ATROCITIES WATCHLIST

Created: 5/1/1999

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

DCFs Warning Committee's

Atrocities Watchlist

arningn conjunction with the National Intelligence Officer for Economics and Global Issues, is issuing the second quarterly Atrocities Watchlist.

Atrocities Watchlist2

Watchlist includes countries where there is evidence of or the potential for significant political repression or systematic human rigius abuses tlutt could leadeliberate pattern of widespread atrocitiesajor humanitarian emergency over the nextonths.nclude killings, maiming, or forced expulsions ofthe population. The list also includes countries in which ongoing violence cotdd escalate and leadeliberate pattern of atrocities against unarmed civilians.

Level of Concern

(As compared to the Atrocities section in The Warning Committee's Watchlist

Immediate Concern

DROC: The power vacuum and the war create an environment conducive to atrocities by rebel forces, pro-Kabila troops, and armed groups beholden to neither side.

1 The Warning Committee is chaired by Ihc Nalional Inlelligence Officer for Warning and is composedof the Directors of the National Security Agency, the Defense Intelligence Agency, andImagery and Mapping Agency;Assistant Secretary of Stale for Intelligence and Research:Deputy Director for Intelligence. Central Intelligence Agency. Comments and inquiries may be directedNational Intelligence Officer for Warning

A humanitarian emergency causedatural disaslci oronllict whereuman rights abuses occur is not included on litis

Civilians report that both sides are raping, torturing, and killing members of rival ethnic groups and noncombatants suspected of providing support to the enemy. Poor iroop discipline and the difficulty of controlling disparate rebel groups will most likely continue to contribute to human rightsPro-Kabila forces, taking significant casualties and losing territory, may take out their growing frustrations on civilian

ft FRY-Kosovo: FRY army, police, and paramilitary units in Kosovo will continue ethnic cleansing and other atrocities against Albanian Kosovars. In addition, NATO military action may provoke attacks by ethnic Serbs on minorities in other areas of the FRY.

forces may attack ethnic Albanians and Kosovar refugees inSlavic Muslims in theof whom have already fled low-levelless likely, the ethnic Magyars in the Vojvodina, which could bring retaliation from Hungary. P

Iraq: Baghdad continues to repress large segments of the Iraqi populace as part of its efforts to reestablish total territorial control and stifle the activities of Western or Iranian-supported political opposition groups. In recent months, Saddam has launched brutal crackdowns to curb the influence of Shia clerics and is likely to continue repressive measures as he battles emboldened Shia insurgent groups.

the9 assassination of Shia cleric Al-Sadr, Baghdad has announced the execution ofhia clerics and seminary students and deployed military units to Shia-occupicd areas. It has also reportedly attacked civilian religious worshippers in an attempt to prevent prayer services.

Sierra Leone: The prospects for more widespread atrocities will grow if the rebels believe their position on the battlefield or at the negotiating table is weakening. Pro-govemment militias and Nigerian soldiers also are likely to resume summary executions and other human rights abuses if fighting intensifies.

humanitarian crisis is probably under way in two-thirds of tlie country, to which relief workers have had no access since rebelsajor offensive inundreds of thousands of displaced civilians increasingly risk starvation and disease as the rainy season approaches, and fighting prevents farmers from preparing their fields. All civilians,children, are at high risk for abduction, forced removal, rape,torture, and execution by rebels, who routinely use atrocitiesilitary tactic. P

w Burundi: Despite significant progress made in the Arusha peace process to resolve Burundi's political problems, underlying ethnic antagonism between the

majority Hutu population and the minority Tutsi military government lingers. Burundi's history shows the potential lor extreme violence lies just below the

surface.

The International Red Cross (ICRC) signed an accord with the government of Burundi onarch to resume operationshree-year absence. ICRC operations will resume slowly and will not include the "field protcc-tion activities" that led to tensions with the Burundian military in the past.

Congohe potential for major human rights violations remains high, despite the slowing of military operations by both sides.

Repressive measures by the government have fueled additional armedand undermined meager efforts at reconciliation. Sporadic, low-level fighting is likely to persist, as are human rights abuses by poorly trained and undisciplined forces on both sides. P

Liberia: The risk of atrocities against civilians, especially civic leaders and ethnic minorities, remains highesident Charles Taylor and his security forces stockpile weapons and threaten violence in even minor disputes.

An unpredictable event, such as an attempt on Taylor's life, could unleash widespread fightingudden humanitarian crisis. Most ofthe security forces are underpaid, undisciplined, and prone to overreact. They wouldunarmed civilians if social order broke down. Liberian troops returning fromone could act with the same brutality at home.!-

Northim Chong-il's continued pursuit of failed socialist economic policies and the repression of any political opposition leave the North once again unable to feed itself or to export goods in return for food. International aid is targeted mostly al children and still plentiful food in the urban markets is available only to those with money. Thisarge number of poor North Koreans increasingly at risk of starvation early this summer before tlie first crops come in.

Additional US food assistance set for delivery this summer and later will help many North Koreans escape the worst shortages, but it will not affect the poverty that is now the root cause of the most acute suffering. Kim could boost food supplies by using hard currency from Hyundai'sillion this year, or enough forillion tons ofsmaller amounts of hard currency devoted to the military and

imported luxury goods.

Rwanda: The Tutsi-led government has restored security to most of the country, but residual tensions between the Hutu and Tutsi populations following4 massacreutsis impede efforts at reconciliation.

The eventual return of Hutu rebel forces from the war in the DROC couldthe insurgency in the northwest and lead to renewed ethnic violence.

* New to Watchlist

Also Watching

he resumption of the civil war in8 led to increased population displacement, economic disruption, and "collateral damage" from the fighting. However, we lack information on the extent to which either side is targeting civilians.

neither side hasolicy of targeting civilians in thiscivil war, relief supplies to civilians have been disrupted or cut off, and relief workers have been threatened and killed. The rainy season will cease around the end of May and fighting between the government and rebels is expected to pick up, resulting in the displacementargerof civilians. The movement of civilians willeavier burden on relief organizations.

Indonesia-Eastith tlie election environment volatile and prospectsiplomatic resolution to the political status of East Timor uncertain, the potential exists for violence to escalate.

breakdown of law and order in East Timor could include systemic attacks by pro-integration militias against persons they suspect are proindepen-dence.

assive refugee flows from Kosovoollapsing economy could prompt Slavs and pro-Serbian groups in Macedonia to turn against refugees from Kosovo and the local Albanian minority.

steady stream of refugees from Kosovo has overburdened local social and economic resources and threatens to disrupt the fragile politicalOver time, it may cause Ihe country to fracture along ethnicajor humanitarian emergency.

New to Watchlist

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