WEEKLY REVIEW: JUNTA CONSOLIDATES POWER

Created: 5/3/1974

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Th.EVIEW. iuued every Friday morning by In* OHIce of Current Intefligence. reports andnb of the will Chrougn noon on Thursday, it frequently Includes material coordinated with or prepared by the Office otVEconomlc Research, the Office of Strategy Research,Directorate of Science and Technology. Topics raquWirtfVora comerartansna treatment and tharefora published separeAfy as Special Reports are listed in the contents.

Portugal

CONSOLIDATES POWER

The seven-man junta headed by General Antonio dc Spinola, which assumed leadership in Portugal after the almost bloodless coup last week, has already issued decrees designed todomestic liberties and consolidate its power. Political groups, labor unions, and studentwhich had been quiescent under thegovernment, have become active. It the junta is willing to include representatives of both the left and right in the provisionalto be established within two weeks-and is able to persuade them to join, this would augur well for the stability of the country over the near term.

General Spinola met earlier this week with representatives of various political parties that were illegal under the previous regime. Afor the parties described the meeting as very cordial, but the moderates appeared to be more satisfied than the far leftists. The lettists were disappointed that Spinola refused lo consult with them on the formation of the government and that he refused toommitment ondecolonization.

Political groups are busily organizing, issuing manifestos, and collecting funds. Socialist leader Mario Soares and Communist Party leader Atvaro Cunhal are playing prominent roles following their triumphant return from exile. Both parties have participated in the formationeftist coalition, the Portuguese Democratic Movement, to serveehicle for participation in the new government. This would comply with Spinola's announcement that he favors broad coalitions

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working to Ou<ld fiisTyT^TrTngth. and probablyetter chance than Communist leader Cunhal ofinisterial post in the provisional government.

In an attempt to reform the state-controlled universities, the junta has dismissed their rectors. Student associations previously closed down by the Caetano government are reopening, and campus political activity appears to be on the rise.

The labor organizations that were formed by the ousted regime are also undergoing changes. In Lisbon and Oporto, leaders foisted upon the organizations by the previous government are being fired and workers are electing new leaden.

In an effort to consolidate his power within the military Spinola has reinstated Generalda Costa Gomes,ember of the junta, in his previous job as chief of staff of the armed forces. Costa Gomes, who had approved the publication of Spinola's book, was fired from his job in March, ostensibly for refusing toeremonial oath of allegiance to the old regime. Three other junta members have taken over as chiefs of staff of the air force, army, and navy. The junta has retiredenior officers, including two former ministers and the exchiefs of staff, therebyotential threat from senior officers who have remained faithful to the Caetano government.

Come* and Spinola, and Captain of the Navy Pinbeiro

TOP SECnCT UMBflA

IMPACT IN PORTUGUESE AFRICA

The Spinola junta is being widely supported by the Portuguese powerll three African territories. Civilian and rnilitaryart being run. on an interim basis, by the deputies to the governors general and the military commanders that were relieved of theirshortly after the coup. The transition has been largely without incident.

The idea of greater autonomy foropular one. particularly in Angola and Mozambique, which have sizable white settler populations that have long wanted lessfrom theolitically, however, Lisbonroblem stemming from the former government's refusal to allow localorganizations. The now regime will now nave to permit the emergence of such organizations, broadlyomposition, if its now African policy is to have any meaning. One group in Mozambique that had bean accepted by the Caetano governmentultural organization has since tha coup openly avowed political ambitions.

since the first of the yoai, markedlow but steady southward Infiltration, Their militarycould be enough to press Lisbonialogue.

In Portuguese Guinea the military stalemate that developed convinced Spinola during his five years as governor general of the futility ofilitary solution. Tho African Party for the Independence of Portuguese Guinea and Cape Verde consistently has waged the strongestand political effort of all the Africanorganizations. Last September, the party proclaimed the "Republic ofhich is now recognized by morefrican, and other Third World countries as welt as by the Organization of African Unity. The "republic" has been granted observerhe UN and intends to push for membership at the next UN General Assembly. Although the African party's territorial claims are inflated, it may be the first of the liberation movements to gain political concessions from

The ouster of Caetano has been welcomed by Portuguese Africa's liberation movements and by the black African governments that have been supporting them through moreecade of insurgency. The guerrilla groups have rejected Spinola's federation concept, however, and have reiterated their demands lor completeFor the time being, they are likely toait-and-see attitude.

In deciding future policy. Lisbon will have to take into account the Quite different military and political situations that prevail in tha three territories. In Angola, three rival insurgenteach with serious factional, recruiting, or logistic problems, have failed to gain eventerritorial control. It seems unlikely thatwill be ready to negotiate with any of these groups in the near future.

In Mozambique, tha insurgents are unified, and their activity has beanodest upswing

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WEEKLY REVIEW May4

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