Created: 4/9/1999

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible


Nathttil Security Infornuiiac.

Uratntoriwd Disclosure Subject to Cnnunalof this Dccumeni Prohibited

i Umi/nthme onlai an Hie MM CIA SEIB Cohi-iI Office'eril$nrd Unityntp- ir^Unn Mil


Analytic Perspective

From Bosnian Refugee Crisis

refugees trying io return home will face several of the hurdles that theillion displaced people from Bosnia have encountered: intransigeni local officials, lack of economic opportunity and security, housing damage, and insufficient documentation. As with the Bosnians, the Kosovars' desire to return win diminish the longer they stayas those in Western Europe become accustomedigher standard of living.

Refugees in their late teensill bave the strongest inclination toew life in the asylum country.

Kosovar refugees may avail themselvesell-established alien smugglmg network with hubs in Albania, Greece, and Turkey. |

Factors dissimilar lo the Bosnian experience, however, will make refugee returns to Kosovo easier,ecure environment- Kosovo's prcconfliciAlbanianpercentsuggest returning Kosovars are more likely to find their homes still vacant than did the Bosnians, whose homes bad been taken over by Serbs.

Someercent of the people leaving Kosovo are still inrontline" states of Albania. Macedonia, and Montenegro rather than other countries, and press reports say that is their preference.

Other countries are limiting the number of refugees they will accept, whereas Bosnian refugees inundated West European states before they could coordinate acceptance plans. |

Open-Ended Need

A large-scale international presence will be necessary for quickrefugee returns. Tbe Bosnian experience shows how3 nvj|

The poverty and instability in the region will persist, moreover, unless all ethnic groups gain economic opportunity. The stabilityosovo also is challenged by the depth of the criminal underworld, which the international communiiy underestimated in the similar situation in Bosnia

Set rel

Analytic Perspective

Polarizing Factions |

NATO airstrikes againsi fhc FRY are polarizing Bosnia's ethnic communities. Serb leaders have condemned Muslim public support for airetjikes and protested Muslim acceptance of NATO's use of Bosnian airspace for bombing and reconnaissance operations and of Bosnian airports for disabled aircraft

The Croat press has decned Muslim assistance to0 Sandzak Muslim refugees from the FRY, which is fueling Croat skepticism about the outlook for the return of Croats and Serbs to Sarajevo. |

undernearly groundalt. Croat officials have ended their boycott of Federation and national instiujiions over the assassination of Federation Deputy Interior Minister Leutar. but they blocked progress this weekederation legislative

Republika Srpska representatives continue to boycott tripartite institutions.

The security situation in the Republika Srpska has deteriorated, and SFOR is vulnerable to low-level attacks by disgruntled groups motivated by the Serb Radical Parry. In the wake of the SFOR operauon Last week to interdict the Bar-Belgrade rail line, Serb leaders claim SFOR. which they generally have supported, has put itself in the service of NATO.

In the past week, an SFOR base on the outskirts or Sarajevo and an SFOR vehicle in the same vicinity were firedocket-propelled grenade was launched at an SFOR helicopter,renade was thrown at an SFOR convoy.





Stocks Low I

inside Kosovo will face food shortages this summer unless they receive large-scale aid. Fighting last fall rcslricted the planting of wintermainonlyercent of the normal cultivation Serb forces in rcccni weeks have looted or burned food stocks.

Poor security conditions will hinder the planting of spring grains next month and could prevent harvesting in June and July.

press reports )vo but presume there are pockets of deprivation, particularly among those who have been in the hills for weeks.


iacea people in the Shala Mountains of Podujevo lack food.

n the Berisha and

Cicavica Mountains also are gravel

People experience symptoms of starvation after several days without food, but the lack of potable waterreater health risk. Infants, young children, and adults with preexisting illnesses are more prone to dehydration and starvation than healthy adults.

Susceptible people could dehydrate within two days. I



Original document.

Comment about this article, ask questions, or add new information about this topic: