NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY (CABLE)

Created: 3/31/1982

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

National Intelligence Daily (Cable)

SPECIAL ANALYSIS

IRAQ-IRANi Implications of the Iranian Victory

Iraq's defeat by Iran in the recent heavy fighting has left President Saddam Hussein, Hie paptTnal architect of the imp, in dire straite. He has no prospaot of iiyrwino Iraqi military fortmse or of pomading Iran to negotiate. Saddam probably is coneidcrirta vithdrautns ccnpleUly fro* Iran, uhile taking steps to shore up Mo wakened position at hasa. Any earlisr Iranian interact in nayoliations is likely to evaporate as expectations of Saddm's downfall increase, hoderats Arab scans ar*pfo-kenaiua about the threatiotorioua Iran. I H

//Despite suffering substantial losses, tho Iranian Army appears strong enough to continue prosecuting thu var. Tehran probably is contemplating another major offensive latex this spring. It might launch aattack in the north to threaten the strategic approach to Baghdad.//

//Iran's primary effort, however, is likely to be aimed at recovering the area between Ahvas and Khorram-shahr. This is the largest piece of territory still held by irag, but Iraqi foreeB holding it are thinly spread.//

--continued

Saddam's Vulnerability

raqitotal identification with the war has increased the possibility that Ms rule will be

*5ffaUur. will hefghwn Sicr

but.including

tatus, and his refusal to share power with hi*ifferences are over

acewup involving both Ba'th Party andfigures i. the most serious threat. Partyprobablyconcerned thattheregimeT Po-

htprojectsfn with Iran, but Tehran would still

antlaUybe collegial.

with .'JJci

"continuei!

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