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ASP
Z MAR 9!
I, IRAQ-KUWAIT: SITUATION REPORT
SADDAM APPEARS TO BE GAINING THE UPPER HAND, ALTHOUGH REGIME CLAIMS OF SUCCESS HAVE NOT YET BEEN INDEPENDENTLY VERIFIED. CONTINUED GOVERNMENT GAINS OVIR THE NEXT SEVERAL OAYS. INCLUDING THE SECURING OF KARBALA' ANO THE RAPID OCCUPATION Of AN NAJAF, PROBABLY WOULO MEAN THE END OFARGE-SCALE ORGANIZED RESISTANCE IN THE SOUTH. SADDAM COULO THEN SOLIDITY HIS CONTROL IF THE REBELLION QQES NOT SPREAD TO THE CAPITAL. THERE IS NO CONCLUSIVE EVIDENCE THAT
1EN.ICALYESTERDAYTTACKS.
REGIME TROOP MORALE PROBABLY HAS RiSEN AFTER PREVIOUS FAILURES TO RETAKE AL HILIAH ANO KARBALA'. Si CURING AL AMAHAH ANO THE TIGRIS RIVER VALLEY WOULO LET SAQOAM SHIFT FORCES ANO CONCENTRATE TROOPS FOR AN ASSAJLT ON AN NAJAF. COMPUTE PACIFICATIONHE COUNTRYIKELY TO TAKE CONSIDERABLY LONGER: SAQOAM PROBABLY BELIEVES KURDISTAN CAN BE DEALT WITH AFTER CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN IRAQ ARE (ED. BBBBBJJ
IRAN RESPONDING CAUTIOUSLY
IN HIS SERMON YESTERDAY. PRESIDENT RAF SANJAN I CALLED FOR SADDAM'S RESIGNATION ANO SUGGESTED POWER SHARING BETWEEN THE BA'TH PARTY ANO THE IRAQI OPPOSITION. RAF SANJAN I SAID SAODAM AND THEH PARTY SHOULD SUBMIT TO THE WILL Of THE PEOPLE. AND HE URGED THE IRAQI OPPOSITION TO UNITE ANO JOIN WITH THE BA'TH IN REBUILDING IRAQ. SAYING TEHRAN WOULO THEN HELP BAGHDAD REBUILD. RAfSANJANI OENIEO IRAN IS SUPPORTING THE IRAQI flEBELS.
NNO SEPARNSUfl INCREE VOL SADOA
Of AN IRAQI
THAT THE OPPOSITION ALONE SADDAM CAN BE TOPPLED BY TI ITS OENIAlS, TEHRAN AL SUPPORT TO THE
it
SHIA PROTESTERS WILL AN I TO ASSIST THE REBELS. ARILY IS LIMITED. If THI BEYONG CONDEMNING
S
OPPOSITION CROUPS TO -II'
REPRESENTATIVES FROM ALL IRAQI OPPOSITION GROUPS WILL HClD THREE-DAY CONFERENCE IN BERUT STARING TOMORROW. BJJJJJJJJJJJJJJ
REPORT. THE L INCI-OE SHIA AND SUNN I ttt Ai IRAQI KUROS ANO FORMER BA'THISTS. ACCORDING TO LEBANESE PRESS REPORTS. KURDISH LEADER TALABANI HAS SAlO THE REPRESENTATIVES WILL SEEK TO CO BEYOND THE TERMS OfECEMBfH AGREEMENT SIGNED BY SEVERAL OF THE OPPOSITION GROUPS THAT CALLED FOR SADOAlt'S REMOVAL. ME ALSO SAIQ THE MEETING MAY CONSIDER SETTINGOVERNMENT-IN-EXILE. |
COMMENT: IRAQI OPPOSITIONISTS APPARENTLY HOPE TO CAPITALIZE UNREST. THEIR OEEP POLITICAL. SOCIAL. ANO PROBABLY WILL PREVENT SIGNIFICANT PROGRESSA UNIflEO OPPOSITION. HOWEVER. THEY HAVE HOT MADE ON BUILDING AN EXILE GOVERNMENT OR FORMING AOESPlTE SEVERAL MONTHSF(QRT ANOARE UNLIKELY TO BECOME
UPPBOVID fORRflEJLSE date iah70b1
0C3
TOT:Z MAR 91
SADDAM'S REPLACEMENT II HE FAILS. ^ FOREIGN JOURNALISTS RELEASED
RED CROSS WORKERS IN BAGHDAD REPORTED YESTERDAY THAT IRAQ HAD TURNEDESTERN JOURNALISTS AND TNTJ PERSONS CLAIMING TO BE AME RI CAN SOIOIIRVTKE REPORTERS INTERViEWEO SAlO THEY HAD BEEN TREATEO WELL. |
SSR; SITUATION REPORT
THE CENTER AND EIGHT REPUBLICS HAVE HADE SOME PROGRESS NION TREATY; PRO-TEL'TSIW DEMONSTRATIONS ARE IN PROSPECT IN RUSSIA TOMORROW.
Hi" UNION TREATY DRAFT
imSTlVA HAS PUBLISHED THE * RAIT UNION TREAT* THAT THE^rEDERAT^^OuNClL HAS AGREED TO LIT REPUBLIC LEGISLATURES
COMMENT: THI CENTER AND RUSSIA. BElORUSSiA. THE UKRAINE. IIVI CENTRALhAGREED ON AN AMgiCUOuS
COMPROMISE 0OCUMINT. CENTER APPARENTLY HAS MADE SOME CDNCESSTHE RE-UBLICS. fO-EV|". PARTICULARLY ON THE CONTROL Of IN GIVING THE REPUBLICS GREATER SAY IN FOREIGN AffAIRS. RECOCNUEO THE CENTER'S SUBSTANTIAL ROlES RE AND MONETARY POUCY. AS -Ell AS IN RESOLVINOUT I AGREEMENT ON THE DRAFT COULD PROVE TO BEORWARD, BUT THE TREATY'S 'ATE WILL BE DETERMINEDNEGOTIATIONS CtN'ER'S ACTUAL POLICY TOWARD IN COMING MONTHS.
STRIKE
BSERVANCE 0' THE INTERNATIONAL WOMEN'S DAY LEGAL MINERS QIQ NOT STRIKE YESTERDAY BUT PLAN TO RESUME TODAY.
YEl'TSIN ATTACKS COMMUNIST PARTY
RERECORDEO RAOlO ADDRESS TO THE RUSSIAN REPUBLIC ON THURSDAY. YEL'TSIN 6LAMI0 THE COMMUNIST PARTY fOR USING THE "MYTH" OFIVIL WAR TO JUSTIFY THE CENTER'S AUTHORITARIAN ACTIONS. PLAYEO
EPUBLIC LEGISLATURE. ANO BIAMEO en- I "* HuSSI* LEGISLATIVE BLOC FOR WASTING TIME HINKINC ON UNOISlRABLE LEADERS'" ANO DIVERTING THI
" URC,NI PBOBitnS. HE SAID HE Will BE GIVING REGULAR
BUC"ogress in thi legislature
,ISUNOfRSTAND ING SETUEEN THE PEOPLE ANDE31RAI ' AS A RESULT OF LOCKADE. mXaaafM
CCWUNT: HAVING EMERGED STRENGTHENSD iR PUBLIC OPINION FRO* THE CENTER'S CAMPAIGN TO DISCREDIT HIM AFTER HIS CALL FOR GORBACHEV'S RESIGNATION. YEl'TSIN IS PUTTING THE CENTER ON THE DEFENSIVE BY STUMPING TMl RUSSIAN FROVINCES ANO APPEALING DIRECTLY TO THEPOHr hlSRCH REFERENDUM. DEMONSTRATIONS TO SUPPORT YEl'TSIN CAllEO FOR SUNDAY BY DEMOCRATIC RUSSIA COUiO ORAh MORE THAN THE EOPLE SIMILAR OCCASIONS NAVE PROOUCED IN MOSCOW RiCFx'ir.
FOR fttiUSE DATE:1 sccncT
Original document.
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