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National Intelligence Daily
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SITUATION REPORTS
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demonstration at the US Embassy, the largest in ee'terallear boost for the politioal fortunes of ths m'litsntsetback for President Bani-Sadr, who has been truing to isolate the militants. (V)
A spokesman for the captors told the demonstrators that the Shah's travel to Egypt demonstrated that "non-revolutionary measures" to extradite the Shah are doomed to failure and only the continued holding of the hostages will lead to his return. Tho clerical leaders of the demonstration threatened to put the hostages on trial if he is not repatriated. (U)
The clergy's endorsement of hostage trials is ominous because it may reflect the views of the cleric-dominated Islamic Republic Party, which will probably be thobloc in the parliament. (U)
Foreign Minister Ghotbzadeh yesterday said the Shah's travel to Egypt has undermined Iranian faith in asettlement of the hostage issue and will make it "extremely difficult" for the parliament to release the hostages. He also said Iran will not try to extradite the Shah from Egypt because the Sadat government "has noover its country andpuppet" of Israel and the US. Ghotbzai'eh also said Iran will continue to proceed with extradition proceedings with Panama. (U)
Bani-Sadr complained again yesterday about multiple power centers in Tehran. He reiterated that the fate of tho hostages is up to the parliament and that ho hasfavored separating the Shah's extradition from the fate of the hostages. Bani-Sadr also said he favored putting the hostages under the authority of thoCouncil. (U)
OUTH YEHENi Support for South Yemeni Exiles
Iraq ie attempting to unite South Yemeni opposition groupe under one umbrella organisation.
The Iraqi media has been criticizing Southfor falling under Soviet domination and forlocal
Active Iraqi opposition to South Yemen ia atill in ita early stagea. The publicity surrounding Baghdad'a support for tho exiles suggests Iraq's policy is being undertaken largely for its propaganda value. South Yemeni diaaidenta are weak and disorganized, and aro unlikely to mount effective opposition inaide South Yemen. Iraq muat also weigh carefully any movea that could cause the USSR to curtail delivery of military supplies and spare parta to Iraq'a Souiet-equlppod armod forces.
The Iraqis, on the other hand, may now be more willing to confront South Yemen. The Soviet invasion of Afghaniatan haa chiliad relatione with Moscow, and in recent years Iraq haaumber of major arma orders with Western nations. | |
Prosident Saddam Huaayn may want to punishfor sheltering dissident Iraqi Communiats. He alao lato astabliah credibility with conservative Arab states whose support he needs to implement his Pan-Arab charter propoaal aimed at limiting big power involvement
Original document.
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