Intelligence Memorandum
FOR FiLLAS! DATE: 7
of African and Latin American Analysis
5
Top Advisers, Prosecutor General HoldFuture
President Samper'x future rests largely with four ColombianGorerrunenl Minister Horacio Serpa, Defense Minister Fernando Bolero, Foreign Minister Rodrigo Pardo, and Prosecutor General Alfonsostand to play key roles as Samper attempts to refute recently revived allegations that he has ties to narcotics traffickers.
Serpa, Botcro, and Pardo. in addition io holding the most prominent ministerial portfolios, arc Samper's closest advisers.continued support will be critical to his efforts to maintain credibility with the legislature and ihe public.
Thus far, they have expressed strong public backing for him.
are ambitious and have reputations lo protect, suggesting, tney may reconsider their support should definitive proof of Samper's ties to drug interests become public.
Valdivieso, who has no apparent connections to Samper, heads the independent office charged with investigating the allegations against the President. The Prosecutor General willivotal rote in determining th* pace, scope, and seriousness ofthe investigation into the allegations. He already has arrested and charged several leading Liberal Party politicians for illicit enrichment and appears committed to pursuing allegations of narcotics corruption.
The Prosecutor General is moving with caution In investigating the President, however, and diplomatic reporting indicates he is sensitive to issues of sovereignty, suggesting he would resist overt pressure from VS officials. Nevertheless, he has worked well wilh US officials in the past and is likely to be responsive to US inquiries and expressions of support.
6
QU1?
.'ii. OADR DRV HI: HDLHU
MQKMN
Samper's Team Publicly Backing
President Ernesto Samper's top advisers- <Jovcmmcnt Minister HoracioMinister Fernando Botero. and Foreign Minister Rodrigo Parpublic backing to his effort* to stive off the most recent media charges thataccepted contributions from narcotics traffickers and thai he has metkingpins. Accordingpress accourrts, Samper's advisers hive
someraw oarage the publication of negative storiesSamper government For example, they succeeded in convincing the publishersnewsweekly Semana to substantiallytory published in early Aprilalleged meeting with Cali kingpinsccording to USand his top advisers have also persuaded congressional, business, andleaden! to publicly back the administration.
Botero, and Pardo have close and longstanding ties to the President, who relics heavily on them for advice on key policy matters. All held top positions in4 presidential campaign and backed him in his unsuccessful bid for the liberal Party's presidential nomination
id Support for the "Chameleon" President Could Be Weak
olitician who has displayed little loyalty to others in the past, however.have reason to question the depth of his advisers' loyalty to him.
reports reveal that supporters and opponents alike view Samper as a
political chameleon who has shifted his ideology, policy positions, and allies over trie years to snitlus own potitical purposes.5 eomersannr.
for example. Liberal Party boss Eduardo Mesne described damperopportunistic" and unresponsive to anything but his own19H9 tin: Simpernuntica- opportunisi"
seeks popular support wherever bo can find it, "sleepsublic opinion poll by hisnd constandy checks die prevailing political winds beforeosition on controversial issues.
Various reporting also suggests thai Samper's top advisers arc themselvesand concerned wiih protecting their reputations and politicalis the most ambitious of Samper's advisers and views his post as apadresidential bid. accordingreports. The
Defense Minister, however, has been die subject of speculation ihat as Samper's campaign manager he must have known about alleged trafficker donations lo the fnmf:eH Serpa, too. has long harbored presidential ambitions
note, and already has expressed concern over the possible impact on his reputation of allegations against Samper.]
In addition, Samper's team of top advisers has been plagued by rivalry andbetween Bolero and Serpa. The stress of defending Samper againstcould exacerbate existing tensions and lead one or more of the advisorsranks with the President- Although all of the top advisers are members ofParry, they hold diverging views on some key policy
For example. Bolero bails from the party's right wing and
ougher line on countemarcotics and counterinsurgency issues thanwho is the standard bearer of the party's more traditional left wing andare closer ro those of theThe two
Ministers have argued publicly over counterinsurgency policy,
report that Samper had to intervene to mend fences between themfor his part, has stayed out of the Boteto-Serpa disputes, but his policycloser to those of Serpa and Samper, accordingreports.
Prosecutor General Poised To Play Lead Role
Samper's fate may hingereater extent on Prosecutor Generalwhose office is constitutionally charged with investigating alland is independent of the executive. Although heember of theParty, Valdivieso has no apparent personal ties to die President and waspreferred choice for theThe
Prosecutor General stunned the Bogota political establishment in late April when he announced the arrest of Liberal Party stalwart Mesne on charges of illicit enrichment in connection widi drug trafficking and the unprecedented investigations into several high-level Liberal Parrythe President of the Chamber of Representatives and the Comptroller of the Republic. The announcement of the arrests and investigations came just as Samper appeared lo have put an earlier round of media allegations against him to rest, according to press accounts.
Valdivieso appears to be proceeding with caution in investigating allegationsPresident. He has emphasized repeatedly in public remarks that theand arrests of Liberal Party politicians arc not related toSamper. According to bothhowever, in his
prosecution of these Liberal Party politicians the Irosccutor General is relying ondocuments that allegedly reveal donations by Call traffickers loValdivieso has consistenuy toldhe will
proceed diligently but methodically in pursuing tbe *Jnn7Hirfp< against the President.
Reflecting his characteristic caution. Valdiviesotaking
office in4 that he intends to do his job with all due professionalism, but that he isero and has to "think of his wife anddding that he would resign if pressured too much by cither the executive or the traffickers. Valdivieso cited the assassinations of fimiiet presidential candidate Luis Carlos Galon and former Justice Minister Rodrigo Lara as examples of what happens to officials who become "obsessed" with fighting narcotics traffickers. Valdivieso has one year to pursue the investigation; he was appointed by the Supreme Court to complete the remainder of his predecessor's term and cannot be reappointed]
Outlook and Implications
Because of their close ties to the President, Samper's key advisers are likely to continue to back himublic revelation of definitive proof directly linking the President to drug traffickers. Samper's top advisers are ambitious, however, suggesting they could reevaluate their continued support for him to protect their reputations and political futures. Without their support, Samper would be increasingly vulnerable to attacks hy political opponents and hard pressed lo recoup his political standing. He probably would also have difficulty finding replacements willing to serve in an administration so dogged by scandal, j-
Tbe infighting among Samper's key advisers, which thus far has caused only minor problems for the President, could intensify and lead to major fissures in the Cabinet, particularly if more damaging information emerges. Because he is the most ambitious of the three key advisers and because his policy views differ most from those of Samper and the other advisers. Botero could be the first to withdraw hLj supportvidence is found that links the President to traffickers.
Valdivieso holds tho key to the success of the investigation of Samper's alleged drug ties, and the President lacks tlie institutional power or personal clout with Valdivieso to rein him in. Valdivieso remains vulnerable to political pressure and trafficker threats, however, and may slow the investigation or quit hisshould tbe pressure get too high j
Valdivieso has beenrc cooperative with US officials.
[Like most Colombian officials, however. Valdivieso is sensitive to perceived uifringerncnts on national sovereignly and probably would not respond well to overt US pressure to delve more deeply into the allegations against the President.
Nonetheless, his willingness to work wilh US officials in the past suggests that he would respond positively to US inquiries on the progress of the investigations and io continued expressions of support for his work, particularly if ihey appeal to his pride and sense of duty. Such keen USaddition io continued domestic mediabe necessary to keep Valdivieso on track as political and trafficker pressures mount to sway him from the investigations.
Original document.
Comment about this article, ask questions, or add new information about this topic: