SOUTHERN AFRICA: BLANDISHMENTS BY PARIAHS AND CUBA YIELD MIXED RESULTS

Created: 5/17/1995

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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Office of African and Latin5

Southern Africa: Blandishments by Pariahs and Cuba Yield

PariahIran, Libya, North Korea, and Sudan -variously continue to seek diplomatic support, trade ties, or opportunities to export

militant hlam lo countries in southern Africa. |

of these countries are focusing on South Africa and Zimbabwe, countries perceived as offering opportunities for commercial as well as political gains.

Many countries in the region are willing to offer diplomatic support and lo conclude mutually beneficial business deals but remain wary of potentially disruptive meddling by state* espousing Islamic extremism.

Inducements offered by pariah stats and Cuba to build trust and assuage fears include financial support for political parties and candidates, gaining programs, and technical, administrative, or medical assistance. Q

The potential for the pariahs and Cuba to gain influence with governments or populations in the region over Ihe near term will be limited by their inability to provide significant economic assistance andoreign policy priority for southern African countries. I

Nonetheless, their representatives and activities in southern Africa will remain unhelpful to VS interests,inimum, and in the worst case, mayhreat to US personnel and facilities.

' For thenf UuS paper, southern Africa includes Angola, Botswana, Lesotho. Malawi, Moombiqoc. Namibia. South Africa. Swaziland. Zambia, and Zimbabwe, | |

Diverse Goals

govern mentsf

been active in coltiva ing southern african

Ending Sanctions and Criticism.diplomats have most aggressively

lobbied southern african governments to support their respective interests in the un and with key western nations.

a libyan envoy visited south africa, zimbabwe, and

three other african countries to request their support in ending sanctions against libya stemming from tripoli's irrvoivement in the

bombing of Pannd

prodding prompted an Organization of African Unityfive African countries, including Zimbabwe to meet

US, British, and French officials at the UN toegotiated solution to the impasse with Libya over the bombings!"

fa provide meaningful trade and aid

The inability of most pariah states]

In South Africa, despite the ANC's declarations of solidarity with the <

Libyans-which mollify militants in the ANCsrnainstream leadership elements in the government are likely to continue to emphasize close relations with Western countries to garner funds and maintain South Africa's international standing. In maintaining this "two-track" policy, Pretoria will undoubtedly act against US interests on some issues, such as casting votes in support of Cuba in the UN. while actively supporting the West on others, such as an indefinite extension of the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty. As long as major Western countries significantly contribute to South Africa's crucial Reconstruction and Development Program to raise living standards for blacks, the West is likely to continue toompetitive edge unmatched by the

financial pressures are likely to prompt some pariah governments to reconsider their diplomatic presence in the region, particularly in countries they deem to be of lesser importance, I-

Some Potential Problems for US Interests

Even if, as wc believe, cash-strapped pariahs^ nt'nacnlv modest

gains, their missions will remaininimum unhelpful to US interests, and atotential threat to US personnel and facilities.

Libya undoubtedly will redouble its lobbying in southern Africa in coming months to try to secure its seat on the UN Security Council next year despite Western opposition.

NationalCouncil:

Original document.

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