THE CRISIS USSR/CUBA

Created: 11/8/1962

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

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THE CRISIS USSR/CUBA

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"PREPARED FOR THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE OF THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL.

THE SITUATION IN CUBA

Photographyovemberotal ofBEAGLE) crates at San Julian airfield, four more thanovember. On bothotal of nineere observed, including five which appeared to be completely assembled. At Bolguln airfield, nineuselage crates remain on the parking apron; there is no evidence that the crate! are being unpacked.

Storage areas, probably for missiles used on Komar-class missile boats, have been identified at the Mariel naval air station and at the Banes naval base in Oriente Province. Eight Komar-class units are based at Mariel and four are at Banes.

LATIN AMERICAN DEVELOPMENTS

The US Embassy ln Mexico CJty warns that if Mexico breaks relations with Cud- local Communists can be expected to mount an all-out campaign of

violence, including attacks against US offices, citizens and property. rincipal reason for the limited pro-Castro activity so far is the fact that the Cuban Embassy has instructed local Communists to concentrate on propaganda and avoid action that would prejudice Mexican-Cuban relations. Another factor has been the extensive precautions taken by the Mexican government.

Soviet propaganda continues to accuse tbe United States of attempting to evade "its commitments" while the Soviet Union scrupulously fulfills its own obligations.

In demonstration of Soviet carry-through on thea TASS dispatch from New York alleges that thepads and powerful rockets have already been dismantled" and notos that the weapons are already being shipped out. The dispatch claims that Moscow has agreed to visualof the ships that are carrying the weapons on the open sea "by an appropriate international organ."

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In contrast, the dispatch charges the United States not only with refusing to "guarantee and firmly respect Cuba's sovereignty" but with advancing new demands that "look like ultimatums." Attempting to raise apprehension amongthat the tensions, which have subsided, might beTASS claims thatolicy on the part of the US is "fraught with great danger."

Moscow continues to indicate its displeasure at Castro's intransigence. Ambassador Kohler notes tbat, despite the gesture toward Cuba in Khrushchev's speech and toast atovember reception ln the Kremlin, the Cuban Ambassador was In fact neglected.

At the reception, Khrushchev called Ambassador Kohler aside and amplified his public hint that he did not fetleeting with the President would be fruitful at this time. Khrushchev said he felt it probably would be better now "If there were advance preparation on one or moreso that agreement would be inather thanIntoeeting. Then perhaps the President and he could meet, "maybe together with some other heads ofand register such agreements."

Moscow is also stepping up its efforts to present the United States and tho UNfait accompli" which will erase the need for any Inspection procedures other trbe observation on the high seas of tbe ships wbich are carrying nissiles back to the Soviet Union.

In New York, the Soviet delegation has taken the line that Red Cross inspection can last only until withdrawal of the missiles is completed, which they now estimate will be this Saturday. Since tho Red Cross now insists that Cuba

as well as the US and the USSR agree to its inspection of incoming cargoes, withdrawal of the missiles will beeven before this inspection can go into effect.has been asked by the UN for its agreement, but no response has been received.

The Soviet Union is continuing Its attempts tothe list of offensive weapons to missiles. It is now arguing that tbe quarantineIncluded Jet bombers as offensivean illegal act and therefore that the list of offensive weapons which itis not binding.

ember of the US delegation in NewUS observation on the open sea of the ships carrying missiles back to the Soviet Union, Moscow has Indicated Its willingness to allowby helicopters of the ships if bad weather makes this necessary.

Communist China's foreign minister, speaking at agiven yesterday in Pelping by the Soviet Ambassador, pointedly urged his listeners to avoid any attitude ofconcession, sacrificing sovereignty, and conniving with aggression." Hong Kong Communist newspapers areeven more pointed statements about the Soviet backdown on Cuba than tho mainland press. One newspaper recalled that Chamberlain did not last long after8 Munich deal, implyingowardly Khrushchev would meet the same fate.

There is little evidence that the Chinese arc giving much more than moral support to Castro,

BLOC SHIPPING TO AND FROM CUBA

Information available as0 EST indicates that four Soviet ships have departed Cuban ports for the USSRotal ofissiles. The latest departure was the 7IZIK KURCHATOV which left Casildarissiles aboard.

An additional five Soviet ships are engaged inmissiles and related equipment. The VOLGOLES andere loading at Marielovember. The LENIN-SKY KOMSOMOL was loading at Casllda. The ALAPAEVSK and the ALMETYEVSK were at the port of La Isabola.on 7loading missile-associated equipment.

Thirty missiles have been observed in Cuban port areas since the beginning of the Soviet withdrawal; photography taken during the buildup had lndentlfiedut of theofo which tbe Soviets have admitted.

ovember, there werend possiblyoviet dry cargo ships and one East German dry cargo ship en route to Cuba. There areoviet tankersassenger ship en route.

SOVIET SHIPS REMOVING MISSILES FROM CUBA (As0ovember)

ANASOV

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DVINOGORSK

IVAN POLZUNOV

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TOP SCCRCT

since Khrushchev

General: No significant change has been noted in the status of the major bloc military forces.

mantling the Cuban bases. ew anti-tank guided missile and an unidentified new handin the small bazookidisplayed during the Moscow parade.

Naval: The Soviet/Satellite exercise in the Baltic Sea continues. Naval units which had deployed Into the Sea of Okhotsk for an apparent exercise have moved northward to the vicinity of Nagayevo.

The tug PAMIR, now northeast of the Azores, isa southwesterly course, possibly to supportlass submarine which is moving northeast on the surface from the quarantine area. The auxiliary TEREK is following the sub-marineistance ofiles.

Also exhibited in the paradearge naval ballistic missile which Izvestia claims "can be fired from any position both above and below water."

Original document.

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