HEREWITH SUPPORT CABLE FOR EUROPEAN BRIEF OCPAS EUR 91/056 FOR THURSDAY, 07 MAR

Created: 3/7/1991

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

HINA: VIEWING WAR'S AFTERMATH WITH

IRAQ'S DECISIVE DEFEAT LEAVES CHINA'S LEAOERS ANXIOUS

WASHINGTON'S UNRIVALED GLOBAL STATUS AND WORRIED THEY HAY BETARGET" OF US PRESSURE. BECAUSE THE CHINESE MILITARY HAS

RELIED FOR YEARS ON ENTRENCHED GROUND FORCES TO COUNTER

TECHNOLOGY, THE COALITION'S OVERWHELMING VICTORY ALSO

BEIJING'S HILITARY PRIORITIES. CHINA RECOGNIZES. HOWEVER, THAT

HAS LIHITEO OPTIONS ANO NEEDS SMOOTH RELATIONS WITH the US.

COHMENTS OF CHINESE FOREIGN POLICY ADVISERS TO US

SUGGEST BEIJING IS GRUDGINGLY DROPPING ITS BIPOLAR WORLD VIEW

RECOGNIZING THE US AS THE SINGLE. UNCHALLENGED SUPERPOWER THATSTRATEGIC VICTORIES IN BOTH EASTERN EUROPE AND THE CHINESE LEADERS VIEW THE FUTURE AS FRAUGHT WITHEXAMPLE. FOREIGN MINISTER QlAN QlCHEN LAST WEEK STRESSED THAT

THE WORLD ISTURBULENT PERIOD OF TRANSND

ANXIOUS OVER CHINA'S STRATEGIC VULNERABILITY. THEY

RECOGNIZE THEIR MANEUVERING ROOM HAS NARROWED AND WORRY

WASHINGTON'S UNRIVALED STATUS OFFERS THE US NEW OPPORTUNITIES

PRESS BEIJING ON HUMAN RIGHTS, ARMS PROLIFERATION, AND OTHER

THE ROUT OF IRAQI FORCES HAS PARTICULARLY

HARDLINERS' SUSPICIONS. AK ARTICLE CIRCULATING AMONG SENIOR

REPORTEDLY CHARGES THAT THE US WILL NEXT USE ITS ENERGIES

AME" CHINA jHINESE SCHOLAR HAS TOLD "iJBJfJfJfJfJfJfJfJJ the ARTICLE

WILL SOON APPEAR IN THE AUTHORITATIVE PEOPL^WfrcWftNG

PRESS REPORTS SAY AN INTERNAL MEMORANDUM STRESSES SOLVING

ECONOMIC PROBLEMS AS THE ONLY WAY TO DEFEAT HOSTILE WESTERN

AKO AVOID the Fate of EASTERN

9tsplteQUALMS. MOST CHINESE LEADERS PROBABLY

GOOD BI LATERAL RELATIONS REMAIN ESSENTIAL IF CHIHA IS TO REALIZE

ECONOMIC "OOERNIZATI ON GOALS AND TO PROTECT ITS REGIONAL

INTERESTS. DENG XIAOPING REPORTEOLY HOPES TO GAIN LEVERAGETHROUGH CHINA'S STATUSERMANENT MEMBER OF THE UN

1LSQ MAS STRESSED THAT BEIJING SHOULD BE ACTIVE IN INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS BUT NOT BE SEEN AS LEADING AN ANTI-USSR MOVEMENT OR SEEKING TO SPEAR FOR THE THIRO WORLD, US DIPLOMATS REPORT, CHINESE LEADERS SEE US MILITARY DEPLOYMENTS IN EAST ASIA AS RESTRAINING THE USSR. JAPAN. AND OTHERS SUCH AS NORTH KOREA WHO MIGHT DISRUPT REGIONAL STABILITY, IHH

CHINA: IMPLICATIONS FOR MILITARY MODERNIZATION AND ARMS SALES

HE CHINESE MILITARY'S MAIN THINK TANK REPORTEDLY

THE

HAVES ACADEMIC THAT BEIJING WAS "AGAPE" AT THE SUCCESS OF THE MODERN WEAPONS IN THE PERSIAN GULF AND THAT CHIHA WOULDAJOR MILITARY MODERNIZATION EFFORT TO BE TAKEN SERIOUSLY IN THE JHEY ALSO SPOKE WISTFULLY OFENEWED RELATIONSHIP WITH THE USHORTCUT TO ACQUIRE MODERN WEAPONS. INTERNALLY, MILITARY IS LIKELY TO INTENSIFY ITS LONGSTANDING ARGUMENT FOR INCREASED FUNDING FOR RIO AND PROCUREMENTANGE OF ADVANCED MILITARY TECHNOLOGIES. INCLUDING THOSE USED FOR FIGHTER, GROUND

VlSiMl"DEo "UNITIONS: ANO NIGHT

P"ESSURE FOR REVENUE, CHINESE ARMS MERCHANTS PROBABLY WILL PRESS HARD TO MARKET LOW-TECHNOLOGY WEAPONRY TO IRAQ. IRAQ HAS BEEN CHINA'S LARGEST CUSTOMER, BUYING SOME8 BILLION WORTH OF EQUIPMENT: BAGHDAD STILL OWES CHINA AS MUCH ASILLION. CHINESE ARMS DEALERS PROBABLY ARE EAGER TO REESTABLISH TIES TO 8AGH0AD AND MAYARD CURRENCY WINDFALL IN HELPING IRAQ REBUILD ITS HILITAHY,|

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