LATIN AMERICA BRIEF (DELETED) FOR 18 OCTOBER 1993.

Created: 10/18/1993

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

TP CTEP DOWN.

CHIEF FRANCOIS RECENTLY BRAGGED THAT HE EXPECTS TO PREVAIL IN HIS STANDOFF WITH THE INTERNATIONAL COMHUN1TY AND PLA. TO BE IN PLACE^yiflSAFTER ARISTIDF-CTFRH ES z&awf

TE DTTj HAS BEHIND THE MURBeB BP IHE JUSTICE

MINISTER LAST UEEK AND DESCRIBED THE PROHILI TARY THUGS AS NOT BEING CONTROLLED BY ANY INDIVIDUAL. Q

COMMENT: FEAR OF A FOREIGN INVASION OR RETRIBUTION BY ARISTIDE'S SUPPORTERS REMAINS THE MOST POTENT INFLUENCE ONILITARY. THE RUMOR MILL AND THE HIGH COMMAND'S FAILURE TO KEEP THE

TROOPS INFORMED MAKE THE RANK AND FILE ESPECIALLY VULNERABLE TO <J- MANIPULATION BY FRANCOIS AND OTHER HARDLINERS. ALTHOUGH HELL-KNOWN RIGHTISTS. SOME LINKED TO THE DUVAL IER REGIME. ALMOST CERTAINLY AREBEHIND SOME OF THE VIOLENCE, THE THUGS NEED THE SUPPORT OF THE I POLICE AND THE ARMED FORCES TO OPERATE.