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INTELLIGENCE
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Proposed approach to pinning down some free-floating terms often used in intelligence.
OARD OF DEFINITIONS George Berkeley
uclear physicist were to write thatew whatchamacallitsew thingamajig when they bouncedlew ofe might suggest that his terminology needed honing. Yet day in aod day out we let reporters of political events (me included) get away with talking aboutinsurgency'."thethethe slighdy left ofnd many other concepts that lack any universally accepted definitions.
Why?
My guess is that it's because the poets don'tlike to keep words nice andtheaven't united to do soinething about it. This article is one mathematician's brief for doing something. Unless those of us concerned with the flow of information up through the pipeline to the policy makers understand clearly what our terms mean we will continue to waste timeeach other out or. worse, let ourselves in for some serious rnisunclerstartoangs.
Some Kind of Measles
1 For this usage of "poets* and "matbemitk-iaoj" see Stereosn Cent, "Words of Ijamativetudies VUI.
At an exampleord that is open to all sorts of interpretations, let's lookealOn one day inead two accountsrisis in Brazil's state petroleum agency, Petrobras. The firstewspaper editorial. It said, "The na-tsotsahsts In Petrobras denounce the Communists and vicemong those that the newspaper called "rationalists" was thepresident. The other account was an intelligence report. Itommunist leader as saying that the Petrobras president was trying "to demoralize the nationalists and thehe context made it clear that the Communist leader considered the two groups to be allied with one another, with the president their mutual enemy.
CONFIDENTIAL
I once threw out to an English class in Brazil the question, "Whathe answers that came back ranged all the way fromatriot" to 'a Communist" (And the fellow who said "patriot" was no Communist, if you're wondering.)
What bod of word Is this that means so many things to so many people? It's only one member of the whole class of compoundthat this article is concerned with.atter of fact, there's no dearth of definitions for these words. Every scholar in the behavioral sciences setting out toook apparently feels obliged to come upew set of definitions uniquely his. For "nationalism" our literature is rich in definitions. Some samples:
"Nabcmalurn; kryalty aod devotion tonation;ense of national censcrouxness exalting one mtioo above all others and placing primary emphasis on promotion, of Its culture and interests as opposed to those of other nations or supranational groups."
Seventh New Collegiate Dictionary
-Natiotsalism is tbe pteifrcr.ee for tbe competitive Interestation and its members 'over those oi ill Outsidersorld of social mobility and economic competition, dominated by the values of wealth, power, and pm-tjge, so that the goals of personal seeur.ty and group identification appear bound up with the group's attainment of these values."
W. Deutscb tn NnttonofUm and Social Commumafbon
"Ittate of mind tn which we give our paramount political loyalty to one fraction of the humanthe particular tribe of which we happen to be tribesmen. Is so far a* we are captured by this ideology, we bold that the highest political good foe ui is our own nation's sovereign issdroendeoce; that out rationoral right to exercise its sovereignty according to what it believes to be Its own national interests, whateverthis may entail for tbe foreign majority of the humannd that our duty, as csuxeos of curo support our country, right or wrong."
I. Toynbee to Newime* Svmday Magazine.
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roduct of political, economic, social, and intellectual factorsertain stage inondition of mind, reeling, or sentimentroup of people IrvingdeSued geographical area,ommon language,iterature In which tbeof the nation have been erpressed, attached to common traditions and eoosraoc customs, venerating its own heroes, and. In tome cases,ommon religion."
L. Snyder to TA* Meaning oj NaUondlmm
he measles of rnarddnd."
Einstein (quotedetter to TOne.
issue of
Definition*
The duTcrences among thcie range from fine intellectualto the moral connotations strongly felt by Toynbee, whom you can almost see shaking his head in dismay, and Einstein, who minces oo words at all.
Some scholarseed for breaking down the concept into more than one category. Hani Kohn distinguishesationalism in the Western worldationalism outside the Western world. Snyder hashronological classification using these labels: integrabve. disruptive, aggressive. contemporary rationalism. Other writers have used many modifiers to show the variety of forms that nationalism can take:iberaL"rrtedievaL"cultural"
The label is thus subject to more interpretations than the elephant was to the seven blind men. But "nationalism" is unequivocally clear in comparison with those warped old standards "right" and "left" At your next party,arlor game. Have each guest write hisof these political labels.rize to any two of them that agree. But don't bother toeal prize on hand; you won't need it.
So much for the problem.
The Recommendation
Now Is the time. In my opinion, to setoard to define abstract concepts relevant to the intelligence business. Because the need for precise verbal standards reaches its apogee in the intelligencethe mitiative in organisingoard should be taken by that community. The coordinating role, the fab of running theclearing-house, should rest with an official group.
This group should by no means work behind high walls. On the contrary, it should be in close touch with the unofficial intelligence community, and byean university faculties, book publishers, newspaper editors, and other private citizens who contribute to the flow of information that is intelbgenee in its broadest sense. At the outset of the program and perhaps periodically thereafter the board might invite members of this unofficial intelligence community to participate
Let's say that the board has been organized andundred or so private entities have abo agreed to take part Here is one possible modus operandi: Tlie board chooses an abstract concept like
ENTIAL
one of those in the Gistesearcherelection of definitions already in use in some part of the world. The board might meet to concoct one or more new definitions. The board then sends to all participants, official andopy of theseof the term under consideration.
At this point the board relaxespell- It gives theood, long stretch to mull the matter over and submit comments and recommendations. Six months or more would be quite reasonable for this phase. This is one program that is uncrash. The ball is now with the participating entities {parents, to coin aoheiroingle definition which employs aof abstractions and relies as much as possible oo Quantifiable criteria.
What we're asking of the parents is their help in substitutingor otherwise measurable elements for abstract terms like the "competitivesocialnd "values" in Deutsch's definition above. Tooream, you say? Not at all. One school of behavioral scientists has been gaining ground on theproblem for at least twenty years."
My job does not place me in contact with them,an't draw any current examples of their work from first-hand knowledge. But let's suppose that one of them has been studying the correlations between the ethnic breakdowns of entire populations and the ethnic breakdowns of their national legislative bodies. He might propose that one of the criteria for defining "democracy" should be just this correlation. If it's betterertain figure, the government under study meets one of the criteriaemocracy. Another measurable phenomenon relevant to this definition: the number of political parties that ran candidates in the last national election.
Getting back to the modus operandi, after the sut-month incubation period the board considers all entries, choosesomposite ofpublishes the results for distribution to members of the intelligence community and to the parents. The finished product is apt to be long. It may run to the lengthational IntclLgencc Estimateong magazine article. Excessive?
't Itast two kindred spirits haveeginning within our irnnwdiaU' community. Both the Kent article Cited earlier and "The DeBnitwo of Some Estimativey David L. Wark in the same ttaue of the Studies, sought toonsensus oo thethroe Be implications of racb words as "poMible" aod "probable."
Definitions
Probably not; abstractions arc like thatozen French mathematicians started out toefinitive study of their subject they found theyages to deal with the ins and outs of the number "one" alone.
Side Benefit*
Two by-products of all this activity are worth noting. First, with so much talent focussed on abstract concepts, one by one, we are surely going to discover newer and better ways of dividing up and classifying some of them. We mayew term now and thenewly isolated concept Through the board and the parents we will have an unprecedented test market for tentative terminology.
Second. If well organized and managed, the board's activities wiD win the respect of influential entitles outside the intelligenceIt will beublic service. In its modest way it should earn some favorable press comment, andubmit Is something that the community could use.
Our Creek forebears believed that tbe universe consisted of only fourwater, air. and earth. Today we know of ten varieties, or isotopes,ingle element calledot of people along the way haveot ofquantifying.had to, of course. Our rising level ofhesciences Isauseesult of their work- In tackling behavioral science problems In similar fashion we wilt be making useesson abeady learned by the operations researchers; "Some o( the intangibles that one generation treats by experience are converted to measurable factors by the nest generation."1
But to avotd the chargeonsider all abstract words completely reducible to quantifiable terms, let me hastily second the rest of tbe above quotation; "Thisever-ending one because reality is too complex to be completely circumscribedinite set of mcas ur emeriti."
' Davidlier it Martin K. Stair, Ettadtoi DtcUkmi and Operations ftf-march (EnglcwoodreoUce.
Original document.
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