POLAND

Created: 2/6/1981

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

POLAND

TH# tensions in Poland following last weekend's Ao* proved short lived. perhaps becausecompromise, both sides have felt obliged to heed ths voieeehardline members. onsequence an isolated localits conclusion this morning on Solidarity's terms, hasa new and dangerous oonfrontation between the regime and % i,

Moderates on both sides will once again have to try climbing back from the precipice. Naleaa la on tha spot to make the first conciliatory aova. Hia'defiant gesture oncall for nationwide sit-inappears to have played into the' hands of regime hardliners They probably will use his threat to support their case that more foroeful'measures must be employed to control Solidarity.

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The increasingly critioal tone of recant Soviet public and private commentary on events in Poland strongly suggests that Moscow is prepering to confront the Kania regime over the need to assert control over Solidarity.

commentaryorm of pressure onparty to respond mora firmly to- arlty'a eecaleti>.wc

ii also appears to be an' attempt to lay tbegroundwork with foreign and domestic audiences for the future aee of sore forceful measures against the union by either Warsaw or Moscow, itself.

Soviet leaders probably hope their critical public stance, coupled with che behind-the-scenes pressure they undoubtedly are applying, will help Polish leaders whoarder line to prevail at next week's party

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planum. The Soviets nay even try to strengthen the hand of the hardliners by more ominous statementsnow and the end of the plenum on Tuesday. 8mjs>

Dnleas the plenum reasserts party control, Moscow is likely to Intensify its pressure on the party to crack down onby conducting threateningmilitary moves as lt did ln early December.

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will be extremely reluctant to useis legitimacy is basedromise to solve problems through political means. If ithoice betweenaring Polish forces to confront the Polish people or resigning, he may well choose the latter. If the Soviets cannot gat Kania to move forcefully, they could attempt to bring about his ouster by shifting their support to Politburo members suoh as Olszowski or Moczar.

recent speeohes have been among the most hardline of any Polish leader,e is reported to be tbe head of the Politburo faction that favors drawing the line on Solidarity's activities.

is knownolish nationalist, which could make him too muchisk for Moscow. His reputationtrong advocate of law and order, however, could convince theime of Increasing unrest in Poland, to take that risk. fjj>

Moscow's desire not to ma- its party congress,onebruary and will lastoovieta markedthe situation inearly March, the Soviets will have to be prepared tbmilitarily if the Polish party attempts toths attempt bsakfiree.

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