DIRECTORATE OF INTELLIGENCE
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The WEEKLY BE VIEW,ry Friday morning by the Cfke of Current Intelligence,> enetyresdevelopments ol trie week through noon on Thursday. II freotiently includes malerioi coordinated with or prepared by tha Office ol Economic Research, me Olliee of Strategic Researcn. and lh* Directorate of Science and Technology. Topics reou-rlng morereatment andpublished separately as Special Repots arehe contents.
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Vuvn.iJ UiKiiih
ISRAEL: MORE OF THE SAME
Tel Aviv intends to press on with its "war" against the Arab fedayeen in the wake of Munich. The Israelis followed upeptember air Strikes into Syria and Lebanonhour ground-air operation into southern Lebanoneptember. Damascus clearly sees itself as the target for the next Israeli attack, and there are indications that the Israelis are preparing (or just such an action.
Strike Into Lebanon
Al first light oneptember, an Israeli armoredat- crossed into soulhern Lebanon to "clean-out" ledayeen concentrations just below the Litani River-someiles inside the border. Ihe Israeli operation involved the flushing out of fedayeen in somehe area, and an air strike at Ihe towniles from the border. Nabiteyah was reputed to be the fedayeenheadquarters. Combined with this action were more air strikesozen or so fedayeen bases in (he Arqub aiea stretching Into themost eastern corners. Israeli Chief of Staff Elazar said the Israeli action waseprisal for the killing of two Israeli soldiers inermon area, but part of Israel's "war" against the fedayeen.
efforts to curb fedayeen activity. Tel Aviv has consistently held the host government equally responsible for guerrilla actions, and the real and potential threat of an Israeli strike is designed to force (he governments to act.
The Lebanese Response
In this case, the Lebanese respondedovernment "ultimatum" issued oneptember to the fedayeen to evacuate villages near the border. The army apparently hopes to enforce the order. If the army really cracks down on the fedayeen, the action could bring down the Lebanese Government or lead to civilsince the country is sharply divided in attitude toward the fedayeen. Radical Sunni Muslims and leftists in parliament have called for complete freedom of action for the fedayeen. Prime Minister Sa'am. who denied that anywas sent, has met with Fatah chief Arafat to work out an accommodation. Arab League Secretary General Riad has also arrived in Beirut to mediate between the Lebanese Army and the fedayeen. H* will be trying to soften theof fedayeen activity, it being the position of both Egypt and Syria that the fedayeen should be encouraged to do their things but from some one else's territory. Any deal that does not remove the commandos from the south will risk further strikes from Israel.
ebanese houses were bluwn up in theinimum ofedayeen were killed, and two bridges over the Litani wereElazar indicated that the army would have killed hundreds of fedayeen if they had not fled. Lebanese Army units wero involved and lostilled as well as someounded or missing. Figures on Lebanese civilian casualties are incomplete, but apparently were high. Tho Israelis lost throe killed and had six wounded.
Although th* Israelis killed relatively few fedayeen. Tel Aviv achieved another objective by pushing Ihe Beiiut government into renewed
Syria is Next
Syria Is another targel for further Israeli military action. Arabby Syrianto shell Israeli settlements in the Golan Heights. Such actions have continued after the Israeli air stnkeseptember and the Israeli thrust into Lebanon. Th* semi-official Israeli newspaper Daiar has warned that (he Operations in Lebanon weie just partith much broaderhe paper said that there were "manyterrorist bases in
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P4g. 4 WEEKLY RE
Rooting the fedayeen out of Syria mayore difficult task than it is in Lebanon. The terrain is more dillkult. the distances involved are greater, and Ihe Syrian regular appear roady to potight. Israel prefers operations that incur tha fewest casualties, so Israeli military action against Syria will probably keep to the air as much as possible. Air strikes against fedayeen bases io Syria or perhaps someoperations at it used in Egypt may be in the cards. If the Israelis want to hurt Syria severely, they could strike at the ports of Latakia or Banyas, or at the oil refinery at Horns UjmmM
Original document.
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