RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN SOVIET TRADE IN MOTOR VEHICLES AND TRACTORS 1955-58 (SC

Created: 2/27/1959

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Aiitsiorii Pogei 2C

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9

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN SOVIET TRADE IN MOTOR VEHICLES AND

OA HISTORICAL REVIEW PROGRAM RELEASE AS SANITIZED

Office of Research and Reports CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

This document contains classified irJojrhaMon affecting the national security of the United States wlthufithe meaning of the espionage laws, US Code,. The law prohibits lis transmission or the revelation of Its contentsny manner to an unauthorized person, as/veil as Its use in any manner prejudicalhe safety or interest ofthe United States or for the benefit of any foreign government toihe detriment of the United States

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lOP^SBCflET

FOREWORD

Thia report is designed lo provide an assessment ofcr.ce of Soviet foreign :rsce in motor vehicles and traciors. abular form in the report are the relative amounts of Soce :r. these commodities witho-Sov.et Bioc. Western Europe,nderdeveloped countries of the Free World, as wall astaalytea of lbs types of vehicle* traded, the relationship of the vehicles traded to the needs of the Soviet economy, and the proportion of military goods in trie export of motor vehicles from the USSR to the underdeveloped countries. The report Includes an examinationhe geographical distribution of Soviet trade in tractors and motor vehicles, with an analysis of probable courses of developments Data in this reportirstsubject to further refinement-

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CONTENTS

' R

and Conclusions

I. .

A. Motor Vehicles

I. From Countries of the Sino-Soviet Bl Z. From Countries of the Free World

B, Tractors

Exports

A. Motor Vehicles

.

oc

Countries of the Sino-Soviet Bloc

I. To Countries of the Free Worid

, .

Countries . . ,

Tractors

1. To Countries of the Sino-Soviet Bloc .

I. To Countries of the Free World

AgpondtxcB

A. ppendix 3. Statistical Tablesrtjaencix C. Caps in Ir.telligenes Appendix O. Source References

Table i

Scv-et Imports of Motor

Soviet imports of Motor Vehicles, by Tvoe nf . .

J Soviet Imports of Motor Vehicles, by

Soviet Production of Motor

Soviet Imports of Tractors, Selected Years,

- .

6' BJJjJY Country of Origin.

Soviet Production, Imports, and DistributionVehicles,

Production, Imports,istribution of

Tractors,

Exports of Motor Vehicles, Selected

Years.

Exports of Tractors, Selected Years,

Exports of Motor Vehicles and Tractors,

Production end Exports of Automobiles,

Exports of Motor Vehicles, by Type of

Exports of Motor Vehicles, by Country of

Destination,

7 17

20

21

11

Soviet Exports of Motor Vehicles to thc Free

Soviot Exports of Military Motor Vohiclos to

Underdeveloped

Exports of Tractors, by Area of Destina-

tion,

Exports of Tractors, by Country of

.

30

- vi -

RECENT DEVELOPMENTS IN SOVIET TRADE IN MOTOR VEHICLES AND

Summary and Conclusions

Soviet trade in motornd tractors did not increase substantiallyn spite of the recent Soviet program of trade and aid to underdeveloped countries. (For Soviet trade ir. motor vehicles, see the accompanying chart, Although the percentage of motor vehicles exported to the Free World increased fromercent of Soviet exports of motor vehicles5he increase was insufficient to offset rapidly decreasing exports to the countries of thc Sino-Soviet Bloc. Increasedfor production of motor vehicles in Rumania and Communist China and trade difficulties between Poland and the USSR made theser.trte* less dependent or. Soviet shipments of vehicles. Productionutomobilei In Czechoslovakia, East Germany, and Poland more than doubled5nabling these countries to replaceSSK supplying automobiles to the Bloc.

Within tiic Stno--Soviet Bloc, only Chechoslovakia substantially In-

:is imports of Soviet motor vehicles, and in the underdeveloped areas oi tne Free World the major importers of Soviet motor vehiclesEgypt, Afghanistan, Indonesia, and Syria, where importswere military trucks and jeeps. ilitary vehicles Accounted for more than one-half of Soviet exports of motor vehicles to underdeveloped countries of the Free World. In Western Europe,and Norway were the only major importers of Soviet automobiles and trucks, and even the Finnish market showed signs of collapse In

Thc decrease of exports of motor vehicles5 reflects Sov.s; planning for greater domestic allocation of vehicles andthat exports of this commodity may be of marginal interest tors. lthough the USSR exported onlyercent siroduction ofdercent of that ofeiccn;0 passenger automobiles produced were exported ar. indication of the ir.differcnco of Soviet leaders to domestic dis-str'be;!on o; automobiles.

estimates and conclusions in this report represent the best -ifmeat of this Office as,

lthough data8 have been included in this report, such ata arc based on incomplete information available as of the date of ubiication of the report.

The torm motor vehicle as used ir. this report comprises trucks, automobiles, buses, and special vehicles based on truck or bus chassisoes not Include motorcycles, trailers, spare parts, and sets of esmpenen: parts shipped for assombly elsewhere. The term cosi not include garage and maintenance equipment, except mobile

Following p. 2.

TORJ&CKET

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xports of tractors decreased more sharply than exports o: motor vehicles although i: is probable that thi* trend was reversed inecause of increased exports to Communist China and The decrease in exports of tractors to countries ofo-Soviec Blocas not offsetomparable increase into countries of the Free World. 5 percent of the Soviet exports of tractors went to countries ofc. Except for exports to Yugoslavia, the USSR so far has tailed to develop in thc Free World any substantial market for its tractors.

t

Soviet imports of motor vehicles wjbre small! tn number butwhereas imports of tractors were insignificant. All of the tractors and some of the motor vehicles imported were models from the Fret World* purchased for study and experimentation by Soviet engineers. In addition, the USSR imported principally from Czechoslovakia small quantities of special types of motor vehicles, such as station wagons, long-distance buses, refrigerator trucks, heavy dump trucks, andworkshops to supplement inadequacies in domestic production.

Imoorts

Soviet imports of motor vehicles and tractorserein relation to total imports of the USSR as well as in relation to Soviet production of motor vehicles and tractors. mports o: these commodities amounted to less thanercent of Sovietof motor vehicles and tractors and accounted for onlyof the value of all Soviet imports. (For Soviet imports of motor vehicles and tractors, by country of origin, see the accompanyinghc motor vehicle and tractor industries of the USSR are oriented entirely toward domestic self-sufficiency, and tne USSR depends onlyinor degree on outside sources for motor vehicles and tractors. The motor vehicles and tractors imported by the USSR rail, generally speaking, into two categories: urchased :oi llttdy and experiment.on, small quantities of special mo;or vehicles imported to supplement domt?otic production. Only in Ihe&tO two categories did Soviet production fail to meet domestic reouire*

'iotor Vehicles

1 . From Countries of the Stno-Sov:et Bloc.

The increase of Soviet imports of motor vehicles. as shown in* largely was accounted for by the increase of Soviet trade withs shown in Tablezechoslovak motor vehicles imported by the USSR are station wagons

* Following p. 2.

ppendixp.espectively, Appendix B,elow.

TOP S

USSR: VALUE OF TRADE IN MOTOS VEHICLES* AND TRACTOftS

TOP SECRET

TOP SECRET

SR: IMPORTS OF MOTOR VEHICLES* AND TRACTORSOUNTRY OP ORIGIN

Figure

TOP S

And heavy dump trucks, both ol which serve to supplement insufficient Sov*e: production of these types of vehicles. (For Soviet production o: motor vehicles, by type of vehicle, seehe estimated Im-oortationzechoslovak Skoda station wagons7elped to fill one of the major gaps in the Soviet supply c; motor vehicles eo domestic consumers, * Since World War II the USSR nas produced0 station wagons, and the current annual output of the only station wagon in production, thes less. The only other types of utility vohicles produced In the USSR are thehich is made In pickup and closed van models and theeep, made asastenger vehicle oron cargo carrier. Production of theegan in7 orndew thousand were produced by the end3 It is estimated0otor vehicles *ere produced, of whichere exported. Tne Importation zi Skoda station wagons will alleviate to some extent tne shortage of small utility vehicles in the USSR.

Similarly, the importation of Czechoslovak andS. supplements thcproduction of these types of trucks. ,trucks with capacitiesndons wareew contract called for delivery ofeavy dumpthe USSR considered its own production of heavyto be inadequate, because the announcement of theevoted special attention to the problem of production of4/ Since the end of World War II the USSRton dump trucks, not moretrucks,on dump trucks. Continuingin the Soviet press about the quality of heavy diesel truckstnot the USSR does not possess heavy dump trucks inor of adequate quality. Tatra and Skoda trucksugment lie Soviet par- ol heavy.

trucks.

Other imports from the European Satellites are onscale, but, like the imports from Czechoslovakia, theyin Soviet production of motor vehicles. One such waa!*

spot has been production of long-distance, or inter-urban, buses. of ouseseneral has been insufficient in the USSR, asfor the original Sixth Five Year, which called for production of buses to increase0 toercent moreomparedlanned increase ofercent for production of Moreover, most Soviet production of buses is composed of.city buses. 0 buses produced in the USSR,ere of thjlodel, the only Soviettance bus.

Appendix B.elow. Throughout

ticulartalWi8UI-cs on Soviet production ol par--icUar modeis of vehicles are based on source IL

US.

The need (or more long-distance buses has been met by the Importation of Hungarian [karusnd Octroiuses. Hungary is the only European Satellite, with the possibletecho -Slovakia, whicn produces large buses for export. The continuedof the Hungarians to supply tires and spare parts for these bus however, may bringancellation of this trade/ Hungary also is supplying the USSR withump trucks, small-load, short-haul motor vehicles for construction work, anday units or. bus chassis.hird European Satellite, East Gormany. has been supplying mobile repair shops (for automobiles. In addition, the East Germans are mounting specialjequipment on Soviet or East German trucks for the benefit of Soviet forces in East Germany, but data are insufficient foreasonable estimate. 8/

2. From Countries of the Free World.

The imports of motor vehicles from countries of trie Free World have risen only slightly from the small figurenitsn contrast to the increasing Soviet imports from the European Satellites, as shown in As in the trade with the Satellites, most Soviet imports from countries of the Free World are special types of vehicles, which supplement inadequate domestic production. Austria, as part of its reparation payments, shipped refrigerator truckston tractor-trailers forgrain. Although the USSRontinuing need for equipment for transporting grain, imports oi this Austrian model will notin the next few years unless better roads are constructed in the grain-producing areas of the USSR. The Austrian trucks were found to be too heavy for the primitive Soviet rural roads. 9/

A few heavy trucks, oil survey vans, and German-made Ford automobiles have been imported from Westew automobiles and trucks have been purchased from the US and Italy, presumably for study by automotive engineers.

Lastly. Finland has been exporting to theyp* of timber-hauling tractor-truck whichoviet-made CAZ-r jck engine. Once again, this trade supplements the small Soviet production of timber-hauling motor vehicles. Finland suppliedractor-trucks56imes that number7Zf ,

B. Tractors.

Soviet imports of tractoreiffered in several respects from imports of motor vehicles. The volume of imports of tractors, as shown innd* was even smaller than that of vehicles, and there is no evident intention of using imports to supplement domestic production. The imports of tractors58 came from mdustrialited countries of the Free World, principally from the US, the UK. and West Germany. ew Austrian tractors were imported as

* Appendix S, Appendix&,

JPPSECRET

repara;ions. The models imported served as prototypes for study by Sovis: engineers and designers. Most of these tractors were small- or medium-size air.ly garden or orchard types, because heavy crawler tractors were on the embargo list of the Coordinatingon Export Control (COCOM}.

II. Exports.

Although exports of motor vehicles and tractors loomed7 in.the Soviet ira'de ^icture'tfaan did imports of these commodities, as shown inehicles and tractors did notajor item of export. Soviet exports of motor vehicles and tractors, in terms of value, as shown in" accounted forercent of all Soviet exports5 andercent Further-mere, although Soviet exports in general increased in total valuexports of motor vehicles and tractors have remained near the levelo. (For Soviet exports of motor vehicles and tractors, by isi'ca oi destination, sec the accompanying chart,}

Soviet exports of motor vehicles7 wereercent gvtater thiinhereas Soviet domestic production of motorercent greater than The proportion o: procuc-tion of motor vehicles which was assigned for export has decreased, there-ore, fromercent of production5 toercent loser study of the composition of exports of motor vehicles,.as shown ineveals that althoughmall percentage of production of Soviet7 percentnd an insignificant proportion of5 percentereurprisingly large percentage of61 .percent. ofproduction .un ere These figures are surprising only because Soviet production oi automobiles was soeeps.0 jeeps). This relatively highf automobiles made available for export indicates tne lowhich Soviet leaders accorded to domestic distribution of automobiles

The USSR producesodels of automobiles: the ZIS, awhich is produced for the use of high officials of the Communist Party and of the government and is not sold commercially; theassenger limousine; theassengcr sedan replaced by the Volga earlyheAsscnger automobile about the size of the Volkswagen; and theeep which is produced in bothassenger models. Ail of these automobiles are available for export, but because the market abroad for the ZIS and the ZIM is ;Very 6mall, most of the automobiles exported are Moskvlch ajid Pobeda' (now Volga) automobiles andeeps, as shown in

Appendix 3, Appendix B, Following p. Appendix B, T Appendix B,

, below. .

. below. ,

*

o.

p.elow,elow.

5 -

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As for tractorsi although exportseasured in units, were slightly higher thanxports measured in percentage of Soviet productionecrease fromercent of productions shown in* toercent of production

A. -Motor Vehicles.

1. To Countries of the Sino-Soviet Bloc.

A study of thc geographical distribution of Soviet exports of motor vehicleseveals sorrie apparent trends in theof this trade. Exports of motor vehicles to countries of the Slno-Soviet Bloc decreasedercent56 andercent6 The countries of the Blocnits) of Soviet exports of motor vehicless shown inand onlynits)

This considerable decrease in exports to the countries of theBloc is accounted for partly by the growth andoi truck industries in Rumania and Communist China and by charged economic conditions in Poland. The opening of the first Chinese Communist truck plant ath'un in the summer6ecrease in Chinese import requirements. Similarly, the mastering of mass production In the Rumanian truck factory at Orasul Stalin, where trucks were first producedessened theneed for Soviet vehicles,

Polish imports of Soviet trucks have decreasedrobably because of purchases from other countries causedorsening balance of trade with the USSR. Polish production of trucks has decreased gradually4 although Poland hasto import irom the USSR sets of component parts for assembly o: trucks and automobiles. Trucks of theype are assembled at Lublin, and Pobeda automobiles are assembled at Zeran. ln the Sov.et statistical review of foreign trade, Vr.eshrjayajorgovlya Soyuza SSRo god: statisticheskiy obzor {Foreign Trade of the USSR6 Statisticalhese sets of component parts are placedategory separate from exports of complete vehicles, and fromSpare parts. Figures from the'statistical review indicate an increase in the number of such sets of components exported to Poland56 of fromooto for trucks and ofo ets for automobiles. The value of the exports of sets c: components for automobiles, however, decreased5herefore, Poland was producing more types of component parts and importing correspondingly fewer parts from the USSR, although Poland still was dependent or. the USSR6 for certain elements of each vehicle produced at Zeran and Lublin.

In addition to the increased production of trucks in Ru> mama and Communist Chinaecrease in Polish dependence on

the USSR for trucks, production of automobiles in East Germany,

'- Appendixelow. Appendix B, p.elow.

Including Huefcj, wiomsbltai, and bum!

fc-

of tWfl

Czechoslovakia, and Poland more than doubled,OD units50 units Furthermore, plans call for annualbyuropean Satellitesutomobilesecause it was planned for tne motor vehicle Industries of theseto produce goods for both domestic needs and export, the Satellites7 ware replacing the USSR as suppliers of automobiles to the ether countries of the Sino-Soviot Bloc. The Council of Mutual Economic Assistance (CEMA) has sanctioned continued production of virtually all types of vehicles which were in production6 or which were planned

.

Soviet exports of motor vehicles to Poland, Rumania, and Communist China decreased, as shown in* whereas Czechoslovakia became the only country in the Sino-Soviet Bloc togreatly its imports of motor vehicles. The sudden increase in exoorts of automobiles to Czechoslovakia6 is difficult to explain.

onsiderable portion of these vehicles-reeeps and the remainder Pobeda/ but the relative numbers cannot be determined accurately. Czechoslovakof automobiles6 accounted for well over one-half of the Soviet exports of automobiles to the Bloc. The information available on Soviet exports of motor vehicles8 still is too fragmentary to permit comDilacion of an estimate for the Bloc.

, the Chinese Communists have placed an order, presumably for deliveryoroviet trucksf the USSR is able to fill this order, the trend ofexports to countries of the Bloc will be reversed

I. To Countries of the Free World.

a. Western Europe.

inland consistently has been the best

: isiomir of the Soviet motor vehicle industry, importingercentxports of motor vehicles to the whole world5. Finnish purchases, however, decod fromnit sin

to lessn :he first quarter Buyer rcsiaiaace ntAnc was responsible for thc colhipsr of thisernpt1nf to reexport to Greeceat Gnrniauy tomec: unsold Soviet motor vehicles.

Norway is the only other country ol Western Europe which has imported any considerable number of Soviet motor vehicles,ew Soviet automobiles are exported annually to Sweden, Denmark, Austria, Holland, and Belgium. The market for Soviet automobiles in Norway and Finland is maintained on an artificial basis. Norwegian fish and oils and Finnish forestry products are exchanged for Soviet manufactured products according to annual or biannual trade agreements. The bartered Soviet motor vehicles, mostly automobiles, are protected in Finland and Norway by licensing systems whichthe importation and sale of automobiles from the Freepite of serious mechanical defects {inferior piston rings, leaky

TOP SEGREf

carburetors, engine vibration, and windshields of pooroviet automobiles ar* purchased by Finland and Norway because models irom the Fro* World are not easily5 the Western European marketnits) oi Soviet exports of motor vehicles,67nd80s shown ir.*

b. Underdeveloped Countries.

Although the number of Soviet motor vehicles exported to Western Europe decreased slightlyexport* to the Sino-Soviet Bloc decreased greatly, the sale oi Soviet motor vehicles tocountries increased sharply5 ore0 Soviet motor vehicles were exported to theareas, imes more than Part of thi* increaseds accounted for by the resumption of Soviet-Yugoslavhich resulted in exports to Yugoslavia6rucksutomobilesurther increase of tradend

Inarge and Increasing proportion ofvehicles exported to underdeveloped areas consists ofwhich arc not reported in Soviet trade figures. Egypt, Afghanistan, and Yemen weree militarye *hown in" The militaryexported to Indonesia were mostlyeeps for thearmy. Exports of these jeeps continued into the first quarterby whichotalnit* had been

four Middle Eastern countriesgypt, Syria, Yemen, and- purchased military motor vehicles from both Czechoslovakia and ihc USSR, and deliveries from both of these countries continued Most of thc military trucks and jeep* *ent to the Middle East were standard Soviet models which are produced for bothand military use, such as the,rucks and thendeeps,

Aside from these export* of military motor vehicles. Soviet attempts to sell trucks and automobiles in the underdeveloped Areas were not outstandingly successful. 57 the Afghan governmentoviet civilian motorucks. These trucks performed so poorly that thc Afghans became thoroughly disgusted with Soviet motor vehicles and are unlikely to purchase mor* after the present contract* are fulfilled, lr '

Inew countrie* wasubstantialof Soviet sales of motor vehicles. Purchases by Iran of Soviet

motor vehicles increasednits5nitsurma, Greece, and Egypt also bought considerably more vehicles in

: 9o7 than

.below.

Although the volume of sales of nonmilitery Soviet motor vehicles ir. underdeveloped areas generally has failed to reach significant levels, the geographical distribution of Soviet exports has expanded considerablys shown in* Even thoug the USSR had little success in introducing its automobiles and trucks to Latin America, it has opened new markets in Africa and Asia. oviet motor vehicles in small quantities were soldumber of new markets Including Libya, Kuwait, Cambodia, Ceylon, Sudan, and Turkey.

3. Tractors

1. To Countries of the Sino-Soviet Bloc.

The proportion of Soviet exports of tractors shipped to countries of the Sino-Soviet Bloc decreasedercent of Sovie exports of tractors7s shown inercentnits). Exports to Communist China,and North Korea decreased most sharply, although the reasons for thc decrease differ in each instance. In the case of China, the low figure7 reflects the decision of the Chinese7 to retard temporarily thc mechanization of agriculture and to reduce imports of tractors. This policy was reversed8 with the "leap forward" movement, which was accompanied by theof production of tractors in China and renewed emphasis on imports of tractors. Z'. I As for Rumania, the rise in domesticof tractors67 probably explains the decrease of imports from the USSR. Tractors exported to North Korea5 were partehabilitation program, which probably was concluded

Soviet exports of tractors to Bulgaria and. Bulgaria, which has no domestic tractoris dependent for its supply of tractors on imports from the USSR and Czechoslovakia. 5ulgariathe largest single market for Soviet exports of tractors. Trie figures or. this trade, as reported in Statisticheskiaronita Relgariya (oukiiitcnob (Statistical Yearbook of the Peoples: Republic cf Bulgaria, Abridgediffer sub-Itaatially from figures in the Soviet statistical review of foreign trade. According to the Bulgarian publication, tractors imported from the USSR amountednits5hereas the Soviet publication reportsnits5 and Both publications, however, maybe correct,onsiderable part of this trade takes place in December and January, so that some shipments which left the USSR in Decembernd were registered as exports5 arrived in Bulgaria in6 and wore counted as part of the imports6 in tables of Bulgarian

It Is likely that another factor in the decrease of Soviet exports of tractors to thec6 was the increase of

Appendix B,elow. Appendix B,elow.

.

Czechoslovak production of tractorsnits5 to Sixty percent of Czechoslovak production of tractorsxported, much of it to the European and Asiatic To some extent Czechoslovakia has replaced the USSR as supplier to the Satellites.

2. To Countries of the Free World.

Exports of Soviet tractors'to the Free World increased from an insignificantercent of Soviet exports of tractorss shown in*erqent In term's of units, however, the USSR exportedractors to the Free World Whereas sales of tractors to Western Europe remainedery low level, as shown in Tables the increase in Soviet exports of tractors was accounted forise in salesew underdeveloped countries of the Free World. Yugoslavia, India. Egypt. Syria, and Greece are the major customers, but only in Yugoslavia has the USSRignificant market for its tractors. Theincrease in,exports8 to India, Egypt, and Turkey will no: alter the picture materially. Thc USSR has accomplished far less in selling tractors to underdeveloped countries than it has in the saie of motor vehicle*.

ill Future.

It is unlikely that there will be85 anyincrease in.Soviet exports of motor vehicles and tractors, ir. spite of th* probable increase In Soviet trade with underdeveloped countries and the probable increase in Soviet production of motor

n increase of exports of motor vehicles andto th* Free World will be offset largelyecrease of exports to the European Satellites. attern of trade clearly has been discernible in the case of motor vehicles5 and probably will continue The decreasing flow of motor vehicles and tractors to the Satellites will result in part from increased capabilities of the Czechoslovak and the Chinese Communistnd,esser extent, the East German, the Polish, and thend tractor industries. With the emergence of large-scale motor vehicle and tractor industries in Communist China, Soviet exports of these commodities to th* Asiatic Satellite* will decrease further. Similarly, it is estimated that Czechoslovak tractors, trucks, ane automobiles will be exported in greater numbers to th* European Satellites. Plans of CEMA involving the participation of th* USSR are not known.

Soviet exports of motor vehicles to Scandinavia seam likely toconsiderably, whereas the present low rate of increase of Soviet exports of motor vehicles and tractors to thecountries will compensate for the decrease of Soviet exports

" Appendix B,elow.

Appendix B, pp. elow.

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TOP-SECRET

io Scandinavia and to the Sino-Soviet Bloc. Soviet exports, however, will increasenly ii the Soviet leaders pursue in trade underdevelopedore vigorous policy than :hey haveup to the present.

otor vehicles and tractors by the USSR will have little importance. it is likely that thc USSR will continue to import prototypes of motor vehicles and tractors from the Free World for purposes of study and possible adaptation in domestic production, it is likely alao that some of the European Satellites will continue to export to the USSR special types of motor vehicles, such as buses, mobile workshops, and heavy trucks. The number of such vehicles to be imported annually may increase from thc estimated import figure cfnits8 to an annual total of twice that amount. This new figure, however, still would be lessercent of estimated Soviet production of motor vehicles

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APPENDIX A

METHODOLOGY

As an example of the techniques employed in the analysis ofce in motor vehicles and tractors, the process for estimating Soviet exports of motor vehicles to Afghanistan56 is described below.

Because Soviet exports56 included both military and commercial motor vehicles, it is necessary for accurate analysis to attempt to separate probable military exports from civilian exports. The Sovitt statistical review of foreign trade generally has omitted any mention of motor vehicles exported under the terms of the armament agraamantl. An exception to this rule is the listing of jeeps exparted ay the USSR to the Indonesian armySB. This particular trans* tctton has been well publicized by both thc USSR and the Indonesians, wr.ereai Soviet military aid to Afghanistan has not been discussedrtly by either party One of the major tasks in theoviet trade with Afghanistan was the comparison of figurese =izi:st.czl review with data available from all other sources tohether or not military motor vehicles were included inoviet figures. Soviet exports to Afghanistan, as reported In ihc Soviet statistical review of foreignn units, follow;

ear Trucks Automobiles Buses Other Vehicles'*

5 the Afghan Ministry of Government Monopolies purchased fromSSR the following; obeda andoskvich automobile*eeps. totalingutomobiles for civiliane same ministry receivedobeda automobilein1IM limousines,oskvich locomobile P,fl/ Because ih.-sc annual totals are reasonablyosfi':clal figures listed above, it is assume il that the statistical res reporting only nonmilitary snipments to Afghanistan. Thisc.on is borne out by the fact that the Afghans probably importedeeps for thc army It is known that5 and7 the Afghan army imported ateeps through the port of entry at Termez. VU On the basis of information on the dates of shipments of other models of military motor vehicles, it is estimatednits,f these jeeps, were exported from the USSRfghanistan5ore Thus total exports of automobiles from the USSR to Afghanistan are estimatednits5

saline tankers, fire engines, and waicr tankers.

As (or buses, the USSR exporteduses to Kabulnnother shipmentrrived in Kabul. In addition, the Ministry ofin5uses.deliveryare, therefore, in com-

plete accord with the Soviet statistical review of foreign trade onof buses to Afghanistan5

Soviet exports of trucks and "other1 vehicles" are somewhat more difficult to estimate from collateral sources because of duplications and omissions In reporting. source,, In the first half5 the Afghan Ministry of Public Vforke received the following motor vehicle*: umprucks.amp truck*, IS waterIS gasoline tankers,IS mobile workshop*. Thef these models are trucks, and there "other vehicles." According to. before the end5 the following motor vehicles also were imported from the USSR by the Afghan Ministry of Public Works and the Ministry of Government Monopolies: 00 gasoline tankers (typendasoline tankers. It is estimated on the basis of these reports that the civilian branches of the Afghan government received,rucks andpecial vehicles. These totals correspond with the Soviet official In addition, it i* known thai by7 the Afghan armyrucks, III of which6 and It is estimated that the residualrucks, was exported to Afghanistan Thus the total export of trucks and "other vehicles"59 plus

ccording to, the Afghan Ministry ofMonopolies received the following trucks and "other vehicles" from the USSR: ruck*,ruck*,ruck*,ruck5asoline tar.kert,MG fire engine.

s estimated on this basisruck* andpecialwere exported from the USSR to Afghanistan Into these total* of civilianhich correspond rougnly to figures from the Soviet statistical review of foreign trade, the Afghan army In6 receivedrucks and at least1 Therefore, it is estimated that6 the USSRrucks and "other vehicles" to Afghanistan.

*

-

APPENDIX B

STATISTICAL TABLES

The table* in this Appendix are based onnddditional sources. Source reference numbers for references to ths most important of the additional source* are given in th* footnotes of tha tables.

Table I

Soviet Imports of Motor Vehicles Selected

Estimated Value in the Year of Trade

Year

s

Ruble

n; a.

A.

931

.

b/

/

value* are given in current rubles throughout thi* table. ratioa* used for import* of motoris not necessarily an accurate reflection of the dollar value.

Table 2

Soviet Imports of Motor Vehicles, by Type of Vehlcli

8

mi

Trucks, cargo or dump body Automobiles,tation

wagons 3uses

Refrigerator trucks Timber haulers Grain transporters,ton

capacity

1

a/

319

, OC0

30

0

200

/

According to,6 the USSRehicles rherefore, IS imported motor vehicles are not accounted for ir.

table, h. Estimated.

-

Table 3

Soviet import! of Motor Vehicles, by Country of Origin

Units

Country of 6

Sino-Soviet Bloc

Czechoslovakia a/

300

Germany

b/

35

World

c/

and Luxembourg

fj

0

Germany s/

origin

319

500

Table 4

Soviet Production of Motor Vehicles

Units

-rucks Passenger Automobiles Buses Total

17

Table 5

Soviet Imports oi Tractors Selected

Estimatcd Vfalue in the Year of Trade

Rubles)

.

a. Ruble values are given in current rubles throughout this table. ol'.ar ratioas used for Import* of tractors, which is no* necessarily anreflection of the dollar value.

Table 6

Soviet Imports of Tractors, by Country of

Units

Country of Oripir.

a/

Germany b/

c.

-

Table 7

Soviet Production.nd Distribution of Motor Vehicle*

a/

ports

500

The totftll listed in this table as consumption areived by subtracting export* from the sum of production and .

S. Including military exports and gifts and aid.

Tabic 8

Soviet Production.nd Distribution of Tractors a/

Distribution

18

46

mi

otals listed in this table a* consumption are residual*

zy subtracting exports from the sum of productionint.

Table 9

Soviet Exports of Motor Vehicles a/ Selected Years.

Value in the Year ofRubles) W

N.A.

military exports and gifts and aid.

flection

values are given in current rubles throughoutuble-dollar ratioas used for exports of

motor vehicles, whichot necessarily an accurate re of :he dollar value.

Table 10

Soviet Exports of Tractors Selected

Estimated Value in the Year ofRubles)

A. N, A.

-

:"

/

4

N. A.

le values are given in current rubies throughout this uble-dollar ratioas used for exports of tractors, which is not necessarily an accurate rcfledion of theAlus.

-

rciE-seeRrf

'1

Il IIs II SI1

il IPS ii'

!]'

I Nil!

Table) 14

Soviet Export* of Motor Vehicles, by Country nf

Units

1 to iii

Uloc

b/

c/

China d/

Germany tl

uj

0

h/

Korea

Vietnam i/

j/

688

159

325

n.

Footnote* (or Tabicolio* on

T 9

" 91

11 II

1

Table 15

Soviet Exports of Motor Vehicles to the Free World

Units

Europe Underdeveloped countries

Military vehicles Other

Subtotal

Total

i

956

Table 16

Soviet Exports of Military Motor Vehicles to Underdeveloped Countries

Afghanistan

Indonesia Syria

0

20

Units

:!"

25

5

51II

lit'h

Sino-Soviet Bloc

Albania b/ Bulgaria c/ Communist China d/ CzechoslovakiaEast Germany f/ongolia hi North Korea il North Vietnam j/ Poland k/

Total

Free World

Western Eurooe

Austria n/ 3clgium Finland o/ France

w.ly

Sweden iblots I

Underdeveloped counirioi

Afghanistan Argentina q/ 3urma r/ Egypt s7 Greece tl Iceland u/ India v/ Indonesia w/ Iran x/ Lebanon y/ Mexicoudan aa/

i

'

500

734

A.

'

A.

A.

ml

0

A.

i -

-h

:

A.

ootnotes for Tableollow on

-

Table 18

Soviet Exports of Tractors, by Country of Destina?

Continued)

Destination

ree World (Continued)

"Jnde rdcveloped countries (Continued)

bb/ Turkey cc/ Uruguay dd/

V _

Subtotal Total

Grand total

0

A.

A.

li -

p/

Oil

m/

Including military exports and gifts and aid.

20/

ii'

3?/

Estimated. :.

ll:

Minimum estimate.

-

BLANK PAGE

appendix :

GAPS IN INTELLIGENCE

7 . ;r.ioviet statistical revie oreign tradeasis for compiling reasonably good estimates of commodity trade of tbe USSR, Tne statistical review, bow-ever, most be used with caution because of discrepancies and Generally thereesidual from the announced total Soviet shipmentsommodity and thc sum of trade in that commodityci countries. Occasionally the sum of exports to other countries exceeds the figure given as total trade in that commodity. the trade figures given as totalhe statistical reviewompilation of commercial transactions only, excluding gifts, military shipments,d rehabilitation shipments.

Nonmiiitary shipments to countries of the Free World frequently are reported to the UN Statistical Office or are made available to representatives of the US Department of State. The volume of Soviet trade in motor vehicles and tractors to countries of the Sloe is more difficult to assess.

Some information ontrade of the USSR with Bulgaria, Rumania, Poland, and East Germany is included in the recently published economic statistical handbooks; of these countries. Except for the Sovietrevievi oi foreign trade, there is virtually no information available on trade with Mongolia and very little on trade with North Korea and North

*

BLANK PAGE

APPSNDIX D

SOURCE REFERENCES

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of Information

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ot usually reliable

o: reliable

annot be Judged

Information

onfirmed by otherrobably true

- Possibly true

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- Probably false

- Cannot be judged

"Documentary" refers to original documents of foreign govern-menu and organizations, copies or translations of such documentsta;': officer: or information extracted from such documentsiafi officer, all of which may carry the field evaluation "Documentary

Evaluations not otherwise designated are those appearing on the

cited cocument; those designated "RR" are by the author of this report. Ne "RR" evaluation is given when the author agrees with thoited Coeument.

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