QUARTERLY ESTIMATE PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAFT IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC OCTOBER-DECEM

Created: 1/29/1959

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QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF PRODUCTION OF AIRCRAF IN THE SINO-SOVIET BLOC8

Office of Researcheports CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

TBI* document contains classified information affecting the national security Of the United States within tho meaning of tho espionageS Code, lot, and IBS. The lav prohibits Its transmission orvniit rrrany TnannirTfauthori-cC person, as well as Its use In any manner prejudice! lo the safety or Interest of the United Statu or (or theny foreign governmenthe detiiment of the United Stat.-.

CONTENTS

Highlight* :r.

production in Ihe USSR. Fourth Quaritr.

in thc European Satellites. Fourth Quarter,

. (

Production in Communist China. Fourth Quarter,8

Appendix

Source References

Tables

Production of Aircraft in the Smc-Soviet.

by Number.

Production ol Aircraft in the Slno-Soviet

. by

Production of Aircraft in the USSR, by

Number.

Production of Aircraft in the USSR, by

Weight,

Cumulative Production of Selected Aircraft

in the USSR.8

Military Aircraft Acceptances, by 7. US Military Aircraft Acceptances, by

Production of Aircraft in tbe European Satel-

lites and in Communist China, by .

Production o( Aircraft in the European Satel-

lites and in Communist China, by .

13. Estimated Production ol Aircraft in the Slno-Soviet

Bloc, by Number in Selected Plants, as of the Fourth

Quarter8

v

lQT

QUARTERLY ESTIMATE OF PRODUCTION OF AIKCKA:-'" ' IN THE BLOC CCT03ER-DECEMBER

1. Hlghllghta

Activityn the Aircraft industry of thaoc kae bean highlighted by tha probable pheee-out of production of known heavy Jet bomber* and known medium Jet bombara in the USSR. On the baala of information currently available, itla estimated that production of the Blaoneavy bomber la being phased out at Moscow/Fill Airframe Plant No. The current trend of evidence regarding production of the Badgeredium Jet bomber atirframe PI Ant No,nd at Kuybysbev Airframe Plant Nd.uggests that both of these plants are terminating their program for production of Badger aircraft. Although at least one new type of large, heavy bomber, the Bounder, la known to have been developed in the USSR, there la no firm evidence to suggest just what type of aircraft may re* place the Blaon or Badger in aeries production at Moscow/Fill Airframe Plant No.azan' Airframe Plant No.nd Kuybyahav Airframe Plant No. 1.

The most significant event of the year probably concernsin Augustew type of large, heavy bomber, theMoacow/FUi Airframe PlantThere is no evidencethat the aircraft ia In series production. Another probably newlarge aircraft, as yet unidentified,beenit

the Identity otaircratt rangereoily Improved Bison to the Bounder or to an entirely different and new type of aircraft.

* The estimates and conclusions in this publication represent the best Judgment cf this Office aa

Estimated production of aircraft ln the Slno-Soviet Bloc59 la given by number In Table I,elow, and byweight in Tableelow. Eetimated production of aircraft in the USSR58 la given by number in Table J, L_elow, and by airframe weight in Tableelow. For comparative purposes, US military acceptance figures58 are given by number In Tableelow, and by airframe weight In Tableelow. For additional compariaon,of combat aircraft In the USSR5G ia compared with that la the US by number ln Figurenside bach cover, and by . airframe weight in Figurenside back cover.

Tot descriptions and Illustrations of all Soviet aircraft mentioned in thla report, see the Charaderlatlcs and Performance Handbook, USSR Aircraft issued In8 by the Assistant Chief ol Staff. Intelligence and tha Office of Naval Intelligence, US Navy. SECRET, Supplementary sheets have been added to thla handbook. Eetimated cumulative production of aelected Soviet aircraft.the Badger,8 ia given ln Tableelow. Eatlmatea of monthly, quarterly, and cumulative production at aelected plante in the Sino-Sovlet Bloc are given in- 2ft below. I For serially numbered source references, aee the Appendix.

Tho molt important development8 in tho llald ofof transport aircraft has involvad the speed with which theour-engine turboprop transport has been produced in the USSR and has entered scheduled airline service. Series production of this aircraft is estimate: to have atarted at Moscow Airframe Plant No.uring the third quarternd oovaral Coot aire raft have appeared on scheduled airline rotces during the fourth quarter

Production of the Catn-lOA) four-engine- turboprop civil transport and ita military version, thaow is believed wall under way ln the USSR after eeveral dtlaya. Recant informationthat ther An-lOAmay have begun scheduled airlinelaS, and it is probable that thaas been in use by the military services eir.ee late autumn

Although it was not expected that the USSR would produce many of the Camel, twin-engine Jet transporie, production has continued at leaetoviet airframe plant8lant*. It now seems probable that productionater model, the. will continue.

Very little new information concerning production of fighterin the Sino-Soviet Bloc became available Perhaps the most noteworthy event in the field of production of fighter aircraft occurred ia* In the USSR when three Fishbed aircraft were photographed on the plant airfield at Tbilisi Airframe Plant No.equielll-r. of thle photograph confirmed previous estimates of the type ofoyan-deeigned fighter aircraft with which the Tbiliei plant was concerned. It also is of interest that eeriee production ofet fighter in CiechoelovaWa8 has failed to materialise.

Significant events in the field of production of miscellaneous alr-cra't in the Sino-Soviet Bloc include tho Identification of Rostov Airframe Plant No.n the USSRacility producing Marerelicopters. ew turbine-powered helicopter, the Hookisplayed in the USSRut there is as yet no evidence of aeries production.

Except for the USSR, Communist China, of all the countries of the Sino-Soviet Bloc, made the greatest progress in production of aircraft With virtually no aircraft industryhina already isubstantial portion of Bloc aircraft outside the

.USSR.

Z. n the USSR, Fourth Quarter.. Bombers.

Onlybservations of Moscow/Fill Airframe Plant No.uring iLv fourth quarter8 have been reported. On the basis ol these observations, itstimatedpossibly onlyleonwere produced in October, none In November,possiblyn December. Therefore, cumulative production of the Bison at

Moscow/Flli Airframe Plant No.a9 is estimated toircraft. Thla estimate la believed to ba reliable within plue orircraft. Tha plant still la believed to be phaeing out production of the Biaon. Production rate*6 continue to be low and erratic.

ew large Jet bomber, wae obeefved andlimes at Moscow/Till Airframe Plant No. uringugust through IS Berwreneptemberhe Bounder aincsaft disappeared from view. owever, the fuselageounder aircraft was sightedbargee being towed along the Moscow River. V The next day aestimated toeet in lengthDn barges atthe Siteight testing Institute) oi tno Soviet Air Force.

Tbe estimate of production of the Beareavy: Kuybyahev Airframe Plant No. IB remains as Stated In the last publication of this series. During the fourth quarter8 there became available no Information which would change this estimate In any way.

Production of the Badger medium Jet bomber at Kazan' Airframe Plant No.ow Is estimated to have ceased by the endnd production at Kuybyahev Airframe Plantease some time during the firs* half Roanalyei*

Miaate of proouctlon much earlier than previously estimated. It now is believedinimumadger aircraft were predated at this facilityndicating that the pea* rate otircraft per month was attained earlyore Badger aircraft now are estimated to have been produced at Kazan' Airframe Plant No.han had been estimated previously.

' Analysis of information received after publication of the las:In this series of publications Indicatesison heavy Jet bombers were produced at Moscow/Fill Airframe Plant No.uring the second quarter8 instead ofreviously estimated. Tub Blsoa aircraft are believed to have been produced in July, one in August, and none in September.

his estimatelight change from the estimatesduring the third quarter It should be noted, however, that it la very difficult on the basis of available information to deter -mine the exact date when production ceases. It la possible, therefore, that these estimates may be revised again in the future.

During the fourth quarter8 there became available noinfo-mation which wouldhase-out of Badgerat Kim' Airframe Plant The estimated phase-out still is based largely od the reduced number of possible delivery Cigala and test flights ofircraft from Kazan'. Only one possibleircraft ha- been notedelivery flight from Kazan' since September

195

Ala !

MM Sight* of probableAircraft have beer, noted from oeation eince

. The Khar'kor plant now t.

known to have producedircraft. end to havaroduction rat*amel aircraftIn Information .till la not available on thaof tha other known production alto of tha Camel, Omsk Ai.No.. It la believed, however, that the(

Production of -he Cat turboprop transport appearsell under way at Voroneah

5/Cat aircraft wore eighted on the aiificid of the Voronsah plant/ Production of the An-U

a military version of the Cm, at Irkutsk Airframe Plant No.sto be proceeding on schedule.

. , u-IUD) is not yet clear. Until further information become, available, it is estimatedu-IMD models are being constructed tf KuybyshevPlant Itossible thpt these actually represent modi-fied Bear aircraft rather than new Tu-lldD aircraft.

The previous estimate of orrtdurtin* (A- ae revised

. ieved approximatelyolt aircraft erere proceed at Kiev Airframe Planty6nd thatstopped by the end of the third quarter ofColt is be.ieved to have been replaced in series production at this plant by the new Anioncv-de signed Qcdiston transport.

c flghto re.

Ute fourth quartor8 an extremely limited amount

of intelligence Information concerning Soviet production of jeteraft wa. roeelved. esult, the current statu, of production at plants Involved with Jet fightera designed by Mikoyan Is Ul defined.

Commensurate with the presumed continuing low rate, ofof new Mikoyanonger period for the phase.out of older types of fighter, has been estimated. This estimate in turn haseduction in the number of fighter aircraft estimated to have been produced

mib ^that

sfvoWed with-!

(or thap-iat 2yeara. Although aaaumeo. ins*odificationariant of, the new designation'hae not been equated firmly with any known fighter.

The onlyTbilisi Airframe Plaat No. 31

during the fourth quarter8 produced.'Utile information on'produe-tlve activity In the plant. The observation-revealedprfiaasCenidentified fighter aircraft, poaalbly Farmera.nidentified aircraft tails protrudingmall hangdV.'lQ/ Although the observer could supply no further details oa the'sire' or shape of the tails, ha did rtoi believe them to be tails of eitherr Farmer aircraft.

a - .-

haaull eat of drawlnge'for Plant No.or record purpoaee Hon of.oralant No.ill aetla the. Be cause there conaidered to be'extremely tenuous,

Aatudy .

indlcatae that thethe Fitter, laad upw

.As:

Sukhoy Plant No duct ion* ra

,roductiOn for Novoaibiraklant Analysis

ircraft permonth

_laircraft, probably tho

The e

designed

TOP. SEGf&Z-

Nfts v

during th* fcftfrth quarter Production of the Farmer itAirframe plantrobably will have ceased by the end Tbe Farmer la believed to have been producedigh rate during ths latter partnd the-pro gram for the phase-out of this aircraft should takeear.

d. Othera.

The estimate of production of tbe Creekh-lZ) pistonat Leningrad Airframe Plant No as been revised this

Quarter onMe Is

It had been expected that productionew model of the Creek was introduced Into Analysis that the Creek probably waa being produced at the.rateaircraft per working day during the first quarterecent information Is sot available. I; is assumed thatcontinuedonstant rate throughout the year.

During the fourth quartorostov Airframe Plantas identifiedroducer of thelightly larger four-bladed verelon of the Harenalysis

. indicatesinimum of

four of these helicopters had been produced at Planty the end On two occasions the light hellcoptora have been observed within the area of the Rostov plant. Five helicopters Identified as Hare were seen Innd eight were noted on the plant airfield in li/

Continued sightings of the Horseelicopter In Cast Germany indicate that this helicopter waa produced in slightly larger quantities than was prsviously estimated. The status of production of the large Yakovlev-deslgnad helicopter remains obscure.

In the European Satellites. Fourth Quarter,

of the Prague/Vodochody Airframe Plant induring the fourth quarter8 indicated that production of the Farmer Jet fighter almost certainly stoppedery short experimental seriee. Production of the Midgett this plant continues.

eappraisal of production of the Mooseiston-engine trainer in Csechoalovakla is now under way. Itis concluded that production of this aircraft was instituted3 and had ceased by The possibility that cumulative production of this aircraft as presented In the current estimate ahou be reduced by as much anercent also should be noted. For tha present, however, no change has been made.

'Estimated production of aircraft in the European Satellitee and in Commir China53 Is given by number la Tableelow, and by airframe weight in Tablee

ECRET

estimate of production of tho Crateiston transport a: the Latnany-Calcovtee complex In Chechoslovakia has been Increased this quarter

Introductionew model of the, into production at this plant apparently has had little effect on the rate of productionircraft per month.

the buildup

of production lor the Crate in during lyao7 was somewhat slower Chan previously estimated. Produetion3 ha* been rather irregular but has averaged 3aircralt per month.

In Poland, production of the Fretco continues, although possiblyomewhat lower rale than currently estimated. Occasionalthat the Fresco was to be replaced in serlce productionelec by the Farmer have not been verified. Estimated producticr. of theelicopter, Polish version of the Soviet Hare, atwtdni* has been revised this quarter

econd type ol hen-topler, theppeared in Polish military and Civil service. Although these aircraft probably were imported from the USSR, future Folish production of the Hound is quite possible.

Sightings and press releases indicate that the sporadic production of aircraft at Lovech, Bulgaria, has slopped entirely and ia being re. placed by production of motorcycles and bicycles. Production of light aircraft In Rumania andontinuing, bi:ow and Sporadic rate.

*- Production in Communist China. Fovrih Quarter,

One of tha moat impressive achievements in the field of production cf aircraft8 within the Sino-Sovlet Bloc is the progress mad* by Communist China. Although the Chinese Communists were producing no aircraft domestically as recently aeonths ago. thay now arein series production of the Freacoet fighter and the Col:tatonhere are indications that the Chinese will undertake seriee production of the Houndelicopter in

Although no recent information Is available on Shenyang Airframe Plant No., it is believed that the plan: is continuing production of Fresco aircrafttarted in Increasing numbere of the .JeVfi.htere designed by Mlkoyan have brer dbeerved ir operationalunite Although the Chineee designate the jet flgher." it la belleyed that the aircraft Is Identical to the Fresco, produced ay the USSR.

Production of tha Colt piston transport at Nanchaag Plants continuingelatively ateady rate. The Chinese CommuVists have Indicated that the biplanes will be producedpercent higher than originally Twelve of the transports ware delivered from Nanchang In/ Of theseere delivered to the Chinese Airo the Civil Xlr"

Administration,to various provincial go.var(intents. It la est:-ma tadth^t? An-2'e vio.rft completed In OctoberP^rj No.ncouniered-Bomen'il'oho plantl ealciuvr.uwn'a'hbr^ge,iot Seriously have' Impairod^roaudnc^'Tor any great length oJ rime.

Airframe Plantas concerned*he>r

of Hound^

SubsegunatPlant No,theocrlco prOducjior. ofeelgned'h^lhcipior.' Jnarnunidtalant In Harbin.had pre ducedhina.'* first multipurpose helicopter and that trial flights on lb8 proved the helicopter to beith the prototype completed and tested Int isthat China will enter aeries production of the helicopter in

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Table 10

Eattriiatftd production ot Aircraft in the Sino-Soviet nine, by Numhcr inaTt(-aa of thc Fourth Quarter8 (Continued)

Plant

Quarterly Cunulatlve Production Pro<1uctioa Production

fighters

Paraerlahpot

Ho. 31

Kcatsonol'aa: Ho.

Horosiblrsfc So.

RoroBibirBH Bo.

Scrntov Ko.

e

j iductlcn la believed to hav tnrted In

Series production is believed to have started in

Hiaalng out.

SeMe* production le believed to bave Started in

ft)rlea production is believed to have started In

Jet

Canal

and Tu-lOiA) Canal (Tu-lOU

end Ttt-lOfcA)

Kfcar'ltovaae

Cat

(An-lP) Civil CutS) Cleat OM-Ufc and

Irfcutek So.oronezh No. (f* Ktscov Ko. 30

Kuybynft.iv Sn. 10

prototypes. u-llliD ulr-eraft ponalbly ore nodlfiedircraft ratherv [rtO-rtlon.

*ov scene

i

APPENDIX

SOURCE REFERENCES

allowing :hc claseificatlen entry and designated 'vi! the following significance-:

Source of Information

Doc. onfirmed by Olher eourcti

ompletely- Probably true

eually- Possibly true

airly- Doubtful

DNot ueually- Probably (alee

ot- Cannot be Judged

annoi be Judged

' Documentary" refero to original documents of foreignand organizational copies or translations of suchtaff officer; or information extracted from such documentstaff officer, all of which may carry thealuation 'Dot--mer.tary. "

Evaluations .tot Otherwijs designated are those appearing ta the cited document; those dcalgnated "RR' are byhcrthie report. No "RR" evaluation ia given when the author agrees with the evaluation or. the cited document.

Original document.

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