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- / sjoa CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGEHCt
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anuary
MEMORANDUM FOR: Mr. Allan Evans, State
Colonel D. R. Drown, USA (ACSlJ Captain H. W. HcElwain,) Colonel R. K. Lawson, USAF (AFCINolonel K. T. Gould, USAhe Joint Staff) Colonel R. P. Halloran, USAF, Director of Operational Services, NSA Mr. Randolph V. Zander, Defense (OSO)
s FRCSPECTS FOR THE ARAO WORLD
Thc attached draft terms of reference are forwarded for review.
It is requested that your representatives meet with usebruary indministration building to discuss these terms.
WXLLARD C. MATTHIAS
Acting Deputy Assistant Director
National Estimates
DISTRIBUTION
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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
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SUBJECT: TERMS CF REFERENCE: : PROSPECTS FOR THE ARAB WORLD
THE PROBLEM
To esticate the General trend of events in the Arab World ovorxt few years.
SCOPE
Weaper of DCderato length, with ecphaslo on area-wide patterns, problems, and prospects, and how these havo changed since, "Main Currents in the Arabated Tbe following outline covers thc oojor topics we think should be discussed.
1. The Role of the Radical Natlor-olists
a. Extent to which they will retain tbe inltiotive in thc Arab World.
as leader and symbol of tbe DOvc=er.t. problens, objections, and prospects havethe lost two yeors In the light of Arabr.tn, events in Africa, etc.
of significant reverses fcr theoovenentplit in the VAR).
of radical nationalist ond Pan-Arabtho retaining conservative governoents.
2. The Traditionalist Goverocents
prospects in light of the pressuresthen by their cva nationalists and bystates.
likely decestic and area policies in lightpressures.
3- Arab Unity Chances of practical progress in light of country nationalises and conflicting Interests of leaders. Likely trends in the Cairo-Baghdad rivalry. Its effects on other states.
U. The Ecoiicoic Outlook
a. Moveoent toward statisn In the econonic field.
o. General ecooooic prospectsbright spots, probleosopulation inhe oil industry (borrow frCD NIEikely role cf foreign aid fron the West end the Bloc.
5- ModernizationManner ond degree to which the Arch
states are noving out of traditional patterns ir. social life and the effect Df this on their econonic and political prospects. Hole of the nilitary, the intelligentsia, other icportant groups.
6. Arab Relations with the Outside World
a. The Arab standpoint
The neutralisD of the nationalists- Extent to which it is likely to recoir. truly neutral. The UAR as leader of Arab neutralise.
Pro-West inclinations of the conservatives.
Tbe peculiar role of Iraq.
b- External Influences
Policies and role of the Sine-Soviet Bicethe Arab World.
The West.
The Neutralists.
The Arab-Israeli QuestionThe arns race; effects of Israeli nuclear capabilityeapon in the cold wor with the Arabs. The question of the Palestine refugees. The question of Soviet countersupport for the Arabs.
Annex
Assesscent of the cilitary strength ond effectiveness of the najor Arab states and Israel.
Original document.
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