COLOMBIA: TOP ADVISERS, PROSECUTOR GENERAL HOLD KEY TO PRESIDENT'S FUTURE

Created: 5/15/1995

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Intelligence Memorandum

! Office of African and latin5

Colombia: Top Advisers, Prosecutor General Hold Key to

President's Future

President Samper's future rests largely with four ColombianGovernment Minister lloracio Serpa, Defense Minister Fernando Bolero, Foreign Minister Rodrigo Pardo, and Prosecutor General Alfonsostand to play key rolesSamper attempts lo refute recently revived allegations that he has ties lo narcotics traffickers.

Scrpa. Botcro. and Pardo, in addition to holding the most promineni ministerial portfolios, are Samper's closest advisers. Their continued support will be critical to his efforts lo maintain credibility with the legislature and the public

Thus far, they have expressed strong public backing for him.ambitious and have reputations to protect, suggesting they may reconsider their support should definitive proof of Samper's ties to drug interests become public.

VaJuivieso. who has no apparent connections to Samper, heads the independent office charged with investigating the allegations against the Resident. The Prosecutor General willivotal role in determining the pace, scope, and seriousness of the investigation into the allegations. He already has arrested and charged several leading liberal Party politicians for illicit airichrnem and appears committed to pursuing allegations of narcotics corruption.

The Prosecutor General is moving with caution in investigating the President, however, and diplomatic reporting indicates he is sensitive to issues of sovereignty, suggesting he would resist overt pressure from VS officials. Nevertheless, he has worked weU with VS officials in the past and is likely to be responsive to US inquiries and expressions of support.

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Samper's Team Publicly Backing lllm...

President Ernesto Samper's lop advisers- Government Minister HoracloMinister Fernando Botcio, and Foreign Minister Rodrigopublic backing to his efforts to stave off the most recent media charges thaiaccepted contributions from narcotic* traffickers and that he has metkingpins. According torcs? accounts, Samper's advisers-with some success^ouHcwnagc the publication of negative stnriesSamper government. For example, they succeeded in convincing the publishersnewswcckly Semana to substantiallytory published in early Aprilalleged meeting with Cali kingpinsccording to USand his top advisers have also persuaded congressional, business, nnrileaden to pubbcly back the administration.

Botero. and Pardo have close and longstanding tiesheavily on them for advice on key policy nutters. All held top positions in4 presidential campaign and backed him in his unsuccessful tad for die Liberal Party's presidential nomination^

ut Support for the "Chameleon" President Could Re Weak

olitician who has displayed little loyalty to others in the past, however, Samper may have reason to question the depth of his advisers' loyalty to him. McdiuffiilJ^pj

p^pjfJJ reports reveal that supporters ami opponents alike view Samper aswho has shifted his ideology, policy positions, and allies overto suit his own political purposes.5 conversationexample. Liberal Party boss Eduardo Mestre described Samperopportunistic" and unresponsive to anything out hishat Samperpolitical opportunist" who

seeks popular support wherever ho can find it, "sleepsublic opinion poll by hisnd constantly checks the prevailing political winds beforeosition on controversialjfjifjj

Various reporting also suggests that Samper's top advisers arc themselvesand concerned with protecting their reputations and politicalis the most ambitious of Samper'sand views his post as apadresidential bid, according toreports. The

Defense Minister, however, has been the subject of speculation thatas Samper's campaign manager he must have known about alleged trafficker donations to the campaign. Serpa, too, has long harbored presidential ambitions

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note, and already has expressed concern over the possible impact on his reputation of allegations against samper.

in addition, samper's team of top advisers has been plagued by rivalry and infighting, particularly between bolero and serpa. the stress of defending samper against drug allegations could exacerbate existing tensions and lead one or more of the advisors to break ranks with the president. although all of the top advisers are members of the liberal party, they hold diverging views on some key policy issues, i

i for example. bolero hails from the party's righton countemarcotics and countcrinsurgcncy issues thanwho is the standard bearer of the party's more traditional left wing andarc closer to those of thebsb^bs] thehave argued publicly over countcrinsurgency policy, andthat samper had to intervene to mend fences between themfor his part, has stayed out of the boteto-serpa disputes, but his policycloser to those of serpa and samper, accordingreports.

prosecutor general poised to play lead role

samper's fate may hingereater extent on prosecutor generalwhose office is constitutionally charged with investigating alland is independent of the executive. although heember of theparty, valdivieso has no apparent personal tics to the president and waspreferred choice for the post,the

prosecutor general stunned the bogota political establishment in late april when he announced the arrest of liberal party stalwart mesrrc on charges of illicit enrichment in connection with drug trafficking and the unprecedented investigations into several high-level liberal party potiticians^rcluding the president of the chamber of representatives and the comptroller of the republic. the announcemem of the arrests and investigations came just as samper appeared to have put arieartier.round of media allegations against him to rest, according to press accounts. |

valdivieso appears to be proceeding with caution in investigating allegationspresident. he has emphasized repeatedly in public remarks that theand arrests of liberal party politicians arc not related tosamper. according to both mediahowever, in his

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prosecution ol these Liberal Party politicians the Prosecutor General is relying ondocuments that allegedly reveal donations byValdivieso has consistently toldthat he will

proceed diligcnUy but methodically in pursuing the alteganonsagairisttnehis characteristic caution. Valdivieso ' taking

office in4 (hat he intends to do his job wiu^lldueprotess^aUsm. bul that he isero and has to "think of his wife anddding thai he would resign if pressured too much by either the executivo or tho traffickers. Valdivieso cited the assassinations of former presidential candidate Luis Carlos Galon and former Justice Minister Rodrigo Lara as examples of what happens to officials who become "obsessed" with fighting narcotics traffickers. Valdivieso has one year to pursue the investigation; he was appointed by the Supreme Court to complete the remainder of his predecessor's term and cannot be reappointed, I

Outlook and Implications

Because of their close ties to the President, Samper's key advisers are likely to continue to back himublic revelation of definitive proof directly linking the President to drug traffickers. Samper's top advisers arc ambitious, however, suggesting they could reevaluate their continued support for him to protect their reputations and political futures. Without their support, Samper would be increasingly vulnerable to attacks by political opponents and hard pressed lo recoup his political standing. lie probably would also have difficuUvfinding replacements willing to serve in anua lion to dogged by scandal. I

The infighting among Samper's key advisers, which thus far has caused only minor problems for the President, could intensify and lead to major fissures in the Cabinet, particularly if more damaging information emerges. Because he is the most ambitious of the three key advisers and because his policy views differ most from those of Samper and the other advisers, Botero could be the first to withdraw his support if evidence is found that links lhe President to traffickers. |

Valdivieso holds the key to the success of die investigation of Samper's alleged drug ties, and the President lacks the institutional power or personal clout with Valdivieso to rein him in. Valdivieso remains vulnerable to political pressure and trafficker threats, however, and may slow the investigation or quit histhe pressure get toojpj

Valdivieso has been open and cooperative with US officials,!

piliHH Like mosl ('olombian officials, however. Valdivieso is sensitive to perceived infringement! on national sovereignty anil probably would not respond well to oven US pressureelve more deeply into the allegations against the President.

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Nonetheless, his willingness to work with US officials in the past suggests that he would respond positively to US inquiries on the progress of the investigations and to continued expressions of support for his work, particularly if they appeal to his pride and sense of duty. Such keen USaddition to continued domestic mediabe necessary to keep Valdivteso on track^spoUtical and trafficker pressures mount to sway him from the investigations. m

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