faussEAs swim
PROVISIONAL INIELLJCEKCF: RKiKjT'.V
SOVIET BLCC EXPORTS OF PETROLEUM TO THE
CIA/RRORRj)
The data and conclusions contained In this report do not necessarily represent the final position of ORR and should be regarded as provisional only and subject to revision. Coasments and data which may be available to the user are solicited.
CENTRAL rNTELlJGENCE AGENCY Office of Research and Reports
This reportoar pattern of Soviet Bloc petroleum exports to the West duringear period0 The report covers the origin, quantity, and types of exports; assesses the significance of these exports; gives onof the dollar value of exports; and evaluates the potential of the Bloc to export petroleum It therefore curvesupplement to CIA/RRoviet Bloc Trade In Petroleum and Petroleum Products: Intra-Bloc and EasT-West,
In accordance with the primary responsibility of ORR for economdc intelligence on the Soviet Bloc, this report is concerned only with the quantities of petroleum vhlch Left the Bloc during the period covered. Such data are necessary in estimating the Bloc's supply-demand balances.
Tbo rwtnrt has beei * PTs. bu. .
Page
Summary
I.
II. Exports and Export
in
III. Destination of Soviet Bloc
IV. Petroleum Export Potential5
V.
VI. Capabilities, Vulnerabilities, and Intentions
Appendixes
Appendix A. Methodology
Appendix B. Gaps In
Appendix C. Source References
Tables
L. Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum to the West, by Country
of Origin and by Type of Product,
Page
of Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum to the West,
by Country of Origin and by Type orft
Bloc Exports of Petroleum to the West, by Country
oft
ft. Value of Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum to the West,
by Country of Origin,
Indexes of Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum to
the West, by Country or Origin,
Bloc Exports of Petroleum to the West, by Type of
t 10
7- Percentage Composition of Soviet Bloc Exports ofto the West, by Type of Product,
8. Petroleum Exports from the USSR to the West, by Type of
Product,
9- Petroleum Exports from Rumania to the West, by Type of
Product,
Petroleum Exports from the Soviet Zone of Austria to the Austrian Economy, by Type of
Petroleum Exports from Other Soviet Bloc Countries to
the West, by Type of Product,
- vl -
cia/rp.
(orr
SOVIET BLOC EXPORTS OP PETROLEUM TO
Summary
Sovietexports of petroleum to the West in the postwar period have been steadily increasing. These exports becamesignificanthenillion metricvalued at approximately0 million, were exported. U exports were more than double those3 and were eight times larger than those Almost half of4 total originated in the USSR. For tnc first timeoviet exportsexceeded those of
sent the best Judgment of ORR as
** In this report the term Soviet Bloc Includes the USSR, Albania, Bulgaria, Czechoslovakia, East Germany, Hungary, Poland, and the
production and refining of petroleum In Austria was concentrated in the? Soviet Zone and was controlledoviet organization, the Soviet Mineral Oil Administration (Sowjetische Mineraloel Verve!tung SMV). Austrian production, therefore, is considered to be part of the total Bloc supply. Requirements for petroleum and petroleumin Austria were submitted to the SMV by the central government, and the SMV made allocations to the Austrian economy. Theseare considered as exports to the West.
All export figures in this report refer to the country of origin of shipment- Tne fact that one Soviet Bloc country may exportto the West on the account of another has not been taken into
The magnitude of4 Soviet Bloc petroleum exports to the West indicates that petroleum hasajor Bloc export item and an important means of fulfilling the Bloc trade program. xports of petroleum represented aboutercent of the totalvalue of Bloc trade with the West. Petroleum will continue to be an important segment of total Bloc exports in the foreseeable future because of expected further decreases in exports of commodities such as agriculturalraditional major export item, and the growing potential of the Bloc to export petroleum.
On the basis of anticipated production of crude oil5 and probable increased allocations to the domestic demand sectors,5 export potential of the Soviet Bloc is estimatedillion tons. If allocations to domestic demand sectors were restricted, exports could reach almostillion tons.
During, period the Soviet Bloc exported crude oil and all major types of petroleum products. The principal producthas been residual fuel oil, followed by gasasoline (only minor quantities of which have been aviationrude oil, keroslne, and lubricants In that order. These shipments have gone toestern countries. Except for Austria, Finland has been the largest market for Bloc petroleum.
Although Soviet Bloc exports of petroleum have considerableinfluence in the few Western markets that have become almost wholly dependent on Bloc supplies, they amounted to less than 3of the* world trade in petroleum. Even if Bloc petroleum exports reach their estimated maximumhey will account for lessercent of the estimated total world trade In petroleum.
The petroleum export potential of the Soviet Bloc is limited by production capacity and, to some extent, by consumer demand. The volume actually exported is limited by the East-West trade policies of the Bloc, by Western demand, and by the availability of tankers to carry Bloc oil to Western destinationslmost all of the Bloc petroleum shipped through the Bosporus is moved in the tankers of Western countries.
* The term gas oil is used in the USSR to designate variousdiesel fuel
Although the primary motive behind the sharply Increased Soviet Bloc exports of petroleum to the West appears to be economic, theease with which these exports could be channeled to meetmilitary demands is significant. The present magnitude of petroleum exports suggests that such channeling wouldushion against the deep cuts in allocations to the civil demand sectors which would otherwise be necessitated in time of war.
The USSR and Rumania began exporting crude oil and petroleum product* to the West acre thanears ago. It was not untila, however, that these exports became particularly significant.
During the initial stages of the Industrialisation of the USSR, petroleum exports to the West served as one means of acquiring needed imports of machinery. Soviet petroleum exports reached their hlghect pointillion tons were exported. Shortly thereafter, however, the petroleum Industry of the USSR found itto keep pace with growing domestic demands and to maintain simultaneously2 export level. Petroleum exports to the West declined steadily thereafter, and during World War II the USSRet importer of
Rumanian exports of petroleum to the West began to exceed those of the USSR6eakillion tons. exports also declined in thes and were stoppedby World War II. 2/
Early In the postwar period the Soviet Bloc resumed exporting petroleum to the West. loc petroleum exports had become moreillion tons annually. Petroleum exports1 have risen sharply. This sharp Increase and its significance are the major concern of this report.
II- Exports and Export Trends.
A. ExpdVts
Exports of petroleum from the Soviet Bloc to the Westheir highest postwar peakhenillion tons were exported. One of the most important aspects of4 exports is that for the first timexports originating in the USSR slgnificantly exceeded those from Rumaaiu. Soviet petroleummoreillion tons, were one-third higher than those of Rumania and constituted aboutercent of the total Bloc exports.
for serially .
Rumanian exports wereercent of the total, and exports frcei the Soviet Zone of Austria tc the Austrian economy constituted aboutercent. East German and Polish exports accounted for the remainder.
Soviet Bloc petroleum is exported to the West by tanker, barge, and rail. Approximately three-fourths of the4 Bloc petroleum exports were shipped from Black Sea ports by tanker through the Bosporus. The major portion ofncrease was accounted for by this type of tanker shipment from the USSR. Almost all of the Bloc petroleum going through the Bosporus moves in Western tankers. Only occasionallyU^ tankers carry Western shipments, and these were on the particularly long hauls to Argentina or Iceland.
Oas oil and fuel oil comprised aboutercent of theexports, and gasoline, crude oil, keroslne, and lubricantsin that order. Although some of the gasoline was designated as aviationhis wasmall percentage of the total gasoline exports. There werehipments of aviation gasoline reportedne ofons to Argentina and one0 tons to Prance. The shipment to Argentina vas evidently of higher quality,, but the shipment to France was of much lower quality,ctane. Although the petroleum shipped by the Soviet Bloc to the WestU varied in quality, it vas, on the whole, acceptable to Western consumers. Bloc exports of petroleum to the Westy country of origin and by type of product, are shown in
4 petroleum trade agreements between the Soviet Bloc and the West were in the form of bilateral barter agreements. It is difficult, therefore, to place an exact value on Bloc petroleum Considered. basis, the price of Bloc petroleum has probably been more or less competitive with thot of Western petroleum in world trade. World prices, therefore, have been used toollar value on Bloc exports. The value of Bloc exports of petroleum to the WestU, by country of origin and by type of product. Is shown In*
ollows on p.* ollows oa p. 6.
Table 1
Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum to the West by Country of Origin and by Type of Product*
Thousand Metric Ton*
Type of Product
y
Zone of Austria 9
Bloc Countries
*/
oil
oil
fuel oil
e/
methodology, see Appendix A.
forons (seehe figures are aggregates of datasource .
c Except0 tons (seehe figures are aggregates of reported shipping data. (See source reference in footnote b, above.)
are derived from unrounded figures and do not always agree with the sumcomponents.
.Bill
s
slfcs II
titsh If
sSKs |
B. Export.
The first significant postwar rise in the volume of Soviet Bloc exports occurredhen they were almost double those of the previous year. xports were eight times greater than those 02 the interzonal transfers of petroleum from the Soviet-controlled organization (SMV) in the Soviet Zone of Austria to the Austrian economy accounted for overercent of the total petroleum exports of the Bloc. ustrian transfers became less significant In terms of the totalumanian exports took the lead only to he exceeded by those of the USSR in theyear. Exports of petroleum from other Bloc countries havea small percentage of the total.
0etroleum exportselatively small percentage of Soviet Bloc production of crude petroleum. They roseercent of production0ercent owever, exports increased toercent of Bloc production of crude oil.
Compared with the dollar value of total Soviet Bloc trade with the West during this period, petroleum exports, until recently, have been relatively unimportant. etroleum exportsercent of the value of total trade, and4 they doubled to total approximatelyercent. 5/ ingle commodity category, petroleum hasajor Bloc export item.
ollow on p. 8.
ollows on p. 9.
Soviet Bloc exports of petroleum to the West, by country of origin, are shown in The value of Bloc exports of petroleum to the West0y country of origin, is shown in Quantity Indexes of Bloc exports of petroleum toestoy country of origin, are shown in Table
Table 3
Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum to the West by Country of Origin
Thousand Metric Tons
of Origin
USSR Rumania
Soviet Zone of Austria Others
Total d/
y
y
a graphical presentation of the data In the table, seefollowing p. 8.
taken from Table.bove.
are derived from unrounded figures and do not alwaysthe sum of rounded components shown.
Table *
Value of Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum to the West by Country of Origin
Table 5
Quantity Indexes of Soviet Bloc Exports of Petrolcue to the West by Country of Origin
CO
Country of Origin
Zone of Austria
Soviet Bloc
Data computed from Table 3'
Duringear period covered In this report the Soviet Bloc has exported all the major types of petroleum products to the West. Exceptrude oil has also been exported, most of itin the USSR. Bloc exports of petroleum to the Vest0y type of product, are shovn in Table Ihe percentageof the Bloc exports of petroleum to the West0y type of product, is shown in
* ollow onollows on
The USSRelatively minor part in Soviet Blocpetroleum exportshen ito exports rose toillion tons compared0 tons When analyzed by type of product, these exports showonsistency over the period.asoline was more than three-fourths of the total exports, but1 fuel oil took the lead, comprising more than half of the exports. rude oil replaced fuel oil as the leading product, accounting for overercent of the total, and3 gas oilthe single most Important item, accounting for ki percent of the exports. uel oil rcRained its place as the leadingexport item, making upercent of the total. Petroleumfrom the USSR to the West0y type of product, are shown in*
j j!
Table 6
Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum to the West by Type of Product
Thousand Metric Tons
Type of Product
y
V
y
V
s/
oil
oil
fuel oil
ollowing- 1J
c. Data taken from Table.bove.
Table 7
Percentage Composition of Soviet Bloc Exports of Petroleum to the West, by Type of Product
Table 8
Petroleum Exports from the USSR to the West by Type of*
Thousand Metric Tons
Type of Product
2/
2/
2/
2/
oil
oil
fuel oil
Data taken from Table.bove.
In Rumania, however, the types of petroleum products exported haveattern. Fuel oil became the most Important petroleum export1 and did not relinquish its primary position Except for small shipments1umania hasneither lubricants nor crude oil. Petroleum exports from Rumania to the West0y type of product, are shown in
* ndollow on
Of all the major Soviet Bloc exporters, Austria, In itstransfers, has maintained the most constant export pattern, with fuel Oil the most important product, followed by gas oil, gasoline, lubricants, and kerosine in that order- 04 there have been no exports of crude oil from the SMV organization In the Soviet Zone of Austria to the Austrian economy. Petroleum exports from the Soviet Zone of Austria to the Austrian economy0U, by type of product, are shown In*
SWT fl
Table 9
Petroleum Exports from Rumania to the West by Type of
Thousand Metric Tons
Type of Product
y
y
y
oil
oil
fuel oil
b. Data taken from Table.bove.
Table 10
Petroleum Exports from the Soviet Zone of Austria to the Austrian Economy, by Type ofO-5*
For theears, other Soviet Bloc countries haveonly gasoline and gas oil to the West- Petroleum exports from other Bloc countries to the West0y type of product, are shown in
Table 11
Petroleum Exports from Other Soviet Bloc Countries to the West, by Type of
Thousand Metric Tons
Type of Product
*/
y
2/
2/
y
oil
oil
fuel oil
Data taken from Table.bove.
III. Destination of Soviet Bloc Exports.
, 02 the Soviet Bloc exported petroleum to theWestern countries: Finland, Italy, Sweden, Belgium, Norway, Egypt, the Netherlands, Afghanistan, Austria, West Germany, and the UK. rance, Greece, Turkey, Denmark, Iceland, and Switzerland were added to the list; andlgeria, Argentina, India, Israel, and Yugoslavia were importers of Bloc petroleum.
The major Western markets for petroleum from East Germany and the Soviet Zone of Austria ore, of course. West Germany and theeconomy. Almost all of the petroleum shipped to other Western countries originates in the USSR and Rumania. early
all export* were destined for Finland;sore than one-third of the exports vas destined for Finland; and* only about one-fifth of the exports was destined for Finland, Sweden receiving about the sane percentage. Perhaps the aoetcountries appearing for the first time* as Western la-porters of Soviet petroleum were Argentina and YugoslaviaArgentina because Itigh third among the Importers and Yugoslaviaof its re-emergencerading partner of the Soviet Bloc.
Although total Soviet Bloc petroleum exports* amounted to lessercent* of the petroleum in world trade, this amount had considerable local economic influence. Such Influence wassignificant In countries like Finland, Iceland, and Afghanistan, which were largely dependent on the Bloc for their petroleum supplies.
IV, Petroleum Export Potential
To estimate the petroleum export potential of the Soviet Bloct is necessary to establish the probable magnitude of Bloc production of crude oil, natural gas liquids, end synthetic oils. On
the basis of preliminary Information and extrapolation of general treads, production of these components5 is forecasted at aboutoo tons,illion tons greater than* level of output. It will be noted that* the Bloc exportedillion tons of petroleum to the West (seehich left aboutillion tons for Bloc domestic demands and stock changes. Bythe estimated annual rate of growth of domestic demands in the USSRercent*o* Bloc domestic demands and stock change estimate ofillion5 estimate of Bloc domestic petroleum demands of5 million tono is On the basis of this calculation. It is estimated that the
Bloc may have available for export to the Westillion
tons of petroleumillion tons production5
million tons domestic demand;.
This estimate is consistent with the trend In petroleum exports during the past few years.etroleum exports have been increasing each year. * therearticularly sharp increase
* P.bove.
which coincided with diminished Soviet Bloc exports of agricultural products resulting from inadequate production- In short, petroleum exports increased while agricultural exports declined.
In view of the likelihood that exports of such items ascommodities may continue to decline, the Soviet Bloc may Intensify its efforts to export petroleum Exports over and aboveillion-ton estimate could be made only by restricting the growth of domestic demandit is considered improbable that Bloc production will exceedmillion-ton estimatet may be possible to hold allocations of petroleum to domesticsectors at* levels. If this could be done, the Bloc demands would he aboutillion tons, leaving someillion tons for export to the West.
A< tmrmillion tons and aofillion tons are the most probable limits within which the Soviet Bloc exports of petroleum to the West5 are likely to fall. Of course, basic changes in Bloc trade policies toward the West could affect greatly the quantity of petroleum exported. It is of interest to note,that agreements with Western buyers, as ofa total Bloc export ofillion tons of petroleum for thehich corresponds with what has been estimated as the probable export potential of the Bloc. Although the Bloc has not always fulfilled trade agreements in the past, additional agreements later In the year may well compensate for any failures in fulfilling those signed earlier.
In forecasting5 Soviet Bloc exports to the West, the Bloc petroleum export potential is not the sole determining factor. Western demand for Bloc petroleum must also be considered. The major factors which affect this demand are (l) the quality of Bloc crude oil and the quality and types of petroleum products offered forhe relationship between Bloc prices and those of traditional suppliers;he availability of Western markets of exchange suitable for the purchase of Western petroleum, as opposed to the availability of commodities suitable for bartering to the Bloc for petroleum. The analysis of these factors does not fall within the scope of this report.
The movement of Soviet Bloc petroleum into world markets Inquantities has great significance to the Bloct but It has only local significance to the West. Petroleum exports havealuable means of Implementing the Bloc trade program, which is hampered by the decline In the availability for export of Items such asproducts. Petroleum, one of the few commodities that the Bloc can export in relatively large quantities and can market in the West, has Decome one of the leading Items of export. In terms of world prices, petroleum exports to the Vestarned for the Bloc the equivalent of nearly0 million. 5 the potentialexports of the Bloc are estimated toalue ranging from USillion to0 million. Host of the petroleum has been exportedarter basis to the Vest, and these estimates areonly as indicators of the money value of5 export potential.
Even5 Soviet Bloc exports of petroleum to the Vest should reach the estimated maximum of nearlyillion tons, they wouldaccount for lessercent of total world petroleum trade. Because petroleum demands in the Eastern Hemisphere, which contains most of the petroleum export markets of the Bloc, ore Increasing by aboutillion tons annually, future Bloc exports can be expected to have only minor significance in world petroleum trade.
Conceivably, Soviet Bloc petroleum exports to the Vest couldere subtle and far-reaching significance. By restricting the growth of domestic demand while Increasing production, the Bloc has succeeded0 Id increasing rapidly the quantity of petroleum exports-On abort notice the Bloc could stop exporting petroleum to the Vest, and in the event of hostilities this petroleum could be channeled directly to meet military demands. This, in turn, would reduce the relative magnitude of reductions in allocations to civil demand sectors. Withoutushion the outbreak of war could result in such deep reductions in allocations to civil demand sectors that the economy would be seriously affected. At present, however, Bloc petroleum export policy appears to be based primarily on economic motives and has resulted in no apparent economic disadvantage to the Bloc.
VI. Capabilities, Vulnerabilities, and Intentions.
A. Capabilities.
5 petroleum export potential of the Soviet Bloc is Judged toillion tons and couldaximum ofillion tons. This export potential is limited by the production capabilities of the Bloc and by the extent to which domestic consumption can be curtailed.
B- Vnlnerabllltles.
The volume of Soviet Bloc exports of petroleum to the West is vulnerable to the extent that It is limited by Western demand and by the availability of tankers to carry Bloc petroleum to Western destinations.
C. Intentions.
Although present Soviet Bloc exports of petroleum appear to be based primarily on economic motives, these exports could be easily channeled to meet increased military demands in case of war.
i. Table 1.
Most of the figures for Soviet and Rumanian exports are contained in reports and cables from Ankara vhlch list tanker shipments through the Bosporus. Except0 tons of the Soviet total0 tone of the Rumanian total, vhlch are estimated from fragmentary data, the figures are summations of individual shipment figures contained in these reports. The methodology for the estimates Is ail follows:
1. Soviet Exports.
Afghanistan.
4 trade agreement between the USSR and Afghanistan includes petroleum products, but no specific data have been found on4 exports. It is probable that exports were in the same order of magnitude4 as 3 estimatesons of gasolineons of kerosine contained inre therefore used
Finland.
Most of the shipments of petroleum to Finlandk were made by tanker through the Bosporus. Some lubricants andhowever, went by rail. This type of shipment is established in. Exports to Finland by all Soviet means of(tuttr and rail)4 to4 are listed in. ThiB source reportsarrels of kerosine0 barrels of lubricants were received during the firstonths Converted to tons, these exports amount* bODJ of kerosine7 tons of lubricants. When the amount of kerosine pusslng through the Bosporus from3 through* (bo match receipts in Finland from January throughs subtracted from the total*emainder of0 tons is obtained. Thismonth figure which, projected toonths, amounts to0 tons of kerosine shipped by rail. There were no reported exports of
-
.7 LU.ul
lubricants by tanker through the Bosporus to Finland, and the figure of0 tons obtained froms therefore projected fromoonths- otal0 tons of lubricants results from this calculation and represents Soviet rail shipments of lubricants to Finland
c. To Turkey.
Trade between the USSR and Turkey is coverederies of reports from Ankara containing informationonths4 and reporting shipmentsons of gasoline inons of gasoline in April,ons of kerosine inhese figures were projected tomonth estimate as follows:
Exports
Total reported
Monthly)
onth
Kerosine Exports
Total reported
Monthly)
onth
Metric Tons
roundedetric Tons
rounded)
Recapitulation of* Soviet Exports.
Metric Tons
Destination Gasoline Kerosine Lubricants Total
2. Rumanian Exports.
a. To Austria.
eports the receipt by the Allied Zonesons of fuel oil In Novemberand the scheduling jf an0 tons before the end of the year.
b. To Turkey.
Trade between Rumania and Turkey is coverederies Jf reports from Ankara containing informationonths4 ind reporting shipmentsons of kerosine ins of kerosine in May,ons of kerosine in These Mgures were projected tomonth estimate as follows:
KerosineTons
Total
Monthly)
ODth 2 (rounded
of4 Rumanian Exports.
Tons
stinatlon Fuel Oil Kerosine Total
0
0
3- Other Soviet Bloc Countries.
a. East German Exports.
To Sweden.
Exports of diesel fuel froo East Germany to Swedenonths4 are reported In, in terms of Swedis. Sweden. This figure was converted to tons on the isle of the relationship to3 tonnage. crown
value of diesel fuel Imports from East Germany. The estimate wasas follows:
Diesel Fuel.
January through June
January through December
Diesel Fuelons
January through June(calculated below)
January through December
wedishwedish. per ton3
wedishtlft tons, January through*
expansion toons,one estimated
Switzerland.
Exports to Switzerlandonthsft are reported in- onthly average woe determined and multiplied byoearly estimate0 tons of gasoline0 tons of diesel fuel.
the Netherlands.
Exports to the Netherlandsonthsft are reported in. onthly average was determined andbyoearly estimate0 tons of gasoline0 tons of diesel fuel.
(ft) To West Genr.any.
Exports are estimated to equal the amounts included In the interzonal tradeons of diesel fuel0 tons of gasoline, as given in.
Exports of diesel fuel from Poland to Swedenonths4 are reported In. These exports areIn terms of Swedish. Sweden. The methodology used to arrive at the tonnages Is as follows:
Diesel. Fuel Exportsalue
January through4 January through3
Diesel Fuel Exportsuantity
January through4 January through3
wedish9 Swedish. per ton
wedishons, January through.June
expansion tolS tons,ono estimated for lOjU.
c- Recapitulation of4 Exports from Other
Metric Tons
Destination
Swedeo witzerland The Netherlands West Germany
Total
II. nd U.
The value of Soviet Bloc exports to the West is expressed in terms of world prices. Although some individual shipmentshave been offered at below the world price, it is probable that Bloc petroleum on the whole has been sold on the market at prices generally competitive with Western petroleum. as utilized for value data0 The price used for all products except lubricants was Gulf Coast0 barrels." The price used for lubricants was South. refineries, domestic and/or exporthe prices for the following products were selected:
octane
gravity, water white
,iesel index
Fuel"C" fuel
Lubricatingviscosity atF,olor
The price used for crude oil was the eastern Mediterranean priceravity crude. All prices given in this source are in cents per gallon or dollars per barrel; these were converted to dollars per metric ton on the basis of the following conversion factors:
Gallons per Metric Ton Barrels per Metric Ton
Motor
Gas
Fuel
Crude
* These US prices quoted in the source are equivalent to the prices of petroleum products in world trade.
, used as the basis for* values, also3 prices. The percentage increase or*as calculated for the various products listed. This percentage increase or decrease was then applied to3 price data ino obtain* value figures-
-
caps IN INTELLIGENCE
to the Austrian
economy from the Soviet Zone of Austria and to Vest Goree Hast Germany are readily available. The gaps in information ore on relatively minor exports from the USSH and Rumania which do not go through the Bosporus, and current detail on exports frees other Bloc countries to destinations in the West. There is not sufficient information on. prices of total Bloc petroleum It is believed, however, that they are sufficientlywith Western petroleum prices to warrant valuation on that baa Is.
SOURCE REFERENCES
Evaluations, following the classification entry and designatedave the following significance:
Source of
Doc
- Documentary
Confirmed by other sources
-
reliable
Probably true
-
reliable
Possibly true
-
reliable
Doubtful
-
usually reliable
Probably false
-
reliable
Cannot be Judged
-
be Judged
"Documentary" refers to original documents of foreign governments and organizations; copies or translations of such documentstaff officer; or information extracted from such documentstaff officer, all of which may carry the field evaluation "Documentary."
Evaluations not otherwise designated arc those appearing on the cited document; those designated "RR" are by the author of this report. No "RR" evaluation is given when the author agrees with the evaluation on the cited document.
OIR. Rpt, Russian Oil Export
Marketing Policies in the Prewar Period, p..
Standard Oil Company, Coordination and Economic
Department. Soviet Controlled Oil In World Markets, l6. Eval. RR 3.
Navy, Ankara. 6tatus or" vit of the V. 3cu, irj'o r 'j!.. CIA .
As corrected by:
State, Jerusalem. Teletype from Israeli Home. Eval. RR
Navy, Ankara. ul 5U, Status of Petroleum Shipments out of the Black Sea, info0 C. .
As corrected by:
State, Cairo. 5o Egyptian Importation of frimanlaa Eval. RR .
9rr ,ql of Second
, Athens. IRof c 'sta ta,
.^servationsCIAC.
Eval. RRtate, Jerusalem. Teletype,lt.
Navy, Ankara. 7ummary of Petroleum Shipments out of the Black Sea, infoU, C. .
As corrected by:
Air, Stockholm. olsamnfo
*, S. Eval. RR 6nfoRR 2.
Navy, Ankara. Eval.tate, Istanbul. r: '
ments through the Bosporus..
U/OFF USE. Eval.avy, Ankara. ,. Eval. RRavy, Ankara. . Eval.avy, Ankara. . Eval. RR 2.
S"
Navy, Ankara. . Eval. RRavy, Cairo. nalysis of Petroleuo Products, InfoIA, C. Eval. RR 2-
Navy, Ankara. (The following series of cables was used for
fourth-quarter exportctober
OZ,,,Z,5 Z,IZ,
3 Nov 5ft,ov 5ft,ov 5ft,ov1 Nov 5ft, C.ov 5ft, C.ov 5ft, C.
Eval. RRval. RRval. RRvul. RR 2.
Eval. RR 2.
Eval. RR 2.
Eval. RR 2.
,,OZ,,,W6z,,,,,1,
.
C
.
3.77.
.
*
Eval.
2.
2.
2.
2.
2.
2.
2-
-
2-
2.
2.
2.
2.
2.
2.
B
OZ,lli--?
Jffl
,
7
ec ^
10 UBf O.
Eval.val. RRval. RR 2.
Eval. RRval. RRval. RRval. RR 2.
,.,. (Cargo or one tanker Included In this repoi0 tonsons oa basis of known GST of,. Eval. RRCargo of one tanker included in this report changed0 tons on basis of known GRT of tanker and previous tonnageU3Z,. Eval. RR,ec. DTG..
FOA, Vienna. '-- Eval- 2-
State, Vienna. , l6 Dec 5k, Curtailed Deliveries of Domestic Fuel Oil to the Evldcfiz Burn /Pool/ for Use lr. Western Austria,val. RR 2.
5- Commerce, Bureau of Foreign and Domestic Commerce. Official Statistics of Western Couatrlea, U. Eval. RR 3-
6. CIA. CIA/RRoviet Bloc Trade In Petroleum and Petroleum Products;o and
7- Ibid.
8. Ibid.
Tbld.
Tbia.
CIA. CIA/RR Research Aid, Civil Consumption of Petroleum
Products,ep 5ft (ORR, S/
13- "Rising RussianPetroleum Press Service,
no, U. Eval. RR CIA. CIA/RRbove).
15- CIA. SO,nfoRR 2.
9nfo Novnd earlier, C
Eval. RR 2.
Ibid.
State, Ankara. ,urkish Foreign Trade with
Soviet Bloc, infoIA. Eval. RRtate, Ankara. ,ct 5U, Turkish Foreign Trade with Soviet Bloc, InfoIA- Eval. RR 2.
5*
uaan, -uiO Jul .. f A
Vienna. ,urtailed Deliveries of
Dooestico the Evldenz Buro /Pool/ for Use in Western Austria,ft, CIA. Eval. RR 2.
Ankara. ,urkish Foreign Trade with
Soviet Bloc, info. Eval. RRtate, Ankara. , l6urkish Foreign Trade with Soviet Bloc, info Jun 5ft,. Eval. RR 2.
If
Stockholm. 3 Sep 5ft, Petroleum Products -
Statistics3 and First,FF USE. Eval. RR 2.
CS,nfo May-Aug 5ft, RRGermany. DR Export/importFuels and Chemicals duringft,. Eval. RR 3.
-
23- CIA. CS,nfo 3'
Sit.^ Eval- State, Hamburg. ,h Will Cermany Take? p.
Air, Germany. PS Export/Import of Liquid Fuels and Chemicals duringeb
u"g. ^
lermany TakcT p. k,. Eval. RR 3.
State, EICOG, Bonn. 3est GermanPressure on Standard Oil Co. of New Jersey to Import Petroleum products from East Zone,. Eval. RR 3.
Stockholm. ,ep 5U, Petroleum Products -
Statistics3 and First, CIAU/OFF USE. Eval. RR 2.
27- Piatt's Oil Price Handbook and Oilmanach unn ed,
Hew, U. Eval. KR national Petroleum Hews,, U. Eval. RR Piatt's Oil Price Handbook and Oilmanach ana ed,
Rev. Eval. RR 1.
Original document.
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