LATIN AMERICA BRIEF (DELETED) FOR 30 OCTOBER 1993.

Created: 10/30/1993

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

FOR CTOBER

THIS IS A COMBINED MESSAGE

BODY

SUBJECT: LATIN AMERICA

MAY FORM NEH GOVERHMEHT

POLICE CHIEF FRANCOIS HAS TOLD SUPPORTERS THAT HE STILL BACKSLAN TO REPLACE THE MALVAL GOVERNMENT KITH A TRANSITIONAL ONE UNDER SUPREME COJJRT, JUSUCf .JQNASSAJNT. TO BE FQUONEDTION

PREPARING FOR TOMORROW'S DEADLI HE

HAITIAN POLICE and IOLENT PROTESTS TOMORROW.IB FRANCOIS HAS ASKED RIGHTIST GROUPSrfflTTtr^TTT^TeTlWT^'ET&'T^^TOT WANT TO

GIVE THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY AN EXCUSE TO INVADE. FRANCOIS HAS TOLD INTERIOR MINISTER PROSPER THAT HE WILL NOT LET ANY RADICAL GROUP CREATE CIVIL DISORDER.

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COMMENT: THE MILITARY ANO THE POLICE PROBABLY HILL BE ABLE TO FORESTALL MAJOR OUTBREAKS OF UNREST BY MOVING QUICKLY AND RUTHLESSLY TO QUELL AHY DEMONSTRATIONS. ARISTIDE'S SUPPORTERS, HOWEVER, HAVf SHOHN LITTLE HIL LINGNESS TO TAKE TO THE STREETS RECENTLY. '

REACTION TO ARISTIDE'S SPEECH

ARMY CHIEF CFOBAS HAS PUBLICLY DENOUNCED ARISTIDE'S SPEECH TO THE UN ON THURSDAY, CHARACTERIZING THE PRESIDENT'S DEMANDS THAT HE AND FRANCOIS LEAVE HAITI BEFORE ARISTIDE RETURNS AS OVERSTEPPING THE BOUNDS OF THE GOVERNORS ISLAND ACCORD.

COMMENT: CEDRAS AND OTHER RIGHTISTS WILL USE THE SPEECH TO ARGUE THAT THE PRESIDENT LACKS COMMITMENT TO THE ACCORD, AND THE MILITARY PROBABLY WILL GREET HIS CALL FOR NATIONAL RECONCILIATION WITH SKEPTICISM. PRIME MINISTER MALVAL HAS SAID THAT ARISTIOE'S CALL FOR A TOTAL BLOCKADE IS A "HEAVY BURDEN" OH THE COUNTRY. HE ALMOST CERTAINLY RECOGNIZESLOCKADE WOULD FURTHER UNDERMINE HIS GOVERNMENT.

TRYING TO REVIVE THE ACCORD

AT A PRESS CONFERENCE YESTERDAY, UN ENVOY CAPUTO URGED ALL HAITIAN PARTIES TO HOLDEW ROUND OF TALKS TO REVIVE THE NATIONAL RECONCILIATION ACCORD. HE EMPHASIZED THAT THE CURRENT AGREEMENT IS THE ONLY VALID FRAMEUORK FOR A SOLUTION AND THAT THE MILITARY MUST CLARIFY ITS COMMITMENT TO THE ACCORD BY ASKING THE UN MISSION TO DEPLOY IN HAITI. CAPUTO WARNED THE MILITARY THAT ^INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY HILL RESPOND IMMEDIATELY WITH STRONG SANCTIONS IF THERE IS ANY MOVE TO CALL A HEH ELECTION. |

COMMENT: THE MILITARY IS NOT LIKELY TO BE SHAVED BY THREATS OF ADDITIONAL SANCTIONS. ARMY LEADERS PROBABLY BELIEVE THAT THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNITY'S SUPPORT FOR ARISTIDE IS WANING.

GROWING PESSIMISM IN ARISTIDE'S CAMP

SEVERAL MEMBERS OF MALVAL'S CABINET. DUBIOUS THAT AR1ST IDE ARE INCLINED TO RESIGN THEIR POSTS.

GENERAL STAFF CONCERNED

-SOME OFFICERS ON THE GENERAL STAFFllQRASIS UNSURE HOW TO PROCEED. THEY ARE ALSO UNHAPPY HITH HIS INCREASING RELIANCE ON CIVILIAN ADVISERS AND FEAR HE NO LONGER TRUSTS THEM. DISAPPOINTED OFFICERS ALMOST CERTAINLY HILL AVOID ANY PUBLIC DISAFFECTION.

Original document.

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