THE CRISIS USSR/CUBA

Created: 10/29/1962

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CENTRAL INTELLIGENCE AGENCY

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CRISIS USSR/CUBA

Information as02

PREPARED FOR THE EXECUTIVE COMMITTEE Of THE NATIONAL SECURITY COUNCIL.

FURTHER DISSEMINATION OF INFORMATION CONTAINED HEREIN IS NOT AUTHORIZED.

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SUMMARY CONTENTS

I. Castro, facederious setback to his Is evidently attempting to pressure the Soviet Union Into supporting his demands for major US concessions prior to the implementation of the Soviet pledge to remove the offensive military equipment from Cuba. Surveillance onctober (the moat recent) indicates that construction and camouflage activity were continuing at the MRBM and IRBM sites in Cuba.

II. Eight Soviettankers and four dry cargopresently en route to Cuba. One of the tankors, the GROZNY, ls just inside the quarantineapparently dead ln the water or proceeding at an extremely slow speed.

III. Mosco* this morning published the text of the President's reply to Khrushchev's announcement on the vith-draval of Soviet missiles. Tbe bloc public ls being told that Khrushchev has earned "personal credit" for his stroke for peace. Tbe emphasis being given throughout the blocS pledge not to invade Cuba reflects Moscow's urge to salvage prestige within its sphere. Pelping, however, is backing Castro's domands for further US concessions, and is evidently sticking to its aim of making Moscow look bad.

No significant changes have been observed in theof major Soviet or Satellite military forces.

IV. Four installations of the US-owned Creoleln the Venezuelan oil fields were sabotaged yesterda? mornii

expected.

U Thant, who Intends to depart for Cuba on Tuesday with between six and ten neutral military officers, has asked for an Indication from the Prosldent of what "assurances" the US Is prepared to offer Cuba.

Little reaction has come in yet from LatinKhrushchev's dismantling announcement. Elsewhere inworld the news is being greeted with Jubilation,an occasional note of caution. The British Foreignhas expressed official pleasure. The press lnla using such phrases as "unbelievably happy"satisfying." The French are showing In Westote of apprehension aboutis still being sounded,West Berlin itselfsome signs of quiet

Canada's Lester Pearson is quoted as saying that if the settlement can lead to progress on disarmament, "then we can be even more grateful to President Kennedy for his firm stand."

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I. The Situation In Cuba

Castro, facederious setback to his prestige, is evidently attempting to pressure tbe Soviet Union Into supporting his demands for major US concessions prior to the Implementation of the Soviet pledge to remove themilitary equipment from Cuba.

Castro'sctober statement, Issued shortly after publication: of Khrushchev's letter of the same day toKennedy, listed five conditions which be said tbe US must meet before "guarantees against US aggression" can These conditions are: essation of all commercial and economic pressure againstnd end to allactivities carried out against the Castro regime from the territory of tbe US and other "accompliceessation of "pirate attacks" on Cuba;n end to violations of our air and naval space" by US aircraft and ships;vacuation of the US Naval Base at Guantanamo Bay.

Except for the reference in the body of Castro'sthere has been no mention in domestic Cuban media of Khrushchev'sctober letter to President Kennedy. Castro's statement, on the other badd, has been given heavy coverage. Special editions of Havana's two leading newspapers,the Communist Hoy, were issued to cover Castro'swhich was also given heavy play by Cuban radio stations, andpeech later ln the day by Raul Castro.

Raul ridiculed tbe idea that tbe US could be trusted to abide by any "non-aggression guarantee" unless Fidel's terms are met. He concluded: "Whatever happened, whatever President Kennedy says, Cuba will remain mobilized until its commander ln chief orders the contrary." In this speech, Raul Castro also spelled out bis brother's reference to the US Naval Base in terms which suggest tbat no immediate Cuban action is invlsaged. He said: "Sooner or later, this (evacuation of the Base by the US) has toit has to happen, we reiterate once more, through peaceful means."

Cuban military preparations continued duringctober and Cuban radio stations carried extensive Instructions for civil defense.

An early reaction to tbectober Kennedy-Khrushchev exchange from an anti-Castro Individual inside Cuba lsrepresentative of the reaction to come from many Cubanshome and in exile who oppose the regime. An individual in Cuba,riend in Miami by telephone: "We are now rid of the Russians, but we have Castro still. The Cuban people are crushed."

Other Cubans reported by telephone to friends andin Miami onctober.that food shortages areto be felt ln Havana, that arrests of known ordissidents are continuing ln various parts of the country, and that the Voice of America broadcasts are getting good reaction in Havana.

Construction and improvement activityctober at tbe MRBM and IRBM sites in Cubathe last low altitude photography.taken ncluding covering with canvas and thetheI

Activity at the IRBM sites was proceedingigh rate. The number of vehicles noted at Guanajay site 1from at leastnctober to at leastnctober. Additional missile support equipment had also been moved to this site. Atignificant amount of construction was completed betweenndctober. Work was also continuing at the Remedios IRBM site onctober.

The photography ofctober also provides additional evidence that all MRBM and IRBM sites were intended to have nuclear warhead bunkers.

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II. SOVIET SHIPPING TO CUBA

Eight Soviettankers and four drypresently en route to Cuba. One of theGROZNY, ls Just inside tbe quarantinein the water or proceeding at an extremely slowof the dry cargo ships, tbe BELOVODSK, is about afrom entering tbe zone. In addition to tbeone Czech freighter also ls headed toward Cuba.Information on the cargoes being transported byis incomplete, none is believed to be carrying

III. THE SITUATION IN THE BLOC

A. REACTION TO KHRUSHCHEV DISMANTLING ANNOUNCEMENT

Moscow bas moved quickly to dramatize Khrushchev'sctober offer to dismantle the Soviet bases in Cuba under UN supervisionajor step in guaranteeing world peace. Khrushchev's reference to US assurances against an invasion of Cuba is being highlighted in Soviet domestic propaganda ln an apparent effort to convince the Soviet audience that unilateral US action was averted by the Soviet Premier's move.

Khrushchev's indication that tbe USSR wishes to take up negotiations with the US on broader internationalwas reiterated by Soviet Pirst Deputy ForeignKuznetsov on his arrival last night in New York. Kuznetsov nor Khrushchev mentioned Berlin, suggesting that for the time being at least Moscow Intends to play this issue ln low key. The Soviets also avoided any suggestionink between Cuba and the Berlin situation in theirctober overtures to the West Germans to useeaceful settlement of the Cuban crisis.

The Communist bloc's initial treatment of theexchange reflects tbe impact the Soviet backdown ls bound to have on the USSR's position as leader of the bloc. East European press and radio comment attributes the Soviet decision to President Kennedy's assurances not toCuba, but also reiterates Moscow's theme thatdeserves "personal credit" for preserving the peace.

rief dispatch. Radio Warsaw hinted at asettlement on other.pressing International issues by stating that in this "new atmosphero" lt may finallypossible to conduct negotiations on questions of great international significance. Belgrade, which was cautious ln itsarlier in tbe crisis, ls now emphasizing the "statesmanlike" role played by Khrushchev. i- easing tensions.

The USSR apparently did not coordinate its move with the Castro regime. Aside from Castro's brief reference, Havana has not commented publicly on Khrushchev's message. Similarly, Moscow has only briefly reported Castro's

statement but has not commented on his demands. While the Soviet Union has declared its willingness toits missile bases from Cuba, lt has indicated it will continue to support Castro and provide economic aid to help him maintain his regime.

Immediately prior to Khrushchev'seciprocal Soviet-US withdrawal offrom Cuba and Turkey, tbe USSR reportedlybring pressure to bear on the Turkish government tounilaterally the* use Of

The US Embassy in Moscow reports that there does not seem to be any restrictions on tourist or business travel within the Soviet Union. According to one unconfirmedmeasures which were taken by the USSR to limit the movement of certain foreigners at the beginning of the Cuban crisis have now been lifted.

A terse Radio Peiping newscast reported the latestmove without comment. But the bulk of Chineseon Cuba continues to emphasize US military preparations and repeated pledges of Chinese support for Cuba. Ten thousand Chinese were paraded in the streets of Peiping onctober to hear regime spokesmen reiterate these pledges. Thus far, Peiping has been the only bloc capital tothe text of Castro's statement demanding evacuation of

Guantanamo.

Khrushchev's Cuban retreat will be used by thetheir efforts to undermine confidence ln Sovietof Communist world affairs. Even before thethe Chinese were implying to the Cubans thatwas an untrustworthy

Peiping undoubtedly will portray Khrushchev's movea Cuban solution as weakness in tbe face of theenemy." Albania, Peiping's European ally, already has reported that the Western press is regardingettervictory for American diplomacy."

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IV. NON-BLOC DEVELOPMENTS

U Thant said last evening that he intends to takesix and ten neutral military officers with him to Havana on Tuesday to begin Inspection of Soviet missile and bomber sites. The officers will be supervised byBrigadier Rlkhye, If Thant's military adviser, who said that on arrival his men will be sent to the locations cited in US information and have them report on dismantling and removal. hant told US representatives at the United Nations that it would be helpful to him ln his discussions with Cuban officials if tbe US. could suspend reconnaissance flights and the shipping quarantine during his.stay. He has also asked for an indication from the President of the "assurances" the US ls prepared to offer Cuba.

Word on the official and public reaction in Latin America bas not yet begun to come in. However, Venezuela's delegate to the UN, possibly representative of one line of thought, yesterday expressed his concern to our delegation lest the US get trapped into commitments in Cuba beyond the guarantee against "invasion."

The sabotage of four electrical substations of the US-owned Creole Corporation ln the Lake Maracalbo oil fields early onctober probably was carried out by Venezuelan Communists acting on orders Issued the day before. Anbut evidently Cuban-based transmitterad Instructed unknown Lat.'n American recipients to start the destruction of "any kind of Yankee property."

Initial estimates of Creole officials were that about one sixth of Venezuela's dally productionillionwould be temporarily lost. These officials said lt will be several days before lt ls known when production can be resumed.

Western European countries greeted the news ofdecision to remove the missile bases withjoy, relief, and some no+es of caution. ritish Foreign Office spokesman said tu. government was "pleased" by the news and by Khrushchev's agreement to accept UNof the dismantling. The conservative Dally Tele-

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Khrushchev's move became known. Prime Minister Macmillan said that once the Cuban situation is normalized, the way would be open for wider East-West negotiations, including' talksuclear test ban.

The French showed cautious optimism, seeing theof additional surprises. In Canada, Liberal leader Pearson remarked that if the settlement can lead toon disarmament, "then we can be even more grateful to President Kennedy for his firm stand."

Norwegian Prime Minister Gerhardson said "This is an almost unbelievably happy outcomeituation that could have had the most disastrous consequences." SwedishMinister Hllson described the news as "enormouslyhile Bonn's All-German Affairs Minister Lemmer found it "wonderful, astounding," The oppositionRundschau warned, however, thatilltry to compensate for the direct retreat in Cubaiplomatic offensive at another place." But Berlin-ers did not appear worried, and Mayor Brandt expressed the hope that his city "would feel something of the change which is going through the world."

The Copenhagen radio onctober expressed the view that the reason for Khrushchev's "capitulation" was to be found in two events of tbe previous nigbt: an allegedby Ambassador Stevenson to Allied ambassadors that the US would knock out the missile and bomber bases withinours if Work on them was not stopped forthwith; and the mobilization of US transport aircraft, "which could have no other meaning than that the US was preparing tothe Soviet Cuban bases."

Turkish Foreign Minister Erkln has been quoted by Agence France Presse as voicing his belief that tensions will "fade away" with the dismantling of the missile bases. Damascus radio broadcast that Premier al-Azm hasable to Khrushchev praising his "brave and noble"apanese Government statement calls the latest Kennedy-Khrushchev exchangeatter for much rejoicing."

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