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INCOMING WffilE HOUSE
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FROM: CIA
T0 : WHITEIDA RELEASE
JULY iq6*2
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PRSOHITY
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ATTN: MR. KAYSEN
THE FOLLOWING MESSAGE FROM CIA STATION IN SAIGON RECEIVEDASS IN RESPONSE TO THE REQUEST MADE ON kMR. KAYSEN CIA CONCERNING THE TRUMBULL STORY IN
ULY NEW YORK TIMES:
"1. THE CIA STATION, SAIGON, HAS MADE EXTENSIVE CHECK IN EFFORT DISCOVER SOURCES OF FIGURES AND INSPIRATION FOR SPECULATIONS IN TRUMBULL ARTICLE, BUT ALL WE HAVE ABLE FIND OUT WAS THAT FIGUREECENT INFILTRATORS ORIGINALLY FILED BY UPI CORRESPONDENT ON BASIS BRIEFINGS HE RECEIVED FROM UNIDENTIFIED SOURCES IN KONTUM DURING RECENT VISIT. TRUMBULL PRESUMABLY PICKED UP FIGURE FROM UPI REPORT, TIED IT IN WITH HIS CMN PRECONCEPTIONS TO FASHION WHAT SEEMS TOIGHLY EXAGGERATED AND SPECULATIVE REPORT.
"2. THERE HAS BEEN LITTLE INDICATION FROM INFO AVAILABLE TO US HERE THAT TO DATE THERE HAS ACTUALLY BEEN ANY MASS TRANSFER OF PAVN
JEW
ELEMENTS FROM LAOS TO SOUTb*^VI ETNAM. ALTHOUGH THIS ALWAYS POSSIBILITY
AND IS OF COURSE SOURCE SERIOUS CONCERN GVN, SHOULO BE RE-VEMBERED THAT
BULK OF PAVN ELEMENTS ACCEPTED AS BEING CURRENTLY DEPLOYED IN LAOS ARE
8ELIEVED BE LOCATED EITHER ALONGR IN NORTHERN LAOS.
THEIR REDEPLOYMENT INTO SOUTH VIETNAM WOULD SEEM POSE AT LEAST AS MANY
DIFFICULTIES AS INFILTRATION FRESH ELEMENTS DIRECTLY FROM NORTH VIETNAM
VIA LAOS. MOREOVER MOST THESE UNITS PROBABLY COMPOSED NORTHERNERS,
WHO WHILE PERHAPS SUITABLE FOR OPERATIONS IN NORTHERN LAOS WOULD BE
FAR LESS SUITABLE FOR SOUTH VIETNAM THAN LARGE POOL REGROUPED SOUTHERNERS
MANY OF WHOM INCORPORATEDTHTH DIVISIONS.
"3, RE TRUMBULL'S SPECULATION ON "REPORTED PLAN" FOR "LIBERATEDHIS OF COURSE SOMETHING WHICH MAY EVENTUALLY MATERIALIZE; HOWEVER, HANOI'S CURRENT PROPAGANDA STANCE CONTAINS NO HINT OF EARLY ESTABLISHMENT RIVAL GOVERNMENT IN SOUTH NOR IS THERE ANY SUGGESTION OF THIS IN OTHER REPORTING ON SUBJECT. STATION INCLINED THINK EARLY MOVE THIS DIRECTION WOULD BE ILL-TIMED FROM COMMIT STANDPOINT, COMING AS IT WOULD ON HEELS OF ICC DECISION ON SUBVERSION, ESTABLISHMENT OF LAOS COALITION AND IMPENDING lU-NATION GENEVA AGREEMENT ON LAOS. QUESTION SETTING UP RIVAL GOVT MAY WELL HAVE BEEN SUBJECT CONVERSATION BETWEEN HO CHI MINH AND RUSSIANS AT MOSCOW, BUT WE TEND TO DOUBT RUSSIANS WOULD BE VERY KEEN ON ITS EARLY ESTABLISHMENT SINCE IT WOULD VIRTUALLY FORCE THEM PROVIDE OPEN AID TO
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VC, THUS LEADING TO ESCALATION IN TERMS OF CONFLICT HERE WHICH WE WOULD NOT THINK SOVIETS AT THIS JUNCTURE PREPARED ACCEPT.
RE ESTIMATE RECENT INFILTRATIONS WHICH TRUMBULL ATTRIBUTED TO GVN, THE CIA STATION IS UNABLE ASCERTAIN WHAT ELEMENT GVN GAVE HIM FIGURE, BUT TOTAL CONSIDERABLY IN EXCESS WHAT MACV CARRYING. OF POSSIBLE INTEREST IS FOLLOWING MACV ESTIMATE MONTHLY FLOW INFILTRATIONS FROM1 UNTIL PRESENT: FROM JUNE TOO PER MONTH; FROM JAN TOER MONTH; MAY ANDOOO. ESTIMATE BASED ON ANALYSIS CERTAIN CIA REPORTS (MAINLY FROMEPRESENTATIVES IN LIAISON AT SAVANNAKHET WITHN-THE-SPOT CONVERSATIONS IN PLEIKU WITH II CORPS INTELLIGENCE OFFICERS AND THE MAAG ADVISOR THERE, AND ESTIMATES GVN JOINT GENERAL. ALTHOUGHEADILY AGREES HARD INFO ON SUBJECT DIFFICULT TO OBTAIN, ITS ESTIMATE APPARENTLY MADE ONLY AFTER CONSIDERABLE STUDY OF PROBLEM AND IS PROBABLY FAR CLOSER TO TRUTH THAN CONSIDERABLY HIGHER GVNIA HEADQUARTERS COMMENT:
WE BELIEVE THE FIGURES USED BY THE NEW YORK TIMES ARE GROSSLY EXAGGERATED THOUGH THERE HAVE BEEN REPORTS OF INCREASING INFILTRATION SINCE EARLY MAY. EVEN THESE REPORTS ARE TENUOUS ALTHOUGH THEY DO SUGGEST SOME MOVEMENT IS TAKING PLACE ALONG THE TRAILS. THERE HAS
SEEN NO CONFIRMATION THAT NORTH VIETNAMESE TROOPS HAVE BEGUN WITHDRAWING FROM LAOS. WHILE WE BELIEVE THERE WILL BE SOME COVERT WITHDRAWAL OF NORTH VIETNAMESE FROM LAOS FOLLOWING AN AGREEMENT AT GENEVA AND THAT INFILTRATION INTO SOUTH VIETNAM PROBABLY WILL BE ACCELERATED, WE DO NOT THINK THAT THE BULK OF NORTH VIETNAMESE IN LAOS WOULD BE TRANSFERRED TO SOUTH VIETNAM. PAST EXPERIENCE HAS SHOWN THAT THE NORTH VIETNAMESE NORMALLY PUT INFILTRATORS THROUGH SPECIAL TRAINING AND INDOCTRINATION BEFORE SENDING THEM SOUTH.
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