TITLE: Developments In Air Targeting
AUTHOR: Robert W. Leavitt
VOLUME: 2 ISSUE: Winter
STUDIES IN
INTELLIGENCE
A collection ol articles on the historical, operational, doctrinal, and theoretical aspects ol intelligence.
All suuemems of faci. opinion or analysis expressed in Studies in Intelligence are those of
the auihors They do not necessarily reflect official positions or views of the Central Intelligence Agency or any oiher US Government entity, past or present. Nothing in the contents should be construed as asserting or implying US Government endorsement of an article's factual statements and interpretations.
DEVELOPMENTS IN AIR TARGETING I. THE MILITARY RESOURCES nlODEL
Robert W. Leavitt
The basic objective for sir targeting Is to presentof the ability of the enemy to take actionsour national security. These measurements mustInay as to guide our action againststrengths. This objective Is usually broken downwhich illustrate clearly Its breadth andExpressed In terms of courses of enemy actionunacceptable to the US, these subobjectlves are, Inorder of importance:
deliver atomic weapons against the US. ourand our allies.
resist the penetration of his airspace by our sir forces.
J. To develop and produce potentially decisive weapons or weapons systems.
o conduct large-scale land and naval operations against our forces and our allies.
o develop and maintain the economic, pollUcal, andstrengths necessary to support prolonged military operations.
With the development of new weapons and weapons systems, however, and the resultant capabilityingle aircraft or missile to deliver the equivalent of millions of tons of TNT on one mission, the analysis and presentation of the strengths
supporting the first three subobjectlves hart assumed, .
Increasing Importance andhis compression of fire-
power In time brings the realisation that the decision in future
wars may be reachedatter of hour* or days at
Old problems have been accentuated and many'nei?: IfJXby theser example, selrxftlnri of
system* to achieve the subobjectlvesto the order shown above Is no longer sufficient Analysis must produce notriority of target* within each subobjectfre and target system, but also an rno^cauon of how many of them
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must be attacked to achieve the objective- Thus analysis byime and space is becoming an essential element in the targeting process.
The complexity of these problems and the speed with which they must be solved have led to the introduction of newmethods and of new machtne computing techniques into tbe targeting analysis process. For example, immediate assessment of the damage and contamination effectiven attack will be necessary in order to determine the destruction required of succeeding attacks. Thisontinuing evaluation of target priorities and of net offensive strengths throughout an air offensiveecision is reached. Two-sided war-gaming offers the best possibility for providing the answers needed for this and similar problems. Because of the time element and the great volume of data required by the new statistical techniques, high-speed electronic computing is essential By this process hypothetical but highly probable military situations in both peace and war can be examined and tested for the types of detailed targeting Information needed by the analyst to guide and evaluate target selections. Only in this way can the total targeting effort truly be said tomeasurements of the enemy's strengths inay as to facilitate action against them
During the last several years It has become mcreaslngly apparent that mathematical "Monte Carlo" andtype modelsew and promising technique for "war-gaming" and foration's economic and military resources for targeting purposes. The rapidhe speed and data handling capacity of modern electronichave now made these models feasible for application to many air target* problems.
Tbe purpose of the mathematical models Is the selection of targets for optimum forestalling of enemy courses of action. This requires the models to answer' the following questions ^
L Present ?
he size and composition of the enernyestablishment (military resources)?
Is tbe size, composition, and productivethe enemy economy (economic
JCOaCT
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port?C' WhSt leVelSmUiUryiI1 purees sup.
fy
of enemy
military resources and economic resources after an all-out nwbllizatlon periodonths?
sources
of damage
jj ^blng attack what would be the yield and location of all exploding weapons?
expIosiom whatbe the size and com-
BSKSJ* economic resources
(including population) ?
D* attack resourceslevel of enemy military action could be maintained?
.Id be the size and composition of enemyand economiconths (or days) after the epeeJfled attack, taking Into account repair. rebulldlnTcon version of other facilities, and new construction?
ating net offensivethe above questions must be asked about our ownwell as about the enemy
The system of mathematical models which would answer these questions is shown schematically in Figure 1.
Tbt air battle, the damage, and the contamination models would answer questionsbove. Discussions of these models are planned in subsequent issuea
The remaining questions concerning the present,"pcetpost attack, and post recuperation capabuitiee of the military and tbe economy are the province of the militarymodel, wblchlnchideseconomXc resources, -
Proceduratty, the 'military resources models determineumber and size of missions, both offensive and defensive of various types, which each country can carry outiven span ofOme. This in/ormstior, is fed to the air battle model which together with the damage and contamination models deter-
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mines the military, economic, and population resource*in each countryeriod of air battle. TheInformation is tn turn fed back to the military resources model which determines the number, type, and size of missions which each country can carry out after the first phase of air battle. The process is then repeated for later phase* of the air battle.
If the models can, as Is believed possible, answer theposed we have an exceedingly powerful tool not only for target selection, but also for estimating the capabilityountry to carry out military action now and in the future under various conditions and assumptions. The testing of alternative target systems in the first and succeeding phases can lead to the choice of the optimum target system for any of several different strategic situations.
When then. Is the military resources model and how Is Itto answer tbe questions put to It?
The military resources model is an input-output model. Thisind of mathematical model about which It has been said. It Is much easier to understand what It Is expected to do than how It does It. What the military resources model is expected to do Is to estimate the capabilitiesilitary establishment and its supporting economy to carry out military action. The essential problem of making this estimate Is that everything must be considered simultaneously.
It Is not enough to know that the capacity of theis so many engines per month. One must alsothere Is enough steel (or electric power, copper,ball bearings, and so on) to produce these engine*tbe same time the tank. gun. shipbuilding, ammunition,other key industries (Including reconstruction In aperiod) are also requiringurthermore, notdirect demand for steel must be considered. Theonly steel but alsopower, transportation, and many other Inputs, the pro-of which also requires some steel In short, tocapabilities of one Industry Ire must account forof all Industriesast range of raw materials.equipmentood* in process,andnput-output model* are afor doing Justn input output model shows for _
Vtjkmy'i
industry (or military activity) the requirements forfrom each.otheryfj&Pk,-.
The military resources model consists of three sub-models or grids; the military grid, the economic grid, and thegrid. The economic grid Is in turn broken down Into geographical regions which are related to each other by the transportation grid. The military resources model can be illustrated schematically.
V&V-
of these grids consists of an Inventory of resourcestable of coefficients In the form of Inputs required peroutput For the economic grid the Inventory of resourcescapacities of all producing Industries. The table ofshows material, labor, and capital Inputs per unit ofoutput; for example, kilowatt hours of electricityof aluminum and tons of aluminum per heavy bomber Tbe military grid shows labor, equipment, andper unit of military activity; for example, tons offlying hour, number of aircraft per wing, tons of(by type) per division month, and so on. Itsresources is the number of military units of each kind and associated equipment The- transportation grid hasoutput units of transportation capacityegional basis: - grid actsestraint on both the economic grid and the .grid as transportation canottleneck or restraint in the economy and within the military structure Itself.
' See Stvdia tn JnUmeence, Volo.Th* Koto ol
Studies in Economic In temobert Lortng Allen, '
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Without knowing the full complexity of the statistical and computational procedures (which is awe-inspiringpthe reader* can now visualize the operation of these grids In answering our Initial questions. The military grid showsiven set of military forces the level of combat actions that could beif the economy provides all the supplies the militaryThe coefficients of the military grid determine theof the given level of combat actions from tbeThe economic and transportation grids deteirrdne how much of these supplies can be forthcoming from the existing inventory of economic resources.
At the present time the economic grid of the Soviet Bloc has been largely completed. It has been constructed in two partsone covering the USSR and European Satellites and the other the Peoples Republic of China For the European Bloc the gridroducing industries or sectors and their materials, components, capital equipment, and labor inputs. Five test runs nave been made andn the basis of the evaluation of these test runs, application of this grid to certain types of live air targets problems is nowundertaken.ubstantial data Improvement research program Is going concurrently
The military grid has been under development for about nine months. It Is expected that test runs of this grid will be made tn the summer
The transportation grid has been under development for about six months, and it Is expected that test runs of this grid will be made hi the summerhe construction of this grid Is being undertaken on two fronts. Tbe first Involves tbe geographic disaggregation of the economic grids in terms of keel regions. Tbe second consists of tbe developmentransportation grid based on these regions. Tocovering the USSR have been designated, outlined, and coded- The transportation net has been divided according to these regions and the. terminals and links within each region coded and catalogued.egions correspond to Soviet oblasts wherever possible tn order to take advantage of the data
' DUtrtbuUon of these rasa has been mad* throuahootaw wptm are will avaOabte-'
on production and transportation published by the Russians.
The effort to gather Soviet source information for the grid
linkedoncerted effort to gather applicable data, both
classified and unclassified, from all other available sources.
The enormous complexity of the computations involved in model analysis makes hand calculation completelyIn the economic grid for the European Soviet Bloc for example, there are per unit of output of each ofectors the commodity Input requirements from each of theectors. This will be further broken downregions. Thus the number of coefficients to beprocessed theoretically could be of the order, orillion1 For any major problem mlllloris of individual arithmetic steps may be involved. Moderncomputers, however, can perform this Job. Theaspect of these computers is the speed with which they can file, sort, recall, and manipulate large masses of data. These partially routine steps In arriving at intelligenceon large areas, such as the Soviet Bloc, have always been time-consuming and cumbersome. For the more difficultproblems, electronic computers together withmodels provide the analystool for considering and holding inreat many more of theof the analysis than formerly was possible. Thisdoes not, by any means, eliminate the human judgment factor. Rather It is believed that it wfll prove toowerful tool In assisting intelligence analysts and planners to make better Judgments, and to be able to make them more rapidly.
Some of the more specific applications of the militarymodel to air targets problems are presented below.
..
The military resources model can be used to assessV-
capabUlty of the economy of the Soviet Bloc to mount andelements of military strengthre-attack arying Bloc objectives, policies, and assumptions.'.Is constrained to work its "available resources- -
within technological relationships. If Itet medium
The Dumber Is actually woafltf slnee many of the coefBdeptiacbaa, lOT-rtar^cculd ra-aenvtw widen cow an
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bomber regiment it must provide planes, bombs, crews, air-bases from which to operate, und so on, in specificon of steel is needed the government must see that steel mill capacity, pig iron, scrap, coal, labor, and so on, areIn the correct amounts. If more steel capacity is needed it must provide the steel, concrete, machinery, and so on, in the right quantities and types toew steel mill These resource restraints and technological relationships are
set out comprehensively and In detail by the military - .
model. The ability of the economy to support the.
tion of desired combinations orf air, land, and sea forces can beypical problem would be aof the maximum "balanced" air, land, and sea forces which could be activatedpecified mobilization period with specified stockpiling and capital expansion policies. Into measuringctivation of combat units, the economic grid can be used to determineariety of Bloc policies and objectives the maximum capability tospecific weapons such as guided missilesombs at specified times.
However, the economic-industrial grid does not take into account any restraints or bottlenecks that might develop within the military structure Itself. Therefore, the outputs of the economic grid are fed into the military grid as Inputs. The military grid is then used to assess the capability of the Soviet Bloc military structure to mount and sustain,re-attack period, elements of military strength fully prepared to engage to combat activities required by given strategies. Tbe ability of the military structure to support desiredor "mixes" of air. land, and sea combat activities can be measured under varying Bloc mobilisation objectives, policies.
and assumptions. In addition to measuring the
combat capabilities that can be sustained, the military model can be used to determine the capability of the military struc-
ture to-put into operation specificuch as
within the available military resources, that is, trained '
personnel, missile sites, logistics, and repair facilities.
The transportation grid would then be used to establishrestraints or bottlenecks which mightthe economy or military structure itself.
secret
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Analysis
Pollowuig thdrl the military resources model can be used to determine the capability of the Bloc economy, military structure, andsystem to re-mount various types of military strength In the post-attack period after air attacks of different scope and intensity. The analysis can be applied to various time periods after the air attack. In very short periods of time only the military, or possibly the military and transportation grids might come into play, as the answers needed would be thewithin the immediate military structure of the Soviet Bloc to re-cycle air attacks and to sustain ground and naval action. These answers would be in terms of availabilities of aircraft, runways, fuel, men, and ammunition to produce flying hours, and the needed inputs to produce ground division months and units of naval action. The longer the time period involved the more industrial and economic resources must be analyzed and brought Into play as supporting militaryIn the analyses of recuperation periods ofew months the economic-industrial grid Is heavily drawn upon. However, the modelhole Is designed to cope withpost-attack military assessment, as well as long range economic and industrial recuperation assessment.
of Air Targets
One of the outstanding advances of theis the possibility of rapidlyreat varietyair targets problems, using various assumptions,air attacks at varying magnitude and scope.air target systems can be developedarietyesult of repeated running of bothproblems and post-attack air target effects(a. and b.he resources such as airfields,sites, storage, supply, repair facilities, and IndustrialInstallations which prove to be irmiHngbottlenecks in pre-attack mobilization problems and inof combat activities in the post-attack periodthe air targets. The same techniques applied Inproblems would, of course, be applied to actual hot -
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Testing
The necessity for balancing the Internal flows within the mstnx of an Input-output model make this type of modelsuitable for testing the Internal consistency of either announced Soviet Bloc plans or of US mteUigence estimates of Soviet Bloc military or economic growth patterns. Forthe internal consistency of either Soviet Bloc plans to mount military strength or US intelligence estimates of Soviet Bloc military growth plans can be tested. Estimatesprojected for various types of air combat strength can be tested one against the other In order to determine whether or not the total projected strength estimate isconsistent and whether or not such total strength can beby the Soviet Bloc military structure. The economic grid can be used to check production estimates Independently arrived at for various military end products to determine whether or not tbe production pattern so established isfeasible. The transportation grid should be of great help in checking estimates of Soviet Bloc transportationand capability.
Indicators
The military resources model can be used to establishof mobilization build-up. By testing the model under various assumed mobUlzatlon conditions certain economic changes as weU as changes within the military structure can be Identified as indicators of partial or complete mobilization. Specific changes in tbe use of resources can be identified asspecific types of mobUlzatlon.
Collection Indicators
In using the military resources model toeries of simulsted air targets problems, certain areas of economic and military activity will be shown to be. of critical significance to the capability of the Soviet Bloc to mount and maintain miU-tary strength. These critical sectors are those on which it Is most Important to obtain accurate, current data forurposes. Thus tbe priority list of air targets intelligenceuirements can be sharpened, and emphasis can be placed on the coUectkm of certain key military and economic data.
for Operational Models
The military resources model la to be used to translate any given over-all military strategy into requirements upon the
im&tir-
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economic-industrial, transportation, and mUltary structure for the creaUon of mmtary.formaUoDs aSd-mllitaiy resource eJfeV*
toeCKSar7 mmUj7 ^tlng activi, ties to both pre- and post-attack situations. Operational models such as the air battle model, currently being tested
TnTvnS. ealistic manner.
The military resources model is designed to provide appropriatehese operational models in the form of units of conv bat capability and to reflect the output of operational mSSs to changing requirements upon the military structure. Thus the military resources model can define the maximum levels of combat activity possible within the limitations of the Blocand economic structure at any specified time.ata Requirements
The validity of problem solutions provided by the military resources model is dependent upon the accuracy of the data 3HT "WlUathematical design of theomponent parts of the modeHl thegrid, the military grid, and the transportation grid -nas its own data requirements which must be initiallyand subsequently kept up to date.
classification of economic ac-
tivity to the Soviet Bloc to the form of three submatrlces or grids; the commodity input grid, the capital input grid, and capital expansion grid. The data requtaemcnta of thegrid or matrix consist of the commodity inputs per unit of production for each ofectors of the matrix. *, sectors cover most of the commodities produced in the Bloc. The data requirements of tbe capital input matrixor the inputs of capital equipment and labor per unit of production of each of these same commodities. The databy the capital expansion matrix consist of theand capital inputs necessary to increase available cap-^^ata described above are ta the form of technological coefficients which reflect the technological rela- -uensnips currently operating as the* econornlc restraints ta an* desired mobilization or recuperation by the Soviet Bloc In order to reflect fully the flexibility of the Soviet Bloc economy in meeting mobilisation or wartime requirements the datamust reflect not only production processes currently ta use but also the alternative prccesse. which couMbe^sed to V
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break bottlenecks, or stoppages resulting from air attack. Thus the economic grid requires the Introduction of all practical alternate Input coefficients in order to establish realisticrestraints. Because production technology changes with the passage of time, these coefficients must be continually scrutinised to Insure that they reflect current technology. In addition, changes are necessitated In the classification ofand capital equipment in the light of experience gained in using the model for various types of problems. Those economic sectors which prove to be the most sensitive toor recuperation demands mayore detailed or disaggregated classification in the model, whereas less vital sectors may be further aggregated.
The runningimulation on the economic model requires, in addition to the technological coefficients, data on theresources available to the Soviet Bloc for the time period being considered. Thus for each ofommodity groups in tbe grid, current data on Bloc capacity. Inventory, andtrade must be assembled
The data requirements of the military grid of the model parallel those of the economic grid, but pertain to military activities rather than economic activities, as previouslythe output of tbe military grid, equivalent to commodity outputs in the economic grid, is In units of frontline activity, for example, flying hourspecific type of bomber. For each such military activity data on inputs of other military activities as well as Inputs of Industrial commodities must be determined Infor each unit of military activity the requirements of military capital aggregated In the form of "resource elements" such as airstrips, naval bases, and repair facilities must be determined together with the Inputstoilitary "resource element" by one unit As In the case of the economic grid, input data for alternative processes ofnit of military activity must be assembled and all coefficients tn the grid must be kept to accord with tbe most modern logistical processes used by tbe Soviet Bloc. In the running of simulation* on tbe military grid, data on total Soviet Bloc capacity. Inventories, and possiblefrom foreign trade for each of the military activities in the grid should be available for tbe time period under
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The introduction of transportation factors into the military-resources model requires an analysis of the Soviet Blocand military commodity flow structure in terms ofregions, thus greatly increasing the data needs. For each region the types and amounts of transportation facilities available must be determined in order to establish the freight-handling capabilities of each region. For example, the analysis of the USSR railroad system, currently underway, requires for each terminal, link, and region estimates of the terminal motive power and freight-car handling capacities, rail-link capacities, and regional car-day requirements. In addition to thesedata requirements, the Soviet Bloc production and consumption pattern must be established by geographic region. This task requires the identification of the types and amounts of economic and military capital facilities, or "resourceavailable in each region. In addition, the Soviet Bloc "bill ofr final demand for military and civilian goods, must be determined by geographic region. The regionalof goods for military, government, and civilian use as well as the regional consumption of construction materials and producer durables must be estimated. Only when all these data are Introduced into the military resources model can the transportation restraints, or "bottlenecks" under specified mobilization and recuperation conditions be identified.
The data problem is formidable, but considerable progress has been made, and new sources of data are being found and exploited. The data requirements for the model-machinedo notarked change from tbeof traditional methods of analysis. However, theanalysis made possible by this technique or method simply makes existing data deficiencies more apparent Moreover, this technique has tbe additional advantage of enabling the analyst to Identify those specific data requirements which are the most crucial in target analysis by subjecting tbe data to various types of sensitivityhe variation ofdata aggregations. The model alsoeans of testing the reliability of coefficients In the light of known output patterns of past years. It is believed that these various testing techniques will contributeharpening of thelist of intelligence collection requirements.
Original document.
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