CIA HISTORICAL REVIEW PROGRAMNi-nZEO
MEMORANDUM FOR: Assistant Director for Research and Reports
Pood Shortages and Agricultural Failures in tho
As previously discussed with Projects Control Staff, it is requested that your officeaper outlining tho evidence of food shortages and agricultural failures in the Sino-Soviot Bloc. It should include examples from so many of the bloc countries as possible but should stress conditions in those countrios whoro such shortages and failures are moat strilcing,
The paper is to be used by Hr. Dulles in briefing the OCB on tho subject of food shortages and agricultural failures
Shortage* and Afrlcalturol Failures In the Blno-Sorlets
k over-all Bloo output, tho xoat laportant orop,oroont
less thansopite email Soriet gains. The estimate of total agricultural
production lo in tha prooaas of Doing oomputed and tharofficiant evidence to indioat* that It was slightly poorerU than Hxaept for berth Vlstnamh and loao areas of Chi no, where temporary rooln* may ooour befors th* harvesth* food supply in th* Bloc (drawnarvests) ifdistributedbe board would be odSeuate forduring th* ooasuaptlonb through
The primary oouse of th* ganorally unsatisfactory food *ltuatlon in ths 3iao-Soriat Bloo can be attributed to unfavorable weather inoluding floods.
But underlying these seasonal oause* of dooreased produotion other contributing factor* depressing agricultural output result froa the interference of the various Cosraunistio govurnnents with tbe normal proaeedure* of agricultural practices.
Tbe olosaio illustration of this Interferencen repeated attempts to soolsllse farmollectivisation of Individual farmers Into variou* types of eoolsliaed agriculture attended by aaobsnisatioo of fan operations.
Collectivisation has strongovernment control over the countryside and enabled
governmants to extract larger percentages of fora produot* from the producers at lower prloo*. this, however, ba* been done at the expanse of reducing the incentive of Usee producers to the MM nun Halts of legality' In tbe OSSU, mechanisation bos released rural manpower for growingut has not, as woa hoped, Increased yields.
By contrast, in the European Satellites whore expansion af industry has reoslvod top priority the nssd to take workers from the agricultural labor foro* hashortag* of labor on farm*. Theof agricultural operations be* not Increasedsto needed to aeko up this labor shortage with ths result that agricultural produotion bee been shVaraely affeotad.
Acreages hare been expanded onto ^sre?"'1hereas eneevor* to inoreas* produotion in the traditional farming areas bare not boon attended with adequate Inputs of fertilisers, lnseotioldas and Other aesns of production.
7ood Shortage* and Agricultural Palluroe In5 In tha faoa0 paroent inoroait in population8illion added oaoh year, at praoont) Soviotutput3 waaercent sbovs the prewar level. , tha per oaplta daily Intake of foodssle-las compared with* deolinaaroent. Uoutput therea*aderoant ovor3 level but nochange baa. the composition of the oversee Soviet diet duringonsuaptlononperod with. thisadecu*te--l* veryvy with littti neat, milk, faU and ell*.
mbassy report* indloat* that ia Kosoow this spring aa at le in shorter supply than last year, and, according ton* ohoarrar, perhaps tbe ehortestsars. Prices of Mat on the fro* market are icaavhat abov* last year's prices,horter supply of Mat In state stores. Xosoownon of its seat supply from ths upper Volga valley vhar*ikely that emphasis was being plaosd on increasing lumbers with accompany ing low slaughter rates.
Xa portions of the Ukraine mastaffaotad by tha drought is th* summerh feed shortage* may bar* nacasiitaUd above noraalof livoatook, whioh would tenperarilyha aaat supply but would have aneff*ot on th* long-run goal of Increasing livestock number*.
Th* livestock program continues toajor Soviot prcblsm. Slight Increases
in total nuxbers hav* bean achievad bttV^he produotlvity per1 oontlnuas low
due to the lack of any significantaaot ln feeding, housing, or managememt.
Oonslcarahb* shortags* of sugar hareeported ln Odessa and Elav, and limited shortages la Hoeoow. To J'ebruary Pravda Okralny reported that in tb* Ukraine, th* major sugar-beat area, sugar we* being add on th* black market at twioe tha state price. 2 sugar predictionstimated to be, at
matrio tons,ercent las* thanJ. Thi* dacrsasad prodootlon together with th* pccaibility ef daorsaasd iapsrts trem ths Satellites has put2 ln ths world market for sugar. have already oean oonoluded with Cuba, Kaxioo, Braall, Pranaa, and QreatJ^fain*
The moot recant evidence pf Sov4a> ^satisfaction with ooUaotlv* fara produotlon is th* announcement made ta oaypy0 ooUooUr*outotal of soaawnatb* replaoed fay experienced worker* from th* Party, local government office* end asojtfado enterprises. Pre*da coaparee tola
aova with tee ssnding ofadvanoed workers" to too oountrysidstb* start of oollootlrliatloa. hairmen with urban biokgreuscs andsw Montba praotloal fara axptrlanoo ar* unlikely to oontribuU auch toward increased faraand In foot th* ahift1 Scaly to causa tuoh organisational confusion as toajor hinderanoe laagricultural output daring ths currant your, Tbs now chairman, however, may bs of help to Soviet, leadsrs ln ths oontlnuing drive toward increased stats control over tha farm*. lha fact still rsoalns housrar that up to now there has bean no indication thataverage peasant has radically obangsd bis negative attitude towards tbs collective fara and tbs new measure sppaare toan las* donduoivs toward an inproTsd attitude.
Bvldenoa of Foodaa Urn European Satellites
For tha thirdear Bait Qeraany ia presently experlanolng vhat ean
beorioue food *hart*ge. The food* in ahorteat supply ar* seat, batter,
sugar, and in bobs area* flour. Prosier Qottwsld,daltted that
thoIn tho production of cura? boats and broadgrelns wouldhange in
ths supply of oogar and flour to ths population.lthough there Is pr*aaotly
no *rld*no*erious potato shortsie':lt i* believed that thi* nay dovelop befors
th* harveet of early potatoes due tobelow everag* productionery
poor quality potato for storinglooser froa storage should be significant.
Tha major reasons for the deteriorating food supply in Seat Germany can b*
attributed to th* foil owingi
roadgraln harvestsroant below the3 harvoetQuality of grain vas poor*
hare not fulfilled compulsory delivery quotas of meat,grain, and potatoes.
as in other years, rtfobably did cot deliver grain in thsduring ths first quarter of
German gorarnaant is fulfilling export trade commitments for sugarexpanse ofin consumption.
Ths over-all food situation le oa* which bears olos* vatohing and unlaaa inoreasad and timely food imports from tho ficviot Clou ore forthcoming,oould datorlorat* to
ths lovel in tha spring eal sbortags of flour and brsad
materialiio, thi* wouldore* situation than3 whan this staplein short*
Of th* Europasn Satellites, Poland is the heat off in Urea of food. Tea onlyreported are fresh meat* snd^tenpwary ahortags of flour in robrusry. heat and animal fats have not not requirements Ths neat shortageesult of exporting neat at tho expanse of tba worker and tha rsluotano* of the pa a* ant to fulfill delivery quotas,
grainr will be transhipped to QtbaraatallAt**, Tb* Polish govarcxent'a basic problaa ln supplying food to th* cities" is lotting tba peasant to dallver bis proeac* 1/ 7BX5ally EE/OSSS,ar IJOT-OQO,
Poland has signed trade agreamaafew nsjotlsted for th* Importation of anons of grain It Is boUeved that moat of thia
through government ohannels acoording to plan, 'allure to do this baa dleruptsd ths ood distribution itston oaasing periodic eaortagee. 3. OseahoBlovakis.
Cssoho ranks next to East Oarmasy lcaortagee. heat aad aniasl fats srs reported to hard been In vsry abort supply alae* Indigenous production of tbs so ocausodltleare only abouterosntroduction which reeulted In an saute shortage of neat la tas aprlngU. Although laports of seat In the latter halfosed an tooroaae it la not hollered that the increase was enough to coop ens at* for reduosd base produotion. In addition gOTernaeot offioisls have admitted serious shortcomings in tha peasant deliveries of seat.
U harvest of bresdgrslae was3 percent3 and of poor quality, Cseoho is normally dependent upon ths UfidH for large shipments of hreadgrain to meet rceulrsmsnts. However, In rise" of the unsatisfactory wheat harvest in the USSR, it is unlikely that ths Soviet Onion will, increase exports to Caeoho. evidence of thla, Is tha foot that Osaoho haa baeu shopping in the tteet for grain. It is very likely that flour or bread sill start to (at abort by tha end of Aprilarger quantity of wheat la being Imported thin pressntly known.
1 late aprlng la epogOlcatlng the food situation aincs vegatablea whiob noraally hslp toight food eituetion inay or June, will ha hsrvaeted later.
The Csooh government baa failed oompletely ia ita promise to ths people of an looreaae la food consumption, partloularly aniasl productsailures In European Satellite Agricultural Plans.
Hortharn Ares/5aat Germany, Poland, _and Cisohoslovikia.
failures in agrlcalture^ mereimilar nature for East Cormany, Poland, and Caeehoalovakia. Seotors ef agriculture whloh did not fulfillU plan or register say increase over IS&tfXf the foil owing 1
a, Total grain production, except for Poland, was lover Or sin
produotion in Poland slthcogh largeras still less than plan, of all gralna, hraadgrsiri prodaotloa regis tercel the greatest decline In Seat Ceroany and
h. In das trial orop productionlight lnorease3esult weather, but did not approach plan levels. 0. Animal husbandry which recaired the greatest eapbesis undsr the new oours*
tl. Ths transfer of labor and ogrloultural toohnioisna froa Industry to sgrioulture vas not suoceaefully lapleaanUd.
a. An Inorooae In the anount of anlnal proteins In tha diet of the avers go voider will not talc* slaoa In
t. Poland failed to Inoreaae tha jaonhar of oooperaUvee at3 rete ss plannad. Slight Inoresaaa in the nuaher, arua, and asaber* of oooperatlvss were ragla tared in CxeohoaloveJcUt
olaiaed aoaa suooaaa In aeoh animation of esrioulture, butto bo unsatiafaotory,
to bring large areas of-faUov; land Into produotion war*
9$ OHB Proieot
Pood. Shortages and Agricultural, HOaam la ths Balkan SaUlUtoa
b produotion of broodgrains In Hungary vae only TSparoont3 andore ant of provar. Tha) quality of tho wheat uaa poor for floorand| in foot, so poor that in oortaln areas, It vu unfit fay Mtds is early aa Noraabor, tho cross anivraaflod tho plftbbad totrochietloB of pottttoai Into ths bread nix tc boost tho supply, and thatoall clcixl loaves vara to bo prorldsd to enable urban coaAaurs to hare fresh bread.
Byro treatedtfjfctsraported. Although hog nn abers had lncreaeod, deliveries of hogs aywere rmaatlBfaotcry as of lata$ andweights were below irrfial because of insufficient feed. Tasorta
to alleviate, the eltaatloa were inadesata, Tbo opveraoant was forced toecree aimed at curbing speculation In neat prednote*
A short supply of vegetables largely <Jzo7 flood deaage vu admittod by tho gcvernaont aaovector.
Byhe hlniater of tha Pood Industry aaaittad that the industry
could not supply tbo graving urban defi&ad for food Decease It was tttfblo to procure
adoquato supplies froa too fajsaars and becaio* tbe quality of tbe products vas poor.
The United States sent food sappltaa lordly to tbs flooded areas of Uungary that tbo govermont vu unable to rellAln. Tbs general food situation ls expected to cetsriorete furtber beforo ths karreatace evldenoe indicates that the government is still negotiating forcrU. Hungary's aveliable credit hu been over-extended and it is probable tbat tbe trade will "drag itsa ccntrooted ahlpnante.
One of the straits contributing to tbowiy situation la Hungary is tho stand taken by tbe government reaayg^qjg tbe "new course" oftng the peasants to evitoh froa socialised jtWBfawnd later poinding ths order. This delayed planting infall3 for harvestbsotareeu.
In the springb, field varkval delayed by ebortage of saricultural aaedrdABry and othert sujl^ortod in herebewer tractors were ia operation than before
Partial fsllura ofb expwtad production was admittedly duo to lack of ccaaarcial ferttliaer coupled wltb tbo fact that because livestock DOEbare van iisuloQuate insufficient barnyard, canuj*IraU avullahlq,
Animal broodingy theystcu ia boiPt, nsglOOtad end this coupled
vita ehcrtagoo of food haa resulted in luppliao of boof, nutton, and pork boins incatlefaotegy.
Tha whole oyotem of bureaucratic nana gas oat results in tho collection of products froa faroero beingoafused and unaatlaf so tor/ situation* Rumania
Tho food situation in Bunaniab was not satisfactory andituation shows now significanthe production of wheat and rye uos less than ln proceeding years althoughus sossvhat hotter, Thero ore Indications thatissTger quantities of food laports than lest year. Rationing of foods wana cartain products as ofut prises were increased to the lave! of tho peasant froa narkctd. Ths price of corn, however, was redaoed and "panic nflrine* followed until the inadequate supplies in government stores vara eahaustedt
Heat supplios are no betternd coot recent information indicates that curbs on the supply of scat as veil as on sugar and flour nay be reintroduced before tho end of the curroat coaauiptica rear*.
as in other fl^Vftn. BAtallitog, vsa/thei* badhief raptor In tho uasatlafantory food ritvf.tlcru Other doabributlng footers bavo booa the expressing effect of socialisation cf agriculture, aad ths failure of tho go verm cut to supply adequate services of Hachind'^ytor Stations and make available to farmors needed jpplfiiiente and fartiliaars* Albania
Albaniaood deficitbs grain productionb snowed3 but was ccuslderohly-ghort of ths estimated requirements of The DSSS ia apparently ff**rr*Tg to Al^nl* sufficient grain to
There Is little Infer cationha food situation inat to data* there are no Indications of any wrjauo cbsrttgos..
Pood Shortages and Agrtgultafal Fallurea ln Qomunlat China
Baaauaa of extensive flood daneg* ovor an area6 Billion beotarea, Coamunist Chinaose of abouteroent of itaU food or op production. This loaa van partially offset by increased produotlon in non-flooded areas ao that tha not availability of food for tho ocnaumptionU through5 was aUtti jj paroent below that
The Communisto adait that their plana to inoraaso tha supply of food and cotton have not been fulfilled. Ibis ihUoslfie* ths failure of produoUon to keep paoe with ths dasanas of an increasing population, industrial reauiranents, and ths nooessity of exports to obtal^'ha^dod uterials from abroad.
The seriousnsss of tbe situation is rsfleotad ia the deterioration of the average diet during recent yearrewar average availability ofalorles to an8 oalorles: arsilable duringonaumptlon year.
Pats, oils, sugar and oven rice have, boon rationed not only in urban butrural araas. In certain areashare been forosd to deliver theirto government agents and tohe food for the suhsistenos of.
In view ofood ahortagaa, It ia to be expected that before ths harvest5 there will bs distress-in many areas with starvation in th* most oritiosl looalitios. China.
In Decemberb, it was announced by tha Communist regis* that the planned inoraaae for food crops produotlonercent3 was fulfilled. This announced fulfillment ofb food crop produotlon plan is believed to beb would appear to have boon an unfavorable orop year, primarily beoauae of axtenaive flooding in th* rio* producing districts of th* Xangtse and Huai Rivers.
Ohou Sn-Lai reportedpeeoh onu that an area ofmillionillion hooteres) had suffered from flood damage. atrio ton* ofectare, the estimated orop loss wouldtoillion tons, rnis loss Is0 percent ofotal feed
Tbs winter orop produotlon* .greeter than In the previous year and orop* outside the area ofgood, pite of those favorable faotors, it Is estimated that groso^fc^orops productionbillion
nitric tons or downoroont bolowillion as trio tons produced
In viav of this situation, it ia difficult to see how ths Chinas* Conni mists aohi*Tadrio ton* of food crop* claimedk.
In th* State *ondnistr*tivecoring Sowing Resolution ofhs Communists admit that for twob, tho plan to lnoreass the output of food and cotton, hod not bean fulfilled, According to tbe resolntion, "this has intensifiedioult situation existing in th*of food and ootton, has provided furthW *ric*noB that the devslcpaant of agrloultural produotlon hasntf. th* demand for fara products created by the people aad by the nation's industrialisation, and ha* also made mora difficult tbe task oft three years to laoyOasa agriooltural produotlon."
As oan be sssn froa this suteswn^.th* pressurss froa an expanding population, vhiob ia increasingate of at least one percent per year, and from ths derands for industrialisation and foreignrequirements are inoressingats that is probably slightlyhann production. This la reflected ln the deterioration of tho^werage diet throughout tho postwar yearsresent averaga per oanits caloric intake ofslorisa toar capita food iatakoaloriss. Ths actual impact of this average lower availability ofeen of concorn to the Chinees Communists.
Tbay have exerted effort* to laor*aea ths produotlon of food orops but probably their most effeotive sotlon has bean in effurta to Isrel out consumption between individuals and between regions. There, hasrogram of food transfer between the surplua and deficit re glees, however, thi* haa neoeaaltated rationingonoldorablo segment of th* population. rom th* Oommunlat preaa indicate that tho population in aany or* a* are boooming more and more lnconaad and
aggravated over the rationing of baal| agricultural ocaaoditiea.
In iplt* ofotlons, tb* inoldoaoi of pro-harvest hunger has been common every aprlng in Coamunist China. In Ibaa oases tbio pre-harvest hanger haa gone on into aotual famine oauditions tn limited area*. It would be expected on tbe baal* ofood aupply eitua&on, thai th* spring5 vill be an especially1 tough period for those deficit.
In an attempt to increase prodao^wf and to gain greater oontrol over agricultural output, the Chinese Communists'Mbarkui upon anocialisation program with primary concentrationformation of Agricultural Producern ths baaia of Oommunlat claims, tn* jibber ofncreasedo tali0 at th* and3 ton tb* spring of- Th*
Chineas Communists bare encountered many dlffioultiea during this organisational period. Toe aost eignifioantooordiDg to tha Ocmnunlets has been tha laok af efficient managerial personnelailure by the party aadree in the countryside to exert their leadership In adaaa^oa the masass ae to the benefits of socialisation. The Ohineaat preaa: openly acknowledged the many problems and ahorUondnga> boasttlng the program.
it the beginningU, the Chinese Ooansnlat alsoonpulaory grain produreaent program whichafter tha peyaant of tsx-ln-
kiad, to sell to tho government all remaining grainre-doterainod prise. In order to obtain grain for his ova UeLine peasant vas ooapalled to repurchase this grain froa tho marketing ooonera|iyejirice which averagederoent higher than the price he received frco^tijs government.
esult of the socialisation and oampulsory grain proouramant programs, the Ohinsss Ooaauniats aohievsd greater ooatrol over agricultural outputU and feoilltated the proaursaent of, necessary grainssupplies. However, the over-ill failure of these programs with regard to increasing agrloultural produotion is reflected ia the March$ Spring Sowing Sasolution of tha State administrative Cocnoll. arge neesure thlj raeelutltn rerereee the previous governr-ent policy deoree regarding soolalixation and grain'proaoraaant. In effsot itlewing
down In the formation of AgriculturalCooperatives, particularly during the aprlng planting season,onsolation, of existing cooperativea. In its obvious attempt to createlacsntlsss, the resolution now promises the pesssat the right, after the fulflllaast of the planned purohaae Quotas and tax payments, to dispose of his surplus grain' aa he eeea fit.
Pood Sticr toRoa and AKrlcnltural failures in forth Koroa Snapary;
b prodnotloa of food orope ttt fiorth Koreaaroent above that of tbe poor orop3 (eetlsatedillion aatrioh* availability of
foodot sufficient to cover the reouireaanta of the population.
ilthough the CosBBuxLot node token ehipcanta of grain to north Kara, anahortago axiets during this preoentmong bothand rural populatlona. oruin ruti&niuw woo reinstatedcoupone are to be iisuad to the tn*en population, wbilo Inane ofare being aside to
The rapidly for cod eooimllaatlonhaa arc uaad thereduced the incentive of faraoro to produce. The failure of tte productionto keep pace with consumer doaandattributed to ehortaga ofeculpsent, and draft'
Tbo total grain harreet In Sorta KtfeWopated by tbe Central Statistical Bureau ae.beingercootoapito an increase ofercent in atata investment during the period. The 0light Increase In tho harvest vas due primarilyairly good early grain harvest. This, bow over, representsmail percentage of total produpffiffa*
3ary poor orop yetifj' tooercent increase oonelderebry undorfnifills tha planned output Quotas*
U, North Xorea was bos atumber of natural calannitles.
Wideapread floods in at least four pro vine op have been raportad since July. In
ns of the western seaboard provinces, th* coobiaxtlon of flcoda,d, and
early frost have reportedly cut tbe tataTaJSi crop prodaotioa in this area to 27
percent of normal.
esult of these conditions, ah'aout* food abort*go now exists among the
rural and urban populations.
Tho Pyongyang radio5 tdsdtted thatoelaanitioo"the country haveocrcxaogricultural yields, and that fara are wouldhortage of food and seed graiaie> Tb* Berth Korean cabinetirective5ationing, Qrftln ration coupons were to be issued monthly to tbe urban poputatjyn. Other covernnent measuresoanons of grain to farmers thin year, and aa offer of-lnoeattk*
payments to co-operativco which overfulfilled their quotas Inivestookrnlt produotion and flan catch. .
Food produotion failures have also boon attributed in part to oner tages of fertiliser, agrlculxrcl equipannt, draft poser and to an over ealos aooislisation
The Ho* Korean radio in aid-January, sapcunced that the nuaber of fozner co-operatives had lncroased froa aroundo, oomprlslngoroent of ali faro households aadercent of too total arable Ind. This hasty colli*tivisatlon prosraa io reported to hare acrouaad auch antagonism.
In addition, Pyongyang announcce that hejrfTytng in April, utra-ls-klnd aru toon all farm oooperatlTeo, Tbeto bo based on eetlaatedto harvosta and goals under too state agricultural programs rather thanharvtets. Ibis la oppareatly on attempt by tbe regime to cash la onhigher productivity oa cooperative faros this year. Bovever, itlikely tbatrogram wills on too contrary,epresaives^rlcultural
Sorto Koroan food supply roquireoenio5 will continue to dupond upon Bloc grain exporte. b* tbe foe4 shortage use portlally aitigatod by Cbineso grain ftMj'units totalingons*
t'nlesa food production Is Increased eooelnsrablo quantities ol* Orbitill have to be dlTerted froa raw natorlal and industrial supplies to food supplies, ihis in erf act oould seriously hamper tbs fulfillment of tbe three year rehabilitation and industrialisation programs*
85 Project "
Pood Shortages and Agricultural Pailm-aa in Viet Kinh Viet Hlnh (Ooamunlat Oontrollod)
Baoant reports from mdo-Chinaritical food supply aituation approaching laalce conditions in Sonaaoift ooatrollad Viet Kinh.
b rioo prodaotlon ia estimated to rang*a aatrio tonaaoreaaa of froaoafoeht below3illioo ton*. Branillion ton* ofr. inport ofillion ton* was required to cover the consumption demand of tha population.'
Qonaunist Chino ho* made saallshipments of rlca to Viet Kinh but not in Buffloi*nt quantity to alleviate the't critical aituation.
Viet Kinh (Cconuniet CcatroUodl
Rooont reports froa Indo-Cblnaerious food supply situation approaching famine conditions ininh ooatrollad areas.
Contrary to statements in the official Vietnh press, the rice supply is not sufficientt th* requirement* of th* population. Tb* basle oauae of this condition is tbs shortolting from tha failure of th*arveat. It haa been officially admitted by th* Viet Kinh that the antuan rice crop (tenth month) waaoercentarvest. When ooupled with tbe losses resulting froa the poor spring (fifth month) harvestb, whloh waa reported aa being onlyercentaorsai orop, th*b paddy produotlon range*illion aatrio Irai. This result* lnrcduotian of froaoorosnt below3 prodon&obillion aotrio tons.
Korth Viatnaa'e annualnts, on ths basisilogram* per person, averageeillion ma trio tons. Since paddy produotlonormal year averagesinion metric tons, this resultedsficit ofotrie tons per year. In previous years, this deficit was mad* up by shipment* from the ric* surplus ar*a* of Southern Vietnam.
aBult of theb harvest,ioo supply willeficit ofetric tons.
Since rice ia tha principal crop aa wall ai thastspls oX tha Yistaeaes* diet, considerable pre-herveet hunger in the spring5 will oast likely occur In aany srees unlsss suffioient euppllea oan be obtsinsd froa outside souross. Uthough sons shipnents of rloe here been reoeivsd froa Comauniet China, they hart not been in suffioient quantltisa nsoeaaary to alleviate the situation.