Special Analysis
EI.SALVADOR: Theoliti.ul StrateRy
FMLN leaden, anxious lo do fell in electionsre prolonging demobilization to extract more concessions from tke government. Full demobilization is unlikely by thectober deadline and may stretch into nest year. F^
The Consiiluiion requires; the FMLNisarm andbefore ii can participate in elections, one of its keysigning the peace accord. Rebel leaders, however, arem an effortain concessions from the governmentstrengthen the loyally of their troops and gamer widerThe revised timetable agreed to last month affirmsgoal of total FMLN demobilization by thccndofnexithe governmenl will have difficulty fulfilling it* promisesland redistribution and police reform, increasingihat the rebels will continue stalling
A Strategy ot Delay and Evasion
By demanding additional concessions. FMLN leadersio control the tempo of ihc peace process, to show ihatan equal standing wiih ihe government, io ensure benefitsrank and file, and ioilitary capability asgovernment backsliding and rightwing violence.believe iheir lough siancc will shore up supponwho are concerned about government compliancethai the FMLN leadership serves their interests.!
FMLN leaders have publicly justified iheir actions by pointing lo the government's failure to provide adequate benefits foro make nmcly progress on police reform and land redisiribution. and to protect Icflisi activists. The rebels* apparem strategy is to sustain criticism of ihc governmenl andhift to new issues once progress is achieved in any one area, Although some of their complaints
arc valid. UN mediators consider others to lack
,cadcr> Probably calculate that the
governmcniana ine UN arc wilting to tolerate delays and iinnn
strict compliance.
continued
looVjnjj Toward Ihe Elections
To participate in general elections inMLN leaders must prove to the UN thai they haw demobilized their armed forces, bat ditpuiet over this are almost inevitable, particularly if rogue guerrilla elements refute to mrrender their arrnt. Moreover, ihe FMLN almost certainly will continue tolandestine force in an erTon lo guarantee its security. The government mtght cue such violation* at juiuncalion for trying io deny lhe FMLN the rithi to participate in tbe elections, but intense international pretturc probably would forte the geivcrripirnt to hack down for the take of national reconciliation.!
Original document.
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