POfl RELEASE
DATE. Ljllli]
Analysis
zia
a counter to Soviet pressures from Afghanistan _
owever, the President, hii
seniorrals, and -nostjjstionability of the UStrr.ent.
r.ah.-id is concerned that the ITS will To^rSvic'eprotection against India, which
and leave Pakistan to fac. the USSR alon..
The Pakistani leader probably willthat.
zia's authority remain, firm for now bu, hisa strong domestic power base
in the event he blunders, the economy stagnates, popular leader emerges to unite the opposition.
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Top Stefet
increased impatienc*Iaw"and stronger callseturn tothrough elections. The oppositionhowever, and apparently has failed into eroarracs Ziabvstaqing masshis US visit.
Lthnic tensions in Baluchistan and Sind Provinces continue to be irritants, but Zia is more concerned about terrorist incidents over the past year. The incidents have undermined public confidence in the government' r. ability to maintain public order.
The Afghanistan Issue
Zia probably will emphasize the extent of Soviet support for his domestic opponents and other pressures an Pakistan to stop supporting the Afghan insurgents.
Moscow is givingsupport EoTia'spolitical opponents andsponsoring both the terrorist groupformer Prime Minister Bhuttos sonsanctribalalong the Afghan border.
:cal
in addition, illion Afghan refugees in Pakistan haveajor concern to Islamabad. local resentments and concerr in the Army that the refugees willermanent problem for Pakistan^ have lent urgency to Pakistan'settlement to the war in Afghanistan.
Soviets have sought
to peTsliacIe"Tslamabad to change its policy on Afghanistan by offering economic aid and Kabul's acceptance of the long-disputed border. Major concessions, includingof President Babrak's government and acceptance of the Soviet presence^arotjnUIjely to be offered in the foreseeable futu Wj
Islamabad would have to take into account US, and Saudiwell as opposition fromreligious parties and armed Afghan insurgents
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in
Lt decidcd_to soften its position on
he t
1 1msome
re urging more flexibility onesult, Zia is being careful not to foreclo .ity cf substantivo negotiations.
probably will
argue that holding-national elections now would threaten Pakistan's security and that his plans for an Islamic political order will give Pakistanis more suitable forms of representation. On narcotics, he will point out that he has dene far more than any of his predecessors and will reaffirm pledges to do more.
tnat package will
is increasingly con installment of2 billion aid fully funded. Islamabad needs these
--continued
o
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funds to avoid defaulting on current obligationspush for favorable congressional action. Itask Washington to drop its objections toand to ease up on pressingreforms that are politically
US arms are the centerpiece of tho Pakistaniambitious plans for military modernization anddeterminant in bilateral relations. Althoughof equipping6 fighter with theeceiver apparently has been resolved by thecontinues to refuse the delivery of anyyet supplied with the device. It also hasunhappiness at the long delay in programinjithethreat data tailored for Pakistan.
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Original document.
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