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MEMORANDUM: Bosnia and Hercegovina: the Humanitarian Aid
Gap this Winter
UNHCR planning is based upon an5 million relief recipients in Bosnia and Hercegovina during the winterto April.
Numbers and locations are sketchy, but we estimate thatercent of the people in need are in seven cities: Sarajevo, Banja Luca, Bihac, Gorazde, Mostar, Tuzla, and Zenica.
UNHCR estimates that Bosnia and Hercegovina will need:
etric tons (mt) of food this winter.
New or repaired shelterseople. Survival aidslankets) eople. Plastic sheeting (to cover damaged windows/walls) throughout Bosnia and Hercegovina, partments in Sarajevo.
No estimates for medical needs are available. The tonnage would be modest, however, compared to food and shelter needs.
Best Case (security isroblem, winter weather is not atypically harsh);
Deliveries may approximate, but probably not meet, the estimated daily requirement ofmt of food. Shelter and medical needs will not be met. (On the best day this summer, food deliveries totalled less than half that amount.)
The UNHCR's goal of an enlarged truck fleet (capacitymt) will not meet expected needs. (Assuming such factorsf^%urn-arounds on truck convoys, in-country distribution needs, snow-clogged roads, etc).
Trade-offs will be necessaryetween food and medical supplies).
Worst Case (security does not improve, weather is harsh);
The average daily food deliveries would probably not be moreew hundred mt--only enoughew tens of thousands of people.
Death rates will rise from malnutrition and exposure.
EifTtiMj Horona
Original document.
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