Created: 9/22/1972

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The WEEKLY SUMMARY. Inued every Friday irternkvj by the Of fie* of Current Imminence, report* and analyzes sJgnrf-katntperwou of the tweak through noon on Thi/rsoey. II fraqwantty includes material coordinated withy tfie'Olfrce of Economic Research, tn* Office of Strategic Research, arvdDirectorate of Selene* and Technology^equiring more comprehensive rreebrvant andpublished separately ai Specie* Reports erehe

The WEEKLY SUMMARY contain, Classifiedtfectlrvjl'th* rational security of the Unitedithin the meaning of. of theode, an arnersoed. its transmits son or revelation of itsto o* receipt by an urveuthorUedrohibited by



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j! Tel Aviv Intends to press on with its "war" against tht Arab fedayeen in the wake of Munich. Tht) Israelis followed upeptember air strikes into Syria and Lebanonhour ground-air operation into southern Lebanoneptember. Damascus clearly sees itself as Ihe target for the next Israeli attack.

The Lebanese Response

efforts to curb fedayeen activity. Tel Aviv has consistently held the host government equally responsible for guerrilla actions, and the real and potential threat of an Israel) strike is designed to force the governments to act.

At first light oneptember, an Israeli armored force-estimated atrossed into southern Lebanon to "clean-out" fedayeen concentrations just beiow theiles inside the border. The Israeli operation involved the flushing out of fedayeen in someillages in the area, and an air strike at the towniles from the border. Nabiteyah was reputed to be the fedayeenheadquarters. Combined with this action were more air strikesozen or so fedayeen bases in the Arqub area stretching into themost eastern corners. Israeli Chief of Staff Elarar said the Israeli action waseprisal for the killing of two Israeli soldiers In the Mt. Hermon area, but part of Israel's "war" against the fedayeen.

In this case, the Lebanese respondedovernment "ultimatum" issued oneptember to the fedayeen to evacuate villages near the border. The army apparently hopes to enforce the order. If the .vmy really cracks down on the fedayeen, the action could bring down the Lebanese Government or lead to civilsince the country Is sharply divided in attitude toward the fedayeen. Radical Sunni Muslims and leftists in parliament have called for complete freedom of action for the fedayeen. Prime Minister Sal am, who denied that anywas sent, has met with Fatah chief Arafat to work out an accommodation. Arab League Secretary General Riad has also arrived in Beirut to mediate between the Lebanese Army and the fedayeen. He will be trying to soften theof fedayeen activity, It being the position of both Egypt and Syria that the fedayeen should be encouraged to do their things but from some one else's territory. Any deal that does not remove the commandos from tha south will risk further strikes from Israel.

ebanese houses were blown up in theinimum ofedayeen were killed, and two bridges over the Lltanl wereElaztr Indicated that the army would have killed hundreds of fedayeen if they had not fled, Lebanese Army units were involved and lostilled as well as someounded or missing. Figures on Lebanese civilian casualties are incomplete, but apparently were high. The Israelis lost three killed and had six wounded.

lthough the Israelis killed relatively few fedayeen, Tei Aviv achieved another objective by pushing the Beirut government Into renewed

Syria is Naxt

Syria is another target for further Israeli military action. Arabby Syrian regulars-continue to shell Israeli settlements in the Golan Heights. Such actions have continued after the Israeli air strikeseptember and the Israeli thrust into Lebanon. The semi-official Israeli newspaper Davar has warned that ihe operations in Lebanon were just partith much broaderhe paper said that there were "many more" terrorist bases in

Lebanon that had not been hit. and that there are "many terrorist bases in neighboring Syria asll within the reach of the Israeli defense forces.

Rooting the fedayeen out of Syria mayore difficult task than it is In Lebanon. The terrain is more difficult, the distances Involved are greater, and the Syrian regulars appear ready to putight. Israel prefers operations that incur the fewest casualties, so Israeli military action against Syria will probably keep to the air as much as possible. Air strikes against fedayeen bases in Syria or perhaps some helicopter <orrt-mando operations as it used in Egypt may be in the cards. If the Israelis want to hurt Syria severely, they could strike at the ports of Latakia or Banyas, or at the oil refinery at Horns. |


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