(ESTIMATED PUB DATE) (TITLED DELETED) RE: ANGOLA FOLLOWING THE COUP

Created: 1/1/1975

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

0

LIBERATION OF ANGOLA WEREE. LEASE ON LIFE BY THE COUP IN LISBON LAST PRIOR TO THE (OUP. THE FRONT'S fllLITARY EFFORT HAD BEEN SERIOUSLY STALLED FOR SEVERAL YEARS AND ROBERTO HADIRTUAL RECLUSE IN KINSHASA* ZAIRE* EXISTING ONFROH PRESIDENT HOBUTU- ROBERTO HAS NOT YET APPEARED IN ANGOLA.V

FOLLOWING THE OUTBREAK OF INSURGENCY IN Hlbl* THE NATIONAL FRONT flUICKLY BECAME THE FRONT RUNNING ANGOLAN INSURGENT ORGANIZATION. OPERATING IN THE NORTHUESTERN PART OF THE TERRITORY NOT FAR FROH LUANDA* THE CAPITAL* IT BORE THE BRUNT OF PORTUGUESE COUNTERINSURGENCY EFFORTS AND BY THES HAD LOST nuCH OF ITS nOflENTUfl- FIEANUHILEAGOSTINHO NETO'S RIVAL POPULAR nOVEnENT FOR THE LIBERATION OF ANGOLA HAS MAKING SIGNIFICANT GAINS IN EASTERN ANGOLA-V

THE NATIONAL FRONT HAS BEEN HELD BACK BY ITS PRACTICE OF RECRUITING flAINLY FROH REFUGEES IN ZAIRE

MHi unrt:

tXT:

outgoing message

.1

D mmtm

mm

tXUO it;

TO THERIBAL GROUP OF NORTHERN ANGOLA RATHER THAN FROH MITHIN ANGOLA. ROBERTO'S REFUSAL TO BROADEN HIS SUPPORT BASE PROMPTED HIS FOREIGN MINISTER JONAS SAVIMBI* TO LEAVE THE NATIONAL FRONTLL AND EVENTUALLY ESTABLISH HIIS OWN ORGANIZATION* THE NATIONAL UNION FOR THE TOTAL INDEPENDENCE OF ANGOLA. OBERTO'S GROUP MUST SHARE THE LEADERSHIP OF THE TRANSITIONAL GOVERNMENT MITH THE TWO OTHER NATIONALIST ORGANIZATIONS.*

ROBERTO HAS HAD CLOSER TIES MITH ZAIRE OVER THE YEARS THAN UITH ANGOLA AND REPORTEDLY SPEAKS BETTER FRENCH THAN HE DOES PROTUGUESE- HE IS CLOSE TO ZAIRIAN PRESIDENT MOBUTU* BUT MOBUTU'S SUPPORT HAS BEEN LIMITED* INITIALLY BECAUSE OF THE ZAIRIAN LEADER'S PREOCCUPATION MITH SECURING HIS OMN POMER AND LATER BY HIS DESIRE NOT TO PROVOKE THE PORTUGUESE INTO DENYING KINSHASA ACCESS TOFACILITIES THROUGH ANGvL* THAT ARE NECES-

IfflTt

SARY FOR ZAIRE'S COPPER EXPORTS- NEVERTHELESS* RODERTO'S RELIANCE ON MOBUTU PUT HIM OUT OF FAVOR WITH THE AFRICAN AND COMMUNIST STATES THAT PROVIDED THE BULK OF ASSISTANCE TO THE INSURGENTS IN PORTUGAL'S AFRICAN TERRITORIES. MOREOVER*1 THE ORGANIZATION OF AFRICAN UNITY WITHDREW ITS MATERIAL SUPPORT, ALTHOUGH THE OAU CONTINUED TO RECOGNIZE ROBERTO'S GROUPIBERATION MOVEMENT.V

BY THE TIME OF THE COUP,HE NATIONAL FRONT'S FORTUNES WERE BEGINNING TO IMPROVE. WITH ENCOURAGEMENT FROM MOBUTU* WHO WAS ATTEMPTING TO IMPROVE HIS CREDENTIALS AS AN AFRICAN NATIONALIST AND DEVELOP ZAIRE'S RELATIONS WITH CHINA, ROBERTO VISITED PEKINC INN ANDLEDGE OF MILITARY ASSISTANCE. MOBUTU INCREASED HIS ASSISTANCE TO THE FRONT. ESPECIALLY IN LOGISTICAL SUPPORT AND TRAINING.V

BECAUSE OF THIS SUPPORT* THE NATIONAL FRONT

RATI iuna i

an

OUTGOING MESSAGE

*

0 MM

WAS ABLE TO HOVE TROOPS flUICKLY INTO ANGOLA, PARTICULARLY LUANDA, FOLLOWING AN AGREEnENT LAST FALL BETWEEN THE INSURGENT GROUPS AND THE PORTUGUESE THAT ALLOWED THE NATIONALISTS TO ESTABLISH OFFICES IN THE TERRITORY IN EXCHANGEUSPENSION OF HOSTILITIES. TO DATE, THE FRONT HAS BEEN THE HOST EFFECTIVE OF THE THREE GROUPS IN ESTABLISHING ITS PRESENCE IN NORTHERN ANGOLA, LARGELY BECAUSE OF ITS STRONG TRIBAL TIES THERE.V

SINCE ENDING ITS GUERRILLA OPERATIONS, THE NATIONAL FRONT HASAU AND ORDER" ROLE IN LUANDA AND NORTHERN ANGOLA. IN RECENT flONTHS IT HAS BEEN ABLE TO CAPITALIZE ON THAT WAGE AND WIN SUPPORTAflONG SOHE WHITES IN RURAL AREAS OF NORTHERNEGION LONG PLAGUED BY BIANDITRYIGH CRIHE RATE. ON NUflTROUS OCCASIONS IT HAS USED ITSAND ORDER" POSTURE TO HARASS ITS HAJOR OPPONENT",

OMlin i

ml:

't*

$

THE POPULAR MOVEMENT. RGANIZATION CONTROLS THE AGRICULTURE, INTERIOR, AND HEALTH AND SOCIAL AFFAIRS PORTFOLIOS IN THE TRANSITIONALAND CLEARLY INTENDS TO USE THESE TO ITS ADVANTAGE. THE FRONT HAS AMBITIOUS PLANS FOR REPARTIATING PERHAPS AS MANYRO-FRONT REFUGEES CURRENTLY LIVING IN ZAIRE IN TIME FOR THEM TO VOTE IN THE CONSTITUENT ASSEMBLY ELECTIONS THAT ARE SCHEDULED TOELD SOMETIME BEFORE INDEPENDENCE NEXT NOVEMBER.Y

MEANWHILE, THE NATIONAL FRONT MAY BE STRENGTHENED BY THE EARLY ADHERENCE OF DANIEL CHIFENDA, THE FORMER VICE PRESIDENT OF THE POPULAR MOVEMENT WHO SPLIT WITH NETO CHIPENDA CONTROLSELL-TRAINED TROOPS IN EASTERN SINCE HIS BREAK WITH NETO HE HAS OBTAINED MODEST SUPPORT FROM ROBERTO AND MOBUTU AND HE MAY NOW BE ON THE VERGE OF JOINING THE NATIONAL FRONT.Y

THE NATIONAL FRONT IS OPERATING UNDER CERTAIN '

i

Ti

OUTGOING MESSAGE

* I 4

" i

DISADVANTAGES, HOWEVER!. IT HAS LESS SUPPORT INDOES THE POPULAR MOVEMENT OR EVEN THEIT HAS VIRTUALLY NO FOLLOWING SOUTH OFAREA THAT INCLUDES ABOUT THREE-FOURTHS OF THETHE FRONT IS NOT LIKELY TO GAINSUPPORT FROM WHITES IN THE NEAR FUTURE. RIVALS, THE FRONT HAS NEVER SOUGHT TO ATTRACTRACIAL BASE OF ESULT, ITTAGGEDACIST IMAGE THAT WILL BEi .

THE FRONT'S CLOSE RELIIATIONS WITH MOBUTUOLITICAL LIABILITY FOR ROBERTO IN COMPETING WITH THE OTHERGROUPS - THE LATTER ACCUSE THE FRONT OFF MOBUTU, WHO, THEY SUGGEST, HASDESIGNS ON ANGOLA, PARTICULARLY THEEXCLAVE OF CABINDA. THE ROBERTO-MOBUTUIS VIEWED WITH PARTICULAR SUSPICION BY

OAT1;

MNh

T i

I

outgoing message

0

. in

IDEOLOGICAL AND PERSONAL DIFFERENCES BETWEEN ROBERTO ANB NETO APPEAR IRRECONCILABLE AT PRESENT. THEIR ORGANIZATIONS ARE LIKELY TO CLASH MORE THAN ONCE DURING THE POLITICAL CAMPAIGNING AHEAD AS THE FRONT CAMPAIGNS IN URBAN AREAS AND THE POPULAR MOVEMENT SEEKS TO EXPAND INTO THE AJOR EFFORT ON THE PART OF BOTH MEN WILL BE REWIRED TO AVERT OPEN WARFARE BETWEEN THE TWO GROUPS

Original document.

---

---