APPRAISAL OF SEC SIT

Created: 12/17/1973

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

date .jDeLLI.JWI

that the militart had re-established order throughout the country amd that the coup d'etat oneptember had taken leftist leaders by surprise.

capability of operating clandestinelyuch as the movement of the revolutionary leftnd the communist party of chile (pcch)are now in the first phase of subversion. they are avoiding direct contron tat ion with the government and are reorganizing with the intention op

5 BIURET

overthrowing the government. the first phase hill be completed by. the end of december, given the following indications:

a. the silencb of individuals who previously proclaimed the use of violence to achieve power.

clandestine meetings BY PARTY members -- ALTHOUGHthat leftist leaders have attended these meetings.

to strict secrecy and the success ofrano op the socialist party (ps) and op the hip. to avoid

largb cache of weapons still held by leftist groups.

propaganda calling for preparations to overthrow

Bjfl lbm estimates the current membership of leftist parties to be as follows: nitary popular action movementhristian left (ic)

hatercent of the population supports the junta. while the remainingercent may not be totally opposed to the regime, many individuals have experifnced economic hardships,

HAVEAMILY MEMBER ARRESTED, HAVE LOST THEIR JOBS OR HAVE SIMPLY BEEN INDIFFERENT. LEFTIST SUPPORT WILL BE FOUND IN THAT SECTOR. LOWER INCOME GROUPS, IN PARTICULAR, ARE SUSCE'.TIBLE TO SUBVERSION AND, IN THE VIEWERE REATER TENDENCY TO SUPPORT THE LEFTIST MOVEMENT BECAUSE OF INDOCTRINATION CARRIEO OUT BY THE FORMER POPULAR UNITYOVERNMENT.

OF NEW LEFTIST SYMPATHIZERS HAS BEEN DETECTF

1.5

IN THE UNIVERSITIES AND AMONG SOME MEMBERS OF THE CHRISTIAN(PDC). ALTHOUGH THE CASE AGAINST THE PDC HAS NOT BEENIS LOGICAL TOMEMBERS OF THIS

PARTY HAVE BEEN RECRUITED. MgMJMJgg^ THAT LEFTISTS ALSO PLANWITHIN THB CATHOLIC CHURCH. THE INVESTIGATION HASLEVELS OF NEW RECRUITS: ACTIVISTS, AGITATORS AND SUPPORTHAVE BEEN RECRUITED MAINLY BY CARLOS ALTAMIRANO, PSBY MIGUELND HIS FOLLOWERS IN THE MIR. THESEINTEND TO REGROUP FORCES AND ESTABLISH POSITIVE CONTROLBY LATE DECBMBBR

THE THREB YEARS OF. GOVERNMENT, ALL TYPESARMS WERE BROUGHT INTO THE COUNTRY. IN ADDITION,

, SEA!

INSTRUCTION HAS GIVEN IN THE FABRICATION OF WEAPONS.

B THE MILITARY ESTIMATES THAT IT HAS CAPTUREDPERCENT OF ALL ARMS HELD BY THE MILITANT LEFT. MOST OFWEAPONS ARE REPORTED TO BE IN THE SANTIAGOHAT SUBVERSIVES WILL RECEIVE MASSIVE AM

SUPPLIES BY LAND THROUGH THE MOUNTAIN AREAS ANDESSER BXYlL BY SEA. GUERRILLAS IN OTHER COUNTRIES, PARTICULARLY ARGENTINA, Whi HAD RECEIVED SUPPORT FROM. WILL NOW HELP THEIR COUNTERPAki IN CHILE. THE INTERNATIONAL COMMUNIST MOVEMENT WILL ALSOTRONG EFFORT TO PROVIDE SUPPORT. INTERNATIONAL ORGANIZATIONS AND GROUPS, INCLUDING CHILEANS, HAVE FORMED COMMITTEES TO COLLECT FUNDJ FOR PURCHASING ARMS IN THB UNITED STATES, ARGENTINA, ITALY AND OTHE.'

COUNTRIES. MHbHHbIVVrVSTABLISHED FACT THAT SOCIALIST COUNTRIES WILL PROVIDE SUPPORT. IT IS ANTICIPATED THAT MERCHANT SHIPS WILL BE USED FOR BRINGING SUPPLIES AND EVEN THE USB OF SOVIET SUBMARINES CANNOT BE DISCOUNTED.

7.INVOLVES

TYPES OF ACTIVITIESURBAN ACTION, RURAL ACTION, AND PROPAGANDA. SANTIAGO IS THE MOST LIKELY AREA FOR URBAN ACTION BECAUSE OF SUCH

. SECRET

FACTORS AS POPULATION DENSITY, THE GEOGRAPHIC AREA ITTHE CURRENT VOGUE FOR URBAN GUERRILLA TACTICS. VALPARAISOBELIEVED TOARGET FOR INTERMITTENT GUERRILLAOF THE RELATIVELY FREE ACTIVITY IN THE UNIVERSITYTHE EFFECTARGE INFLUX OF ARGENTINE TOURISTS DURINGSEASOH. CONCEPCION AND ANTOFAGASTA ARE LESS LIXELYGUERRILLA ACTION. THE STRICT MILITARY .CONTROL IN CONCEPCIONFORCE GUERRILLAS TO OPERATE IN RURAL AREAS. URBANANTOFAGASTA WOULD MOST LIKELY BE PARTATIONAL PLAN OFAND THE LEFT COULD PROBABLY RELY ON SUPPORT FROM THE AREA FROM BIO-BIO TO THE CHACAO CANAL WOULDBE THE CENTER OP RURAL GUERRILLA ACTIVITY. ALTHOUGHON FROM THE CENTRAL VALLEY TO BIO-BIO PROVINCE HAS AAND GOOD FOOD SUPPLIES, NO LARGE-SCALE ACTIVITY ISBE UNDERTAKEN

" THE LEFTIST PROPAGANDA CAMPAIGN AS CONSISTINGUMBER OF ACTIVITIES. WORLD-WIDE PRESS PROPAGANDA HAS LITTLE EFFECT ON CHILEAN PEOPLE BUT FOREIGN RADIO BROADCASTS WHICH CAN BE HEARD IN CHILE COULD GIVE INCENTIVE TO THE SUBVERSIVES.

PAMPHLETS AND FLYSHEETS WHICH CALL UPON THE PEOPLE TO SEEKTHE ABNORMAL SITUATION ARE BEING CIRCULATED. SLOGANS HAVEINSCRIBED ON MONETARY NOTES. LETTERS, PARTICULARLYHAVE CALLED UPON THE PEOPLE TO OVERTHROW THERUMORS HAVE ALSO BEEN CIRCULATED IN URBAN AREAS BYTELEVISION REMAINS UNDER GOVERN

MENT CONTROL WITHATHER THAN

9. THREE RECOMMENDATIONS WERE MADE FOR MEETING THE LEFTIST THREAT:

EFFORTS SHOULD BESANTIAGO SINCE IT WILL BB THE MOST CRITICAL URBAN ZONE.

CONTROL SHOULD BE EXERTED ONON VEHICULAR TRAFFIC IN THE BIO-BIO TO CHACAO CANAL AREA.

BORDER-CROSSING POINTS SHOULD BBRAPID. COMMUNICATIONS SHOULD BE ESTABLISHED WITH THE MINISTRYIN ORDER TO CONTROL FOREIGN INFILTRATION DURING THE NAMES OF PERSONS IN TRANSIT SHOULD BE CHECKED WITHSERVICES.

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estimated that hostilities could

begin in late colonels julio , director op army intelligence, and german campos, chief of carabinero intelligence, disagreed kith this warning and argued that no hostile action mill begin until4 /jBBBBBBB^RESOLVV this disagreement by explaining that the extreme left would initiate exploratory actions in december in order to assess the reactionapability op the armed forces. more organized and selected

probably begin in march or

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