CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY National Foreign Assessment Center
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DO
MEMORANDUM FOR: Oirector, National Foreign Assessment Center
P. Lynch
Oirector of Geographic and Cartographic Research
Possibility of Soviet Cross-border Actions Directed
"at Afghan Refugees in Pakistan (if) _
Request for Information on this Topic ifST/
Afghan Refugees in Pakistan: Potential for Soviet Intervention?
DE&VATiVS CLBV
Afghan Refugees in Pakistan: Potential for Soviet Intervention?
Surritaiy,
Afghan resistance efforts are receiving support from families encamped as refugees in Pakistan, and from related tribes who live in the Pakistani borderlands. Soviet and Afghan military forces may attempt to curb cross-border activity when weather conditions improve in April and May. If retaliatory action is taken against refugee groups in Pakistan, likely danger zones are in the upper Konar Valley in Chitral District, in tfohmand tribal territory north of the Khyber Pass, and the area of Parachinar in the Kurram Valley. The Pakistani Government may choose to reduce the strain in Soviets Pakistani relations by removing refugees-from-the' border area.
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Afghan Refugees In Pakistan: Potential for Soviet Intervention?
nv AfShan refugees in the border AfnEn?*t? Ppov;ke retaliatory action by Soviet forces in
defend StfTeS TeBterfrw Pakistantr^a homelands freni what they perceive as ther.tUr" wrlodically to Pakistani ternary to
to acquire ams and ammunition, and to seek medical
treatment, in effect using the frontier areas of Pakistan as safehavens They are included in the foreign elements" accused by Afghan GowSSnt inmM belngfor the widespread dissEce
./aM5tan1uthorities have tried to discouraoea border incident, and have^elr official support to relief aid in the form ofn supplies. But they cannot prevent the movement of small groups of people back and forth across the border, which cuts through mountainous terrain in tribal territory overovernment forces have never exercised more than-Umlted
Apart from rhetoric, the Afghan Government and the Soviet authoritiesd lneactions to refugee cross-border activities Last ran the Afghanat the urging of Soviet advisers-attempted to defuse the refugee situation byrace period for the return of the refugees withouthe period was extended, few refm
. There Is some indication that Soviet officials are now willing to consider retaliatory air strikes against rebel sanctuaries in Pakistan, in addition, the rugged terrain in the border zone would not preclude small cross-border land-based raids by the Soviets, although land operations using mechanized equipment would be restricted to three or four major crossing points. I
Retaliation Oanger Zones
The spring offensive by Afghan and Soviet military forces in the Konar Valley in eastern Afghanistan, which beganarly .March, increased the flow of refugees into Pakistan along the section of the border north
of the Khyber Pass. Present danger zones for refugee-caused incidents are in the upper Konar Valley in Chitral District and in Mohmand tribal territory. During the pastonths, the Kohmands in Pakistan have actively supported their tribal relatives in Afghanistan. Severalinto eastern Afghanistan originated in Mohmand territory.
If the Soviet forces expand their guerrilla-clearing operations into the provinces south of the Kabul River Valley, the primary danger zone will be the Parachinar area of the Kurram Valley. In this region are concentrations of refugees from the tribes which have been most active In the guerrilla activity in the environs of Knowst, in Paktia Province. Host of the routes from neighboring Nangarhar, Lowgar, and Paktia Provinces in Afghanistan funnel into the Kurram Valley, which provides access to the Pushtun tribal gun and ammunition manufacturing center at Darra, in the hills south of Peshawar. The Kurram Valleyraditional invasion route into Pakistan from Afghanistan; at its closestpoint, Pakistani territory is only aboutilometers from Kabul, m
The Numbers
By current best estimates, morefghan refugees are located in the border areas of Pakistan from Chitral in the north as far south and nest as Dalbandin, in Baluchistan Province. Host are in the North-West Frontier Province; fewer0 are in 8aluchistan, The number in the northern areas will swell as refugees from the current military operations make their way to Pakistan. Reportedly they are already on their way toward Bajaur District and Mohmand tribal territory. If Soviet anti-guerrilla operations continue to expand, the refugee totals in Pakistan couldillion by April or Hay.
Most of the refugee influx occurred during the last sixrickle of refugees began to flow toward Pakistan in The number of registered refugees in camps increased from0 in9nhen doubledy Many uncounted AfghansJiave been absorbed Into tribes in Pakistan related to their own.
Currently, there areoose concentrations of refugees, whichroad sense can be considered camps. Of these,re in the North-West Frontier Province andn Baluchistan. The size of these encampments rangeshe number fluctuates as refugees move in and out. Most of the refugees not in camps are in the North-West Frontier Province. Many of these are clustered in groups of three to eight families, encamped wherever water is available. Scarcity of
water and forage in the arid border zone limits the size of encampments and dictates periodic moves, ffi/
Composition of Refugee Groups
No clear pattern on the composition of the refugee groups emerges Children up toears oldhird to half the total number of refugees, and in roost camps there are twice as many children as women. The ratio of men to women is high in some camps, low in others. The camps with comparatively large percentages of males are in Pishin and Zhob Districts in Baluchistan. One of the largest of the refugee camps,0 people near Loralai, for example, isercent male,ercent female, andercent children. At another encamoment inroupowithout women and children, saying that the trip would havefor them. They are seeking weapons, not food and shelter.
Cross-border tribal ties, combined with the tendency to travel in extended family units, has enabled the refuaees to survive without much government support. The need, however, for food, shelter, and sanitation systems is great. Most refugees eventually register with oovernment agencies in order to establish eligibility for relief supplies, including UN aid administered by the Pakistan Government.
Some clearly are not refugees in the normal meaning of the term. In determining refugee status, the Pakistani Government is systematically excluding kuchis, the nomads who annually migrate from the mountains in Afghanistan Into the warmer valleys in Pakistan during the winter. Trying to justify their registration as refugees, and thus their eligibility for government largesse, the kuchis say that although they arrived as usual last fall, they do not plan to return to Afghanistan this spring because of unsettled conditions there. Host of the kuchis are Ghilzais, and are concentrated inthe Gomal and Tochi River valleys in Wazirlstan, and in Baluchistan.
Almost alland non-nomadicPushtuns. In the Peshawar Valley and to the north, they are mostly members of the Safi, Mohmand, Shinwari, and Khugiani tribes; in the Kurram and Waziristan areas they are principally Oajis, Hangals, Jadrans,
Wazirls, Mahsuds, and Ghilzais. Host of the refugees in 8aluchistan are from semi-nomadic Durrani tribes. Pushtuns who arrived from urban areas in Afghanistan flocked to Peshawar, the center of refugee activity, and to Quetta; the minority who could afford it moved on to Western Europe and the United States. Those from rural villages are scattered along the border and generally close to it. It is these rural Pushtun tribesmen, with warrior traditions and conservative Islamic outlook, who comprise the most inflexible and actfve opposition to Communist rule, m
Spring in the Borderlands: eason for Change
A resumption of activity in the borderlands can be anticipated with the coming of spring in April and Hay. Harsh winter conditions have restricted military activity in Afghanistan's eastern provinces, confining Soviet and Afghan military forces to strong points along the main roads and at Gardez and Khowst. Whatever action is planned by them to control or reduce cross-border activity probably will be taken at that time. Officially closing the border could reduce but not eliminate cross-border movement between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The rugged mountainous terrain, with hundreds of seldom-used border passes makes effective patrolling extremely difficult.
The concentration of refugees in the proximity of the border is an issue In Soviet-Pakistani relations that the Pakistanis may attempt to defuse. They may attempt to move the refugees into camps away from the border area to facilitate distribution of relief supplies, to better control the movement of the refugees in the frontier areas, and to reduce the Inevitable tensions that will erupt between the refugees and the local population over grazing and water rights and other economically based issues. The refugees haveeluctance to leave the border area, near their homelands, and may resist the government's efforts to relocate them; moreover, many are not acclimated to. the high summer temperatures at lower elevations in the hill lands.
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Original document.
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