National Intelligence Daily
Thursday
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IRAN
For the firat time oinoe the hostage orieie began, Moeoovthai foreign intervention in Iran oould affect theof the USSR.
A TASS commentary on Tuesday cited part of amade by President Brezhnev in8 that warned that military intervention in Iran could affect Soviet "security interests." All previous commentary has avoided any explicit reference to that portion of Brezhnev's statement.
The commentaryow-level warning to the US not to intervene in Iran. It also lays thefor the Soviets to claim credit with Iran and other countries for deterring any US intervention. i
Moscow has been aggravated by recent Iranianequating US and Soviet policies and criticizing Soviet actions in Afghanistan. | J
The USSR's irritation has increasingly focused on President Bani-Sadr. Twice this month, the Sovietsthat his remarks "distorted" the history of Soviet-Iranian relations and declared that the USSRany outside interference in Iran's Internal affairs. The Soviets, however, continue tobe circumspect with regard to Ayatollah Khomeini.
Elections
The Revolutionary Council decidod last night to postpone Indefinitely the second round of runofffor the National Assembly. Bani-Sadr said that it maynth for Investigations of alleged fraud in the first round to be completed before the second round is hold. Our latest count of the results forember Assembly shows the Islamic Republic Party In the lead with fromoeats. Independents have won abouteats, and Banl-Sadr's followersU)
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EGYPTi Reactions to Shah's Presence
Limited anti-Shah disturbances broke out yesterday at Cairo University and the University of Alexandria. The protests, which were started by fundamentalist Muslim students, apparently did not spread to other areas of the cities.
Except for
extremists, most Egyptians continue to view the Shah's admittance to Egypt in humanitarian terms. Futuretoward his presence are likely to be governed in part by the state of his health, the level of hisin Egypt, and President Sadat's public handling of the issue.
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