Cw HISTORICAL REVIEW PROGRAM
VJXXiAVEUU FOB.: KT. Kexl Becknsr
Chlcf, fuels Wrleion
OfTlc* of International Beeoarce*
Department of Dtotfl
Study, Soviet JWtroleum Policy
1. In acoardana* vith your recueat tb* foUcvine Information bu been prepared ft contribution to your preUalcnrj report to the IATO Btady Oraup on SovietPolicy. on detailed etatrasnt la being prepared and vUl be forwarded to you byI.
5 tbe aino-Borlet Bloc's aelf-BuXOclaacy Id petroloun, and Its ability to export petroleum, to tbe Tree World win depend primarily os tbe production afU Tb* Soviet Seven-Tear Plan originally oaUed for tb* productionillion matrle ton* of crude oil Baccatly tbe Chaliaao of th*petroleum Industry delegation to Un OS 1ivM rated? prediction will b*metricad other members ofeat lap, *ald that5 plan goal of 3ko allllon ton* will a* aaaawaoad by aar/vber* fromo SO par-cant. Tbi* wouldrodoctlofll allllont ia *stlaatcd that tbeBio* will bare *ppTOglaat*lyillion metric torn*il linoay) of petroleum available ror export to tb* Pro* World
3- Tb*va* derivedhe baal* of consideration, for all Slno-Corlat Hoc oountxlaa, of suab tb* *xt*ot and Quality of petroleum5 prodactloa ef petroleum, anticipated doraestlc consumption (lor lading allltarychanging patterns of energy supply and Qawnd resulting froaetroleus and natural gas, tb* relatlonablp between energy ccesuaptioneonsuaption of petroleum) and past aad probable future general industrial ocrelopaant, capabilities to raflne, store, and transport petrole changing; historical patterns of trade ln petroleum, andd* of tb* Sinc-Scrlet Bloc for foreign exchange and imports of capital eculpaest.
k. In Baking the estimate of availability for export to the beat no attempt wa* made to allow, for variations possible if, for political reasons, ths Soviet Bloc should, decide to expand exports to the fro* World at the expense of consumers In the USSR, the European Satellites, or Conninist Chine. At the present time, petroleum is tba largest single earner of foreign exchange for tha USSR. While economic conslnaratlons msy be secondary to polltleal conslomrations in aalee to underdeveloped countries, tbe reverse is almost certainly true In th* industrially developed countries of the world, especially In Western finrop*. It is believed that the principal objective of th* Soviet Onion ln Western airope la to eell petroleum to earn foreign exchange to pay for lncreesed leport* of eoulpnmnt needed te achieve the production goals of the Beraa-Iear Plan, end that the Soriet interest is primarily inng *mrnlngs rather than in pursuing political objectives.
It la caphmsixed that thedlllca too* la an evtimat* of probahl* Tall ability ofor export to th* West. Soviet ability to develop additional red"iidmg capacity, internal transport facilities, tanker lift capacity, and* of comree, setrket* will affect the degree to which th* Bloc actually vlll succeed in exporting thia Quantity of
MEMORANDUM TOR: Chief, Economic Reseerch Aree
Acting Chief, Fuels end Power 3ranch ASM*
ORR Support for US Delegate to NATO Oil Study Group
is to inform you of the current status of ORR supportUS Delegate to the NATO Oil Study Croup. The US Delegate is
Mr. Earl Beckner, Chief, Fuels Division, Office of Internationalof State. ecknerreliminary meeting ofGroup in Paris Subsequently, hefrom CIA and other Government agencies. In response tove forwarded toeport on Soviet Capability5 - prepared
information on the USSR petroleumnuetion for inclusion in the contribution prepared for Mr. Beckner by the Office of Oil and Gas, US Department of the Interior.
CIA has primary responsibility for economicthe Soviet petroleumuggestedBeckneright accompany him to tne next meeting of theas an advisor. Mr. Beckner appeared to be pleased vith theoffered to initiate action in the Department of State that wouldpossible. He later informed me that although he had tried tonecessary approval the opposition on the political side was that nothing could be done.Original document.