THE SITUATION IN WEST BERLIN

Created: 6/14/1963

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THE SITUATION IN WEST BERLIN

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THE SITUATION IN WEST BERLIN

By alnost every political and economic the situationexisting in Vest Berlinealthy one. Soviet pressure has been morale Is excellent, and the econoay la operatingigh level. Mayor Brandt and tbe Senat, however, wouldoviet-westernagreement to improve the security of the city and alleviate the dislocations crested by the Wall. They also are trying to facilitate eco-nonlc expansion, which Is handicapped by aof labor and investment capital.

Brandt's Views

As recentlyune, Brandt was saying that theappear to realize that the Western presence in Berlinact they cannot change by bullying tactics. On the other hand, neither he nor Berllners at large are willing to give up the hope that some sort of arrangement can be worked out for eventual all-German

ractical politician, Brandt recognizes that no final Berlin settlement is possible outside the framework of ato the German problemhole. He la hopeful that the efforts to bring about anin the East German economy might pave the way for political conditionsapprochement between tbe two parts of Germany, but admits that he does not seeoccurring any time soon.

The main question now, In Brandt's opinion, isolerable interim solution can be reached. olution, be insists, must contain several essential elements. In his view, theseuaranteeontinuing presence of

Allied troops lo the city; maintenance and expansion of vital ties with West Germany; improved security of land access; elimination of vestigial East German authority over certain installations in West Berlin; and provisions for visits by West Berllners to friends and relatives in East Berlin.

In the meantime, Brandt believes that the city ought not merely to mark time. Be feels that it Is mandatory that Berlin push forward on all fronts to maintain its political and economic viability. In addition, be is eager to promote the idea that Berlin stands on its ownultural and scientific center.

This year may see some progress on the Senat's slow-starting development program to Include projects anddesigned to stakeenter of free world activity. The plan,ear ago, callsariety of projects, such as expansion of the Free and Technical universities and creation of an American Institute, an international pedagogical center, and an international documents center. The planners also set considerable store by

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proposal to organize

institute for automationraining school ln economics, technology, and education for young people from developing countries. the senat iathat not only tbe federal republic, but also the us, uk, and franca will aid ln thaof tha plan, estimated to costillion.

brandt'a tactics

to facilitate thoof the kind of interim agreeaent be wante, brandt is willing toertain number

of concessions to tba east german regime which do notrecognition. to secure guaranteed access, for example, be favors an internationalwith eaat german partic-loatlon. to arrange inter-sector crossing for vest bar-liners, be la prspsred to permit de facto contacts with the east german authorities.

however, brandt la adamantly opposed to allowing the com-munlata to exert any direct influence over west berlin. he has been preaslng tbe allies to end eaat german control of the railways sod elevated lineahn) that enter veat he strongly believes,that the vest should not allow tbe communists to atlp-ulate whether activities such as bundestag meetings can take place ln veat berlin. in his judgment, lt la leas important for the vestern powers toon their legal rights throughout berlin than to

exerclae authority in tbe three veatern sectors.

the importance to brandt of bundeatag sessions in berlin la that tbeyowerful reminder that tha city larightful capital,indissoluble links with tba federal republic. in con-traat to tbe allied view that veat berlin is an alliedzonepecialwith bonn, both the berlin and bonn governments regard ittats of vest germany. brandt's tenacity in refuelng to sacrifice this principle la seen Id his insistence that berlin bo included in veattreaties with other powera.

brandt's policies were firmly endorsed by west berliners in last february's elections. his social dsmocratlc party capturedercent of theet gainercent, while tbe chrlstlsn democratic union (cdu)ike percentage. by mutual agreement, the cdu dropped out of the coalition that bad governed berlin5 and was replaced by tbe free democrats.

generally conceded to havearge factor ln the electoral results was brandt's willingness to meet khrushchev in eaat berlin tbe month before the election. it was vetoed by the berlin cdu, and thereby disappointed popular hopea thateeting might have ladelaxation of the barrlera between east and west berlin.

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All outward signs Indicate that Berliners are confident of their city's security and its long-run prospects. The large-scale exodus that was feared would develop after the Wall went up in1 simply did not come off. In fact, population movements during the first four months of this year et gain. Morale, in short, is at its post-Wall peak, and will probably go even higherPresident Kennedy's visit.

The political reasons for this high morale are twofold: One is the Soviet backdown ln Cuba; the other is the prolonged relaxation of Soviet pressure on the city.

The Wallonstant and recurrent actions against it are to be anticipated. However, many West Berlinerssuch activities as futile and foolish, and Brandt, after some ambivalence, seems to agree. West Berliners have by no means reconciled themselves to tbe Wall, but they do not see what can be done about it in the absence of Four-Poweron an interim status for the city.

Economic Conditions

Another reason for good morale Is West Berlin's thriving economy. Although subsidized by the Bonn government to the extent of0ear, the city's industry and

commerce not only have held up since Khrushchev Initiated the Berlin crisisut have expanded considerably. In fact, tbe striking achievement of the West Berlin economy has been it3 ability to keep pace with the boom in West Germany. The gross product over this period rose4 billion7 billion, and production Increased by about one half in terms of value. Industrial production for the past two years has atercent of6 figure, personal savings are at an all-time high,is less than twoand the backlog of orders has stabilized following apost-Wall slump.

In the more important branches of tbe capital-goods industry, enough orders are on hand to keep tbe factories busy for the next seven to nine months. Sincehe balance of trade with Westhas been roughly equal, and has been maintained without cutting back imports.

Despite the economic progress achieved tourtherIs handicappedhortage of labor and Investment capital. This is reflected in the fact that the economic growth rate last year was below that

The labor shortage is due, in part, to an unusually high incidence of older people; tbe percentage of persons unders half that of West Germany's. To correct this imbalance, the

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governmentrying to attract new people to tbe city. As tbe resultecruitment program undertaken shortly after the fall vent0 West Germans have gone to take Jobs ln West Berlin. Foreign workers have also beenfor the constructionmors will be, but the size of this program will be limited by the opposition of the trade unions,

The big problem, however, is the attraction of young people willing to stay. All too many who come are young single men, motivatedesire toservice ln the West German Army and who may not remain for long. The Berlin government is therefore especiallyln young married couples who will make their home in Berlin. To get them to come, tbe Senat hasumber of including low-cost bousing and financial assistance.

Brandt and the Senatthat Berlinarge-scale injection of long-term capital, both to provide the facilities demanded byand to enlarge tbebase. Commercial long-term credit, however, Is not readily available, and

Brandt has been unsuccessfular In bis attempt tothe Bonn government to Increase long-term credits. The major source of capital for Berlin continues to lie chiefly ln the Federal Republic, but some West Germanremain reluctant to make new investments ln the city.

Outlook

While the outlook for West Berlin is promising, tbe city, nonetheless, faces an uncertain future. Koch depends on whether the abatement of Sovietwill continue. Aperiod of calm will give the Berliner time to fortify himselfwell aafuture

pressures.

The changeover anticipated this October in Bonn fromto Erbard'sla an added and as yet unassessable factor. themselves, however, may well hope that Erhard will concern himself sore with the welfare of their city than did the old

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