Created: 4/20/1999

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Analytic Perspective

ure Bet

A lack of broad support in Jakarta for President Habibie's commitment lo independence for the province by yeaiend if its citizenry rejects autonomy will encourage proimegration militias to continue their violent campaign to cow proindepcndcncc advocates and delay the consultation process^

Support for Habibie's East Timor initiative also appearsmilitary officers, including Armed Forces Commanderhas taken no action against the pro integration militias ormilitaryniililary may

be seeking to manipulate the polling process in lavor o'. tbe autonomy option by allowing the militias to create disturbances.

Possible Outcome*

Continued violence could indefinitelyote on the autonomy proposal. UN officials recently postponed the polling from July toeptember J-

If tbe militia activities continue uncocked, therotracted

various militias ure poised to begin assaults in ircai outside of their strongholds.

To restore stability, the Indonesian security forces must stop supporting Ihe militias andeutral posture. This would increase the prospectsesumption of the reconciliation talks between pro-Jakarta and pro independence leaders and for an eventual disarmament of both sides.

A close vole in ihe UN ballot, however, could spark renewed violence. Indonesia nationalists in the newly elected People's Consultativehas ultimate authority to relinquish sovereignly over Eastmight be emboldened byote to try to abort the process and retain the province.

expect to winide margin-would reject any result favoring autonomy as evidence

of manipulation by piuintegrationists

strong rejection of autonomy would tbe momentum of the militias, who, without military support, would be haid pressed toerious armed challenge.!


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