TEXT OF CIA REPORT (TDCS DB-315/03473-67) RE CONCLUSION THAT THE VIETNAM WAR C

Created: 8/30/1967

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LBJ LIBRARY Mandatory ReviewLI OO'^PH document ftto Wednesday,

OF CIA REPORT

rs ICI

Ambassador Herve Alphand, Secretary General of tno French Foreign Ministry, said onhat it was the conclusion of his government that the Vietnam war cannot bo won and that the only solution is an American initiativeeasefireomplete withdrawaleriod of two years. The withdrawal should be accompanied by guarantees for the integrity of both North and South Vietnam, and these guarantees, as well as the ceasefire, should be supervisedonsortium of nations organized for the purpose.

Alphand said his government was in touch with the Hanoi government and also with representatives of the Viet Cong in Algeria and Phnom Penh. The French government, therefore, believes that the proposition Alphand is describing would not be unacceptable to North Vietnam and the Vtet Cong. The war cannot be won because Ho Chi Minh is prepared to take any punishment that can be meted out, including even the destruction ot Hanoi, and because the North Vietnamese are willing to live in the hills for years rather than capitulate. At the same time, the Hanoi government woulduarantee of the Integrity of North Vietnam because it fears the Chinese. upervised ceasefireithdrawal with guarantees of

integrity might eventually resultombined Vietnam, but probably

noteriod of at least fifteen years.

Alphand expressed the opinion that an approach such as he described would bring about results. He considered that previous gestures by the American President had always teen accompanied by conditions and that the only proposal that would work wouldimple proposal which would involve ceasefire, timed withdrawal, andguarantees of integrity.

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