Yugoslavia Key Points
The demise oi ihe Yugoslav federation continued to move inexorably forward as Slovenia and Croatia announced they were secajng* cusassocumon' from Yugu?Uviaande4hnlc Serbs in Croatia and Bosnia declared their desire to live in one country with their Serbian brothers in other republics.
The federal Army and Croatian military almost came to blows in late January and again in early March. In both cases, federal civilian auihori tiesast-minur compromise. Croatian claims thai Serbia il deliberately trying toonfrontation suggests that the potential for conflict re maim high.
Prime Miniwcr Markovic's eccttwrac reform program has been loudly discredited. The federal govcrnmeni cannot persuade Ihe rrpublica lo turn over uu rectipo. Industrial production continuedfall and inflation hit an annualized rateerceni in February. Foreign exchange reserves have dropped byercent since September and there are rumors of an imminent de valuation of the dinar.
Slovenian and Croatian leaden lobbied hard for intemaljbnal recognition during visits to key West European states, while the Serbian press stepped up attacks against the West, particularly US diplomats in Bclgradc.jH
Yugoslavia
unity underwent its most severe test yet as federal and Croatian military forces neariy came to blows in late January and again In early
Political Process.ertes of tense and inconclusive summit meetings of federal and republic leaders on the future of Yugoslavia. Slovenia onebruary recast the debate in terms of breakup byroposal to "disassociate" Itself from the federation. Croatia followed suit two days later with itss association proposal. Leaders of the two republics probably opted to seek dissolution rather than secede to deprive the federal Armyretext for intervention and enhance their chances Tor international recognition as independent states. Both have indicated they will secede If an agreement cannot be worked out by summer. Federal and republic leaders arc to have another go at working out terms for republic separation onarch.
Serbian strongman Milosevic responded to these proposals by trying to impose his own expansionist terms for the country's dissolution. In tale February, almost certainly al hs& orders,bi an National Council" in Croatia prod Mined the secession of Serb-dc*niiuued areas from Croatia and their desire toountry with their (rabers elsewhere In Yugoslavia lo neighboring Bosnia, the major Serb party appealed to federal authoritws to use all means to keep Seib-domlruued areas Of thai republic in the federation. The Serbian press, man while, continued its propaganda campaign agsinsi the "fascist" Croatian government andPrune Mminer
Control of Soctelj.narrowly avoided armed conflict In lax January and again In early March. Tension* remain high and hoallttka could break out wfth Hole wanUg, tn January, lederai dvflian authoritiesast minute cneoprocnia: that headedhcosoat bereeei the federal Amy and Ooauaner Croatia'somply with federal orders to disarm lis paraeUbury forces. Serotan nauonaltns and iheontinued to put pressure on Croatia in late frbruary. the federalunder orders front President lovic. aCroatian
President Tudjmjn of treason and the Army issued an arrest warrant for the Croatian Defense Minister. In March, Jovic ordered the Army to intc.after Croatian special police forces hadebellion by local Serbs In the Croatian town of Pakrac. Theended without serious bloodshed after representatives of the federal Presidency helped broker an agreement leaving Croatia in control of ihe town ^ ^
Management of Ihe Economy. Economic problems continue to grow, and the federal government under Prime Minister Markovic is increasingly powerless to effect change or even enforce the current rules of the game. It has had to slash Its staff as the republics have continued to refuse to pay most federal taxes, and senior officials say they may have lo print money to meet military needs. Industrial production in January2 percent comparedear ago. inflation hit an annualiud rateercent in February, and foreign exchange holdings have fallen byercent since last fall. Wage-driven labor unrest is growing, particularly in Serbia
Foreign Relations. Relations with Hungary have nosedived since the revdatiou in January thai seniorofficials were involved in the sale of arms to Croatia. Slovenian and Croatian leaders ictobved lunj for international recognition during visits to key West European stales. Attacks against the West, particularly against US diplomats in Belgrade, have picked upin the Serbian press, reflecting the Serbian leadership's growing seigeoviet diplomat in Belgrade, meanwhile, claimed in February that Serbia was making efforts topecial rtiaiwnshlp with the USSR but that Moscow had rebuffed them.
Original document.
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