The overall demotions forltils document are Ibid) and
mn
3Jj' Center
Caribbean:,
Sources of Illegal Migration
RFFFDVED FOR REIUSE
Cuiififeniial
The Caribbean: Sources of Illegal Migration
Centre! Inlrlhgemr Agency Setumel Foreign Aiitnmem Cenlfr
8
Key
The English-speaking Caribbean countrieshole supplyercent of all illegals from the region. About one-half ofrom Jamaica. The other major English-speaking countries in order ofas source areas are Trinidad and To* bago. Guyana, and Barbados. The Dominican Republic is the largest single source of illegal migrants, supplying about one-third of the total. Creole-speaking Haiti is in fourth place. The French islands and the Dutch-speaking nations of the region are unimportant as sources of illegal migration to the United Slates.
Migration has longay of life in' the densely populated islands of Ihe EnglishCaribbean, and. unlike Ih'e Mexican migrant, nationals from the area show little attachment lo their homeland. Such migration is necessary to keep the islands from being hopelesslyand is tacitly supported by most of the governments. Traditionally, most migrationthe region has been to the United Kingdom; however, in thefter the Britishchanged its immigration laws to keep out most Commonwealth nationals, the flow was diverted to the United Slates and Canada.much of this migration was legal, it was at this time that large-scale illegal migration from the English-speaking Caribbean began.
The Dominican illegalharpto the migrant from the English-speaking Caribbean. Illegals from the Dominican, Republic tend to be less educated andan those from any other major source area within or outside Ihe Caribbean, and almost half are from rural areas.
The Haitian Illegalhird type. Despite Haiti's extreme poverty, the Haitian migrant is often more prosperous than either his Dominican or British West Indian counterpart. Indeed, only the relatively affluent Haitian can afford the costs of obtaining exit papers and transportation. The typical Haitian illegalelatively well-educated urbanite whooliticalfor leaving his country.
Most Caribbean illegals enter this country with documentation; for obvious reasons there is very little surreptitious border crossing of the Mexican type. Most frequently, the Caribbean migrantegal nonresident visa, which heabuses. In other cases, he uses forged papers or papers obtained under false pretenses. Some English-speaking illegals use the US Virgin Islandsay station to (be continental United States. Many Dominicans go first to Puerto Rico, where they have little difficulty passing forand obtaining work. Some, after several months or years in Puerto Rico, feel financially secure enough to make the jump to New York. Many illegals, of course, remain permanently in Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands.
We believe that the flow of Caribbean illegals to the United States will increase over the next decade. Many in thege bulge that emerged inre now entering the migration-prone age group betweenased on demographic and economic trends, we expect that the Dominican Republic. Jamaica.
and Haiti will become more important as source countries and that the flow from Guyana will remain at its current high level. Only in Barbados and,uch lesser extent, in Trinidad and Tobago arc there any prospectsecline in the illegal outflow.
Paradoxically, an acceleration in economicthis is unlikely during the nextonly encourage illegal migration by increasing tbe number of people with the financial wherewithal to leave: the same may be said of political liberalization. Repressive past dictatorships in Haiti and the Dominicanwere able to retain many dissatisfied nationals by making any attempt to leave extremelyrelaxation was followedaveigration. Although Manley's Jamaica is not to be compared to Trufillo's Dominican Republic or Papa Doc Duvalier's Haiti, political andregulations now in force are undoubtedly working to limit migralion at the same time they increase the desire to migrate
The Caribbean: Soun
Inrraduclion
The perennially depressed Caribbeanhe second-largest source of illegal migrants to the United States, is steadily growing inAlthough in an average year the area supplies only about one-slith as many illegals as does Mexico, the Caribbean illegal is much more likely to remain permanently in the United States. He Is also more likely to eventually bring in other family members Given the age structure in the Caribbean islands, the economic andal insecurity that plagues many of the nations, and the large growing gap between US and Caribbean wage rates, the problem can only get worse.
We estimate thatllegalfrom the Caribbean have entered the United States annually ln recent years.0 illegals probably enter Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands annually. Although most illegals in Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands remain there, an increasingly large minority are using these US territoriesay station lo the continental United States. At any one time, nearlyercent ofillionillion illegal migrants of all nationalitiesin the .United .States are of Caribbean origin1
. The Dynamics of tho Caribbean Migration
Large-scale Caribbean migration to the Unitedora relatively recent phenomenon. Until tbef Illegal Migration
nial relationships and cultural ties directedfrom most islands lo the United Kingdom, the Netherlands, and France Except for afew political refugees and seasonal farm workers, emigration was minimal from Haiti and rite Dominican Republic, both economically backward and repressive dictatorships There is,ongstanding tradition of internal migration within and among the islands. Such migration accelerated after World
Intarnol Migration
During most ol the postwar period ihe largest single migration pattern was from rural to urban areas. The chief attraction was the economic Opportunity in the rapidly expanding tourism, oil. and light manufacturing sectors, where average wages exceeded rural payercent or more. The percentage of the Caribbeanliving in urban areas has almost doubled in the pastears to at leastercent, reaching an estimatedillion people8 Even this figure seriously understates the number of Caribbean residents who have acquired an urban life-style, since the suburbs of many cities and resort areas in the smaller islands are noturban areas In official statistics
In addition to these internal'movements,migration among the various islands has always existed. Besides the traditional seasonal migration of agriculturalfrom Haiti to the Dominicanflow of urban workers from the poorer to the richer islands within the English-speaking Caribbean area increased sharply duringrban areas in the Bahamas. Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago received most of this flow, while the major sending states were Cuyana. Grenada. St Li:cu. and Si Vincent. Altogether, interisland movements have involved the shift ofersons over ihe pastears.
External Migration
In thehe legal flow from the English-speaking Caribbean to the United Kingdom was the most important pattern of external migration. At its peak in the. this movement00 persons annually-equal toercent of the total labor force of the English-speaking Caribbean. The legal flow to theersons annually in theto pick up in thend0 persons annually. Most of the immigrants to the United States were Dominican, Haitian, and Jamaican political dissidents or jobseekers;ew migrants came from other parts of the Caribbean. Smaller numbers migratedto Canada. France, andersons annually during this period. In contrast to the internal pattern, the lion's share of those leaving the region were artisans,professionals, and others not directly engaged in agriculture.
Beginning in the, changes inlaws shifted the pattern of legal migration away from the United Kingdom toward the United States and Canada (seehile tighter British controls have cut the (low to the United Kingdom to lesshis decline has been offset by the annual movement of0 legal migrants to the United States and Canada. Altogether legal out-migration has0 personsin recent years, roughly the same level as in the.
The Illegal Migrant
Illegal migration from the Caribbean to the United States, now atear, substantially exceeds legal migration and. together with legal migration, offsets as much as one-half of the yearly growth in the region's labor force. The increase in illegal migration to the United States ineflected the limits Imposed on legal outlets as well as changes in the political situation in the Dominican Republic that made migration easier.owever, the increase in legal migration to the United States had offset much of the decrease in the legal movement lo the United Kingdom. Thus, the illegal flow is in additionthant lie legal flow.
Illegal migration to the United Stales isby several factors, in particular, Caribbean nationals have relatively easy access to Puerto Rico and the US Virgin Islands, which frequently serve as way stations for the illegal migrant going to the continental United States. Moreover, the illegal migrant finds material and psychological support among legal and illegal residents from his own country in the United States.
Tobl* 1
US and Caribbean Wogsi
US
US dairy earalngi
"Wattl
household workcei
dally minimum wign
Republic
9
ciaica
and Tobago
Caribbean countries
dairy minimum
Republic
4
0
and Tobago
Caribbean wuMtie*
As shown in (ableagethe United States and the CaribbeanEven in high-wage CaribbeanJamaica, the average urban minimumonlyercent of the US average wagehousehold workers,ercent of (hatworkers, and roughlyercent ofmanufacturing workers and craftsmen.wage gaptrong attraction,factor is the limited opportunity foreconomic mobility at home. Evenprofessionals on the mostCaribbean islands find their economicseverelythese circumstances. It is surprisingmore Caribbean nationals are notfactors militate against this, however.costs of pulling up roots andculture and language are important,for rural Haitians. These costs are notfor Dominicans, who generally migratesimilar Puerto Rico, or for mostmigrants, who speak English andlong tradition of external migration.
Of even greater importance Is the financial coat of migration. In contrast to the illegal from central Mexico, who00 forand smuggling fees, the Haitian pays atncluding official documents and air fare. Moreover, bribes to circumvent longdelays can add considerably to these costs US rules add to the cost of obtaining nonresident visas. The migrant, for example, mustound-trip ticket, which costs more0 between most islands and the US mainland. He must also prove self-sufficiency, evidenced by funds in the bank and/or the ownership of property. These financial costs effectively limitorthe relativelyCaribbean national
sources of illegal migration
litabout
one-third of the illegal migrants from thearea. Jamaica is in second place with aboutercent, followed by Trinidad and Tobago, Haiti, Guyana, and Barbados (seehe smaller British Islands are believed to contribute illegal migrants in rough proportion to their population. The English-speaking Caribbeanhole suppliesercent of all Caribbeanor0 persons annually.
Evidence indicates that Belize, the Cayman Islands, and the Dutch and French islands of the West Indies supply relatively few illegals to the United States. There appears to be some illegal movement from the Dutch islands of Curacao and Aruba to Venezuela and from Belize to Mexico. Tbe few illegals in the United States from the Dutch and French islands as well as from the Cayman Islands are believed to be, seamen who jump ship in US ports.
economic characteristic!
The major sendingDominican Republic, Jamaica, Trinidad and Tobago, andupercent of the totalpopulation (seehey differin terms of economic and socialwith Trinidad and Tobago and Jamaica the most advanced and Haiti the least. Annual per capita income in Trinidad and Tobago, foriseflecting tbe influence of the oil industry (seeimilarly, bauxite
^
Figure 2
Caribbean: Estimated Illegal Migration to the United7
manufacturing have helped boost per capita income in Jamaica to more thanIn contrast, per capita income is0 tn the Dominican Republic0 in Haiti. Thb. in part, reflects the fact that these two economies are based on agriculture.
Despite large-scale emigration, the major economies have been unable to absorb labor supply growth (seehis is particularly true of the rural sector, even though in most countries agriculture remains heavily laborIn Guyana and the Dominican Republic, where commercial agricultural growth has been the highest, output gains have been associated more with increased productivity ihan increased employment :Haiti. on the other hand, lags well behind other source countries in developingfarming; the growth of its ruralsubstantially outpaces the creation of new jobs.esult, output per agricultural worker is far below the Caribbean average, andare slow in coming.
Growth outside tbe farm sector has generated some new jobs, but not many. In Jamaica, only0 new jobs were created outside the agricultural sector0 andgainpercent increase in the nonagricultural labor force.esult, urban unemployment surged well aboveercent of the urban labor force, approaching
opulation '
AvengeAnnual
January CrowthRate
Persons
Republic
h
d and Tobago
Wert Indies*
Associated States*
Antilles
1
'
^'
*
1,5
Population datare from Caribbean censuses.8rom the OS Bureau of the Census.
on us Bureau of the Census estimate
and Martinique.
Antigua. Dominica. St Christopher-Nevis -AaguUIa. St Lucia, and St Vincent
Caribbean Selectednd Social Indicator*
BarbarOoa ubtic Tobafo Countries
Person*
Population per square
Per capita Income.
v*Jue added per agricultural
worker,
litdustriaJ wages.
Percent
Industrial 16 12 31 7 12
0 4* 40 32 21 41
Literacy to
1 Caribbean islands only
Average weekly remuneraikn In manufacturing and mining including waees and fringeanufacturing and raininghare of total employment
Bridgetown only. Suburbs and other town* make actual urbanitation higher
' Three largest cities only. Suburbs and other towns male actual urbanisation higher.
FOR RELUSE DATL0
Figure 3
Caribbean Major Source Countries: Population, Labor Force, and Employment
Millioni
20
15
Iron
-
percent among Jamaican youth; overallprobably reachedercent,and Tobago did not do much better because of the capital-Intensive nature of its oil sector.
The manufacturing sectors of all the Caribbean nations are so small that even rapid growth creates relatively few employment opportunities. In the Dominicanmost successful country inew jobs have been generated annually In thesector0 This is sufficient to absorb less than one-fourth of the growth in the urban work force, and aboutercent of the urban
UPPPOVID FOR RELEASE DATL0
TUMPIBriPlI IIIL_
TPl
force is unemployed. Throughout thegrowth of employment in the important service sector has stagnatedargely because of the failure of tourism and related construction to rebound fully from the US recession.
High rates of female participation In the labor force have aggravated employment problems in the major source countries. In Jamaica, women now hold almost one-half of the jobs outside agriculture, including aboutercent of the jobs in industry. This pattern is fairly typical throughout the English-speaking Caribbean, where easy access to academic trainingfemale participation. The combination of work and school experience helps explain the relatively high proportion of female illegalfrom Jamaica and other English-speaking countries. Last year, women made up perhapsercent of all illegal migrants coming from the Caribbean.
Demographic
Caribbean areas that generate the majority of illegal aliensumber of demographic characteristics in common
In particular, urban population growth0 has beenrapid, averaging moreercentIn addition, the age distribution of their populations (including the urban maleis, those most likely to emigrate to the United States) is heavily concentrated in the younger ages. As may be seen in table5 percent of the region'$ population0 was below the age ofthe same as inhe.population was somewhat younger than the norm in the Dominican Republic,and Guyana. By contrast, onlyercent of Barbados' population was below the agehe result of the islands long history of family-planning and especially heavy emigration of women of childbearing age.
Because of heavy emigration, the population of the Caribbean region is growing considerably less rapidly than that of Latin Americahole. Population growth in the Caribbean averagedercent annually0ercent for Latin Americahole. During this period the outflow of legal and illegal migrants offset aboutercent of the natural increase in the region's total(seen other words, withoutthe population growth rate of the Caribbean region would have beenercent.actually halved the natural increase in the English-speaking countries and exceeded or matched the natural increases on Barbadosew smaller islands.
Population growth for the Dominican Republic is near the top of the Caribbeanpercent annually during. Basically, this reflects exceptionally high Dominican birth rates and the relatively limited scope of legalIn Haiti, high mortality and some migration to nearby countries held population growth
Caribbean Natural Population Increase1 and Net
Thousand
915
. :
t.
V-*1
&Hr.ln'can Guyana Ha* Jamaica Trinidad and . .
annually during this period. In contrast to most other Caribbean countries, where the absolute numbervof rural residents has fallen since the, the rural population of the Dominican Republic and Haiti has continued to grow despite the exodus to urban areas.
Government Policies
Caribbean governments have generallythe issue of illegal migration. Even in those cases where officials have voiced concern over the departure of professional and other skilled workers, little has been done to curb theirAlthough most countries have some famlK planning, these efforts are fairly recent and too small to have much effect on urban population growth for some time. As for economicpolicies, spending programs generally aim at helping those with the leastare also the least likely to migrate. This approach stems from both humanitarian considerations and from the desire to maintain political stability in the English-speaking Caribbean in the face of mounting violence.
Developmant Policial
Government development policies, to thethat they have been effective, may have worsened the migration problem. Migrants tend to be relatively well-educated, skilled workers
with enough savings or credit to meet thecosts of migration. Successfulincreases the size of the group with these characteristics.
Most of the region's development plans are misnamed, however, in that they are designed to absorb unskilled labor for political reasons rather than to spur economic development. By and large, rural-to-urban migration is accepted as inevitable, and government programs are aimed at providing low-level jobs in urban areas Only Guyana and the Dominican Republic havethe funds needed to spur agriculturalthe resulting increase in productivity was accompanied by an exodus of rural workers to the cities. The urban-centered programs-have generally failed to .provide more than short-term employment, usually in construction.'
Faced with serious budget constraints, even such advanced countries as Trinidad and Tobago emphasize short-term employment Development spending focuses on public works projectsto absorb the growing number of unskilled entrants to the labor force. The problem of fostering adequate permanent employment to retain skilled workers is compounded to some extent by industrial Incentive schemes that place high priority on capital-intensive production. In general, the number of workers in manufacturing has increased much more slowly thanoutput.
Economic development programs have been even less successful in the smaller countries. Hampered by small markets, local production cannot match the economies of scale of the large/ Caribbean islands and is thus costlier. Militant unions in Barbados, Guyana, and other English-speaking countries have compounded theseby boosting wagesnot sharply enough to lessen the incentive forMoreover, many of these countries have failed to adjust their currencies to competeIn the world markets and have established nationalistic policies that discourageesult, employment in thesectors of these nations has shown little or no growth in Ihe pastears. Nascent regional
efforts to overcome these obstacles remainby political rivalries.
Family Planning
Only Barbados, Jamaica, and Trinidad and Tobago are actively supporting large birthprograms, although the Dominican Republic and Haiti, under pressure from aid donors, have recently initiated modest programs. Elsewhere in the Caribbean, government responses range from grudgingly allowing the operation of private programs to complete disapproval in Cuyana and Belize, the only countries with low population densities.
Despite increasing focus on the problem,planning programs are unlikely to affect the outflow of migrants for many years. Much of the Impact of past programs has been In rural areas of the English-speakingmajor sources of illegal migrants. Although birth rates have steadily declined in most of these countries over the past decade, highly successfulefforts to reduce infant mortality have kept population growth rates from decliningThe recent, modestly fundedcontrol efforts in the Dominican Republic and Haiti, although concentrated in urban areas, are expected to have little immediate impact on urban population expansion.
Migration Polkioi
Tacit support of the traditional urge tohas generally been the governments' main response to the problem of population growth. This approach has its drawbacks, however, since mostly skilled workers take advantage of liberal Caribbean emigration policies. Only Haiti has tried to deal directly with this problem byemigration of professional and other skilled workers; the effort was at least partially circumvented through influence and bribery. In response to lower immigrationin the United Kingdomlowdown of economic activity atumber ofthe Bahamas. Cuyana. and the Dominicanset up legal barriers to immigration within the region during the lastears.
Development Potential
All of the Carrtbbeanthat of Trinidad andserious constraints on economic development in thefuture. Although the region's population equals that of Peru, the fifth most populated country in Latin America, fragmented Vocaland high transport costs make Caribbean economic development uniquely dependent on regional cooperation. The outlook for meaningful cooperation even among the English-speaking Islands is dim. however.
Oemmican Republic end Haiti
Although for the past decade the industrial sector has been the engine of growth In (he Dominican Republic and Haiti, it rernains too small to absorb much of the surplus of urban labor. Industrial employment engages onlyercent of the Dominican labor forceerceni of the Haitian labor forcehortage of reliable energy sources, continuing import restrictions, and more restrictivepolicies are hampering industrial expansion in the Dominican Republic The future of Haiti's fledgling labor-intensive manufacturing sector will depend on the country's ability to hold down wages,ider wage gap between Haiti and the United States will increase the motivation for migration.
Development of the agriculturalfor feeding the growinglimitedhortage of managerial and technical expertise and cultivable land. Nevertheless, some gains in the Dominican commercial farminghave been achieved. Haiti, with the highest population density on cultivated land In Latin America, faces much more difficult development problems.
Jamaica and Tnmdod and Tetsoee
Public spending by Jamaica and Trinidad and Tobago in nonagrlcultural sectors has led to fairly diversified economies. Even so. theirpotential is very different Havingthe sharpest consecutive declines in economic output of any less developed countryamaica will be luckv to make up lost ground, let alone achieve additional growth in the near future Although the need to restore economic balance has stemmed theeftward drift, foreign investors remain cautious. In contrast. Trinidad andtheonly known oil and gasao oil-based economic boom that is spreading to other sectors
Since capital-intensive industries will supply mufl of the growth in both economies, new jobs almost certainly will lag behind increases in the labor force Continued depression in thesector, especially in Jamaica, will only add to the strain on urban absorptive capacity. New industries hold much more promise of containing high unemployment in Trinidad andhan in Jamaica Unlike those in Jamaica, skilled workers in Trinidad and Tobago should have tittle difficulty finding high-paying jobs.
Other Gsribbeori Countries
Development prospects elsewhere in theare generally bleak. Overvalued currencies, lack of infrastructure, and small internal markets will continue to prevent the creation of many new jobs over the nextean. Alreadyfrom lop-heavy bureaucracies, governments will be unable to add many public service jobs to counter stagnation in the private sector.the prospect of gradual British withdrawal from the region may well result not only in reduced budget assistance but also in increased political instability
Danger Points
Wc expect thai the flow of Caribbean illegals to thr United States will increase over the next decade The character of this migration will remain basically unchanged as the Caribbean area becomes more urbanized and continuing sluggish economic performance limitsopportunities Even ihe relatively wellwill have difficulty finding high-paving jobs to match their skills despite the heavy exodus of workers in this group Although ruralis likely lo increase over the next
decade, few agricultural worker* will have the necessary funds to move to the United States. Since Canada and the United Kingdom will probably maintain their immigration controls, only the most skilled workers will gain entry to these countries-Many In thege bulge that emerged inre now entering theoge group. Their numbers alone will almost certainly result in increased illegal migration to the United Slates over the nextears. Even if family planning programs reduce fertility rates as expected, the largeof those already bom will sustain migration.
level. Only Barbados and,uch lesser extent, Trinidad and Tobago show any prospectsecline in the illegal outflow. Demographicalso indicate that the Bahamas willarger source of Caribbean illegals than in the past, because of the Bahamas smallhowever, the absolute increase inillegals will be modest.
Dim prospects for accelerated economicin the major source countries militate against any substantial change in ihe migration pattern. Ironically some economic improvement may well encourage illegal migration. Haitiase in point; increasing aid shouldodest rise in real urban incomes that will Increase the number of those with the financial wherewithal to leave. Only Trinidad and Tobago is likely to provide enough new fobs to greatly reduce the migration rate of its skilled workers. Much of the gain, however, would he offsel by increased departures of relatively affluentwith fewer skills.
rriMtirscMTi
APPENDIX A
Dominican Republic
Sharply reduced economic growth since thend athat has long focused on the United States and Puerto Rico makeRepublic the region's largest source of illegal migration loStates; about one-third of all Caribbean illegalsercent of0 Dominicans who annually emigrate toStates do so illegally. Most are ambitious urbanltes escapingThe sheer size of the agricultural work force, however, helps makethe only sizable source of Caribbean illegals from rural areas. Afterof rapid economic progress in the, theeconomic outlook has'dimmed in recent years. Higher oil import
costs, prolonged drought,harp drop in sugar prices have ledlowdown in job creationurge in illegal migration. The flow should continue to increase over the next decade because of the rapid growth in the pool of working-age people.
The Economylance
Sugar and other agricultural products are the mainstays of the Dominican economy, with the farm sector employing more than one-half of the labor force and accounting for one-fourth of gross domestic productgricultural processing dominates the manufacturing sector, whichanotherercent to national output. The manufacturinglargest in therapidly93 because of government incentives, such as reduced duties on imported capital and increased public outlays for basic infrastructure. The resulting shift to capital-intensive output has pushed worker productivity in manufacturing and mining to five times ihe level in agriculture. The country also made rapid strides In developing its varied mineral resources during the.
Coed agricultural performance initially cushioned much of the Impact ofPEC oil price hikes. Later ihe rising cost of imported oil, intermittent power blackouts, cuts in public spending brought on by declining revenues, and agricultural setbacks slowed industrial activity. Rather lhan opt for heavy foreign borrowing to spur economic growth, the Dominican Government chose to cut imports.esult, economic growth has more than halvedercent annuallyomparedearly average6 percent.
Population Patterns
Stepped-up emigration cut population growthercent annually duringercent0ven this reduced
DominicoR Republic
Population (thousand
Rural
Urban
Avnic- annual population growth (percent
It ban
Labor force (thousand persons) Agriculture
Manufacturing and mining
Service)
Dally -ages (OS S)
Urban minimum
Rural average _.
Annual per eapila income (US I) Cini coefficient "
Avenge annual real CDP growth.
mniic product (railaoo US I)
A
Man-si actunng and mining.
Services
Value added pet
Manufacturing
RealCO) Agncuttute .
Manufacturing and
Labor productivity.) Agriculture .
Manufacturing
MBR1
1
loeo
S!
7*
5
250
BJ
I960
141
370
172 .
115
166
ISO
5)
)J9SR)
18
i a
MS)
827 (Sift)
(or products Crop* sugarcane, coffee, cocoa, tobacco, rice, corn Manufacturing: foodstuffa. IntJlea. cement. beverago).
tobacco, furniture Mining: bauaMe. gold, nickel
Cultivated land (thousand
Cultivated hectare per agricultural worker
I960
2
0
The Cmin indicator of moon* dntiiWieta distribution become) more nearly equal, tbe value approachsi
ine fluctuate! between one and ftO- as the inccerM1
WPFOKD fOR RilEAStI
rate of growlh was among (he highest in the Caribbean. Much higher urban wagesarge flow of rural workers lo Santo Domingo and other urban areas; per capita urban incomes average about four limes the rural level. Theercent annual growth in urban population pushed the level of urbanizationnly lo Jamaica in the region. Withercent of the population underean of agehe number of Dominicans entering the migration-prone years will continue to rise al least5
The decline in population growth was reversed in the, risingerceni yearly, because rapid economic gains discouraged migration and encouraged procreationowever, massive emigration has reduced population growthercent. This drop stems from the worsened economic situation and increased emigration of women of child bearing age.family planning efforts initiated in theave yet to have much impact
Employmont and labo> Foroe
Rapid growth in the labor force swamped expanding employment opportunities0espite modest gains In commercial agriculture, few new jobs were created because of the exlrcmcly large stock of underemployedarge inflow of surplus agricultural workers pushed average annual growth of the nonagricultural labor forceercent during the period. Despite rapid industrial growth, the capital-intensive nature of moat new production facilities kept the expansion of nonagricultural fobsercent annually.esult, urban unemployment doubled to aboutercent The situation would be much worse except that traditional biases against female employment have kept female participation in the labor force the lowest in Latin America
Outlook
Illegal migration from the Dominican Republic will increase over the next decade. Slow growth in world sugar demand and increasing supplies ofsugar substitutes will limit agricultural performance. Efforts to diversify agriculture are hampered by Santo Domingo's inexperience in marketing other crops Industrial expansion is expected to remain well In-low former peak levels because the government is reluctant to borrow heavily on world capital markets to increase spending and boost consumer demand Given the bleak employment prospects, the Dominican Government will resist taking strong measures to deter illegal migration.
APPENDIX B
Jamaica
Jamaica ranks ai Ihe region's largest source of illegal migrants to the United States after the Dominican Republic. Large disparities between rural and urban incomes haveassive rural exodus and aggravated severe urban labor surpluses- Prior to independenceote ambitious urbanites took advantage of Jamaica's colonial status to emigrate legalK to the United kingdom Tight British controls since Independence and recent domestic economic problems haverowing flow ol urban workers to the United Stales and Canada. Roughlyercent of those Jamaicans who now migrate to the United States do sourge of entrants to Jamaica's crowded urban labor market should maintain (he heavyflow of illegals over the next decade.
Tho Ecenemy otClone*
During, foreign Investment spurred development of Jamaica's two most dynamic economic sectors, mining and tourism The island is the world's third-iargesi bauxite producer, and mining and processing the ore generateercent of total GDP withercent of the labor force Because of the heavy use of machinery, worker productivity Is eight limes higher than (he national average. Tourism0 jobs and5 percent of GDP. Rapid growth of tourism and mining as well a* protective trade policies facilitated expansionelatively broadly based manufacturing vector, now contributing more thanercent of GDP. By contrast, the island's decaying agricultural sector produces less thanercent of CDP while employingercent of the labor force.
Erosion of investor confidence induced by Jamaica's leftward driftise in -violent crime have caused real output to decline Ioercent of3 level.rime Minister Manley has sharply boosted bauxite taxes, nationalized much of the local bauxite mining operations, andtakeoversew key private firmsesult US aluminum producers have shifted to other bauxite suppliers, and domestic and foreign private capital is flowing out of the country'. Moreover,itiallv hurt by the US recession4 andto lag becauseighly publicized increase in violence directed at foreigners as well as stiffer competition from Western Europe.
Pepulotien Patterns
Heavy emigration shaved overall population growthercent annually0ow per capita income in rural areasrowing dlstasle for agricultural workercent
mnnrifiiiiTiii
Population (IhouM/uJ
Averagerowth {pereeor)
fturtl
t'flup
Labor forceritulhire
Mamifaefunng
Mining
es *Waverage
Annual per capita income (US
ClfU
A NA
0
A NA
1
an its*)
6
U6I0)
3T0 tf3*J
19T0
) LOGST)
751
i: -u
195 {mi
urn
$ 1
annual real CDP gro*tn Iperceait} Grosproduct (mtfJion US t:
rc
VaJue added per worker (US
Mitfi nf
*
)6 [WJ
0
0
CD? Under
i .r:
Mimag
S*rw4-* ,
Ubor pcodtj^xvity Und**0 -
rt'i
Major product*
pimrr.io
Manufacturing: foodttuffi. rum. Itgnt nunviaciuro Mining* bauMtte, alumina
m
200
133
Land jinouand hectares)
Cultivated hectare* per agricultural worker
TW Gir*n Indicator of mcome cWrtbuilooin button become* more nearlyibe valueo.
^ct-jktes txtween one andthe ino*ne
FOR RELEASE DATL1
annual decline in the rural population during the period. The flow from rural areas pushed urban population growth toercent yearly and nearly doubled Jamaica's urbanization rateighest in the region. Average annual population growth overall probably has picked upercent0 because of curbs in legal migration to traditional outletsmall decline in mortality.
The financial burden of supporting an increasingly younger population caused Kingston to accelerate family planning efforts in the. The National Family Planning Program was establishednd clinics began distributing contraceptivesncreased use of contraceptives helped cut the birth rate fromersons duringoersonshe decline in the birth rate should keep the share of Jamaica's population underears of age0 constant at0 level ofercent. The population bulge in the migration-prone years
Employment ond labor Fort*
The creation of new jobs lagged seriously0ushing unemployment fromercent toercent during this period. Although the massive outflow of working-age people helped hold average annual growth of the labor forceercent, urban job creation fell far short of absorbing the rural exodus.
Of greater importance from the point of view of migration, most of the new employment opportunites were low-paying public works jobs. Despite increased public investment, the large construction seclor has failed lo recover since completion of major bauxite and tourisl projects in the. Capital-intensive production methods and the recent economic setback caused the number of high-paying mining and manufacturing jobs to fallercentleak job prospects have caused the emigration of as many as two-thirds of all skilled workers trained in Jamaica
Outlook
Emigration from Jamaica will remain high over the next decade. Growing numbers of working-age people and an expected rise in labor participation will increase the size of the labor force. At the same lime, sluggish foreign investment inflows and prolonged fiscal austerity will limit job opportunities and wage gains. Nonetheless, strict foreign exchange controb in Jamaica (which make it difficult to prove self-Sufficiency toonresident visa to enter the United Stales) will work against any substantial increase in the outflow of migrants. In any case, mounting emigration pressures will give rise to additional black markets in foreign exchange and encourage greater use of fraudulent methods to gain entry. Against this background, Illegal migration through the US Virgin Islands may well pick up in the years ahead.
APPENDIX C
Trinidad ond Tobago
Despite its dynamic oil-based economy. Trinidad and Tobago ranks thirdource of illegal Caribbean migration to the United States. Before the, when legal emigration to the United Kingdom was easier, few Trinidadlans emigrated. In fact, Trinidadmall net recipient of migration. Few chose to leave the country inecause rapid economic growth provided attractive local employment opportunities. Inhen much lower increases in oil output sharply cut economic growth, slower job creation and rapid expansion in the labor force resulted in heavy emigration. So far during, employment opportunities created-by renewed growth in oil output and an expansion of public services have not kept pace with the increasing number of fob seekers; urban unemployment now approachesercent.esult, emigration has continued to climb, and the illegal flow to the United States is now triple the legal flow. Over the next decade, illegal migration will probably remain steady or drop slightly, resultingelative decline in Trinidad and Tobago's importanceource of illegal migration.
Economylar-to
Trinidad and Tobago enjoys an extremely high literacy rate, and per capita income is tbe highest of all the Caribbean source countries. Theis booming, withpercent real increase registered last yearimilar rate expected during the rest of the decade. Aboutercent of GDP is derived from oil production and processing, which usesercent of the nation's labor force. Labor productivity in this sector is almostimes the national average.
Port-of-Spain is using Us oil-revenues to build infrastructure and energy-intensive heavy industries to diversify the economy further. The agricultural sector Is decaying, however. Average sugar production during the past five years wasercent below the annual average during; other agricultural production has slipped even more. Agriculture's share of GDP is nowercent, though the sector still employsercent of the labor force. With the decline in sugar production, tourism has become the largest source of foreign exchange following oil.
Population Pottorm
High birth ratesharp falloff in mortality caused unprecedented population growthercent annually during. Heavyin, mainly to the United States and Canada, more than halved
Traded and Tobogo
Population {thousand pctvmt)
Average annual population growth (percent I
Labor force .thousand ptronj'
Manufacturing
Petroleum
Servm
mi-Go
ao
I960
<
artt
*5 1
93S
JI5*i
rn
S)
S t)ural avenge
Annual per capita income (US 1)
700
250
annual real COP growth (percent)
Croc- domestic product (mibson
.
Mi
Petroleum
Services
VaJue added per worker (US *)
Agriculture
Manisfrtng
Petroleum
- xes .
4S3 (lOOflr 5241
L200
)
107 7I97S
ex:
Manufacturing Petroleum
Ubor productivity) Agriculture *
Manufacturing
Serv*ioea ** Major Producti Crops: sugarcane cocoa, coffee, citrus ftvJi* Manufacturing petroc.Semjcab Mining: petroleum, sulfur, gypsum
2
101
is?
Cultivated land (thousand hectares)
Cultivated hectare* per agrinikuri! worker
5.4
310
n0
WPROlfTD FOR RELEASE DATE.1
the natural increase, cutting overall population growthlightly lower rate of natural increasemall rise iu emigration have reduced population growthercent. Though official statistics do noteaningful rural-urban population breakout, it isaccepted that there has been an urban population Increase since theresult of widening rural-urban income disparities due lo capital-intensive industrial development.
Port-of-Spainomprehensive birth control policynd current surveys indicate widespread contraceptive use. Birth rates have fallenercent during theercent. This decline should reduce the percentage of the population under ageromercent0 toercentespite this improvement, the numbers already born will cause those in the migration-prone years to continue to increase over the next decade.
Employment and Labor For<a
0mployment expanded by0 fobs,ercent yearly! About one-half of these jobs were in the public sector, which more than doubled toxpansion of the labor force during the same period was heldercent annually because more than one-half of tbe potential entrants to the labor force left the country.
Spinoffs from Porl-of-Spain's huge investment program will eventually increase job opportunities, although not enough to reduce unemployment Significantlyong decline, Trinidad's agricultural labor force is expected to stabilize at aboutresult of strong government support through infrastructure development and direct subsidies.
Outlook
Illegal emigration from Trinidad and Tobago will remain steady or drop only slightly over the nextears, causing its share of total illegal migration to the United States to decline. The expected one-fourth expansion in the migration-prone age group and increased labor force participation will to some extent offset the growth of joo opportunities- Because of the country's shortage of skilled workers, illegal migrants coming from Trinidad and Tobago in the years ahead may well have fewer skills than other illegals from the English-speaking Caribbean.
"TUiFiiiuiuj.
APPENDIX I>
Haiti
Although Haiti is the poorest and most populated country in the region, it supplies onlyercent of Caribbean illegal migration to the Unlled States. Economic stagnation and political repression inpurred the first wave of large-scale emigration Political and economic improvements since the death of "Papa Doc' Duvalier1 areecond and larger wave by somewhat reducing the financial and security constraints that kept many Haitians at home in the past. Most migrants are urbanites going to the United States. Canada, and France, although some agricultural workers cross Ihe border into the Dominican Republic or take small boats to the Bahamas Haitian illegals coming to the United States now are twice the legal inflow Given the prospect for some freedom and prosperity, we expect this illegal flow to expand during the next decade as increased rural migration to Port-au-Prince and other urban areas displaces larger numbers of urban workers. High transportation costs and stiff government fees for passports and other exit documents will continue to permit only fairly welt-off urban workers to emigrate.
Economyiant*
Agriculture in Haiti providesercent of CDP and employs nearlyercent of the labo* force. Subsistence farming on small, highly eroded farms predominates. Coffee is the major commercial crop and provides one-third of total export income. The fledgling industrial sector produces foodstuffs, clothing, and cement for domestic use Since the, export-oriented assembly industries have become increasingly important.
Poor agricultural performance and scant foreign capital inflows limited economic growthercent annually0evere soil erosionhift to low-value food crops to avert starvation in the overcrowded rural sector added to the malaise At the same time, foreign aversion to the repressive Papa Doc regime kept manufacturing and mining growthnail's pace. Slowly improving political conditions under "Baby Doc" Duvalier, who succeeded his fatherave encouragedof assembly industries and increased foreign aid for infrastructure projectsesult, annual economic growth hasercent in recent years.
Population PoHomi
Very high mortality rates and rising emigration have held Haiti'i population growthercent annuallyimited nonagricultural employment opportunities have kept urbanization Hell below that of other
Popuutton ttiWund eternal
. Rural
Urban
Average annual
'Jr tun
Labor force (thottund ptnotu)
AgllCUltUTf _ aj H4 4
Manufacturing ted mining
M0(ft!
tm
J.T
I WO
t)
244 tl2*l
KA
NA
6 (gift)
t) Ml ft)
US I)
Urban MiTUJT.gm
Rivali.i
Annual per capital income (US II
Average annual real CDP gro-th (percer*)
T j2
domestic product (nrilion US II
MknulWrunng *nd
Valuerkrr (US v
AgricultureMirauficturtcgining
h-
(itmi
151
Uft)ft)
I960
0
337
m
S7
Real CDP)
Manufacturing and mining
SonuiTu
Ubor productivity)
A gjxruilurc
Manufacturing and mining
Service*
Major product*taal. com. bearo Uanufioturinr mule* leather, ciotriia* (cooUtuttt.
aisemWv induttrieA Mining, Bauxite
Cultivated land {thousand htetamk
Cultivated hectatei per atrWutrural worker
119
100
LU
HO QJ
Tbe Clnin indicator of income oUtfrtburJon. Its value fluctuate* between one and> tbe incorat dkAfibulton beoonw more nearly equal the *ulue ar^proachn tero.
APPROVEO FOR RELEASE DATL1
major sending areas. Despite high birth rates, exceptionally high infant mortality has kept the share of population underears of age belowercent
Haiti's population growth has risenercent duringecause ongoing improvements in sanitation and medical facilities have reduced mortality rates. Birth rates would not fall proportionately, however.family planning efforts are very limited, and so far there is little popular acceptance or knowledge of birth control methods.
Employment and Labor Forte
Moderate population growth and emigration of working-age people held growth in the labor forceercent annually0he vast majority of new workers were employed in the low-paying agriculture and service sectors. Despite considerable employment growth in the labor-intensive manufacturing sector, industry absorbsercent of the workmarginally more than
Extensive female and child employment keeps the labor forcerate high. Family participation is necessary to compensate for primitive farming methods on subsistence plots and to permit male family members to work as day laborers on coffee plantations. As in the Mexican border area, women are most in demand for the Haitian assembly industry.esult, working-age women have led the rural migration to Port-au-Prince and other urban areas.
Outlook
Illegal migration from Haiti to the United States is likely to expand rapidly in the next decade. Increased government spending on health care will spur rapid growth of population in the migration-prone age group. Stagnant agricultural performance and increasing resistance to the migration of Haitian agricultural workers by the Dominican Republic and the Bahamas should increase rural migration to urban Haitian areas. Further industrial growth should augment urban incomes and, ironically, make it easier for urbanites to leave Haiti for the United States.
28
-rmitinrrai/i!
APPENDIX E
Guyana
Although severe economic difficulties caused the flow of illegals from Guyana to surgehe country is the source of onlyercent of total Caribbean illegal emigration to the Unitedpurt in population growth without adequate job creation turned Cuyanamall net recipient of migration duringradually increasing net supplier ot migrantsirtually all Guyanese emigrants are urban workers, bound mainly for the United States and Canada. Roughly two out of three Guyanese migrating to this country do so illegally. Given therospects'for substantial job improvement in the forseeable future, the backlog in the population entering the migration-prone years should keep the flow of illegals around the7 level.
Economylome
Sugar, bauxite, and rice account for at leastercent of Guyana's national production. Poor performance by these products has held overall economic growthercenthe government controls as much asercent of the economy. Nationalization of the remaining private holdings in the bauxite and alumina industry5 and weak world demand have kept output sluggish in this sector. Moreover, the sharp drop in world sugar prices5 has cut deeply into government revenues, thereby slowing public investment projects. Labor unrest and poor weather have added to tbe economic downturn.
Population Pattern*
Despite Cuyanas emergenceet source of emigration, sharply declining death rates pushed, population growthercent annually during, comparedercent during the previous decade. Stagnating agricultural employment and poor living standardsassive outflow from rural areas. Urban population growth in Guyana was the highest in the region during, with the share of the population living in urban areas going fromercent toercent. Increasing emigration0 has helped reduce birth rates and cut average annual population growthercent.
Racial tension and Georgetown's development strategy encourage natalist attitudes in Guyana. The division of the country's, two dominant ethnicIndians andsharply distinct political parties taints any suggestion of population control with fears oforeover, the country's plan to develop its rich interior would require large increases in
"1
OR ftElEfiSE DATL1
Guyono
Population (thootind
Rurali.ii<i-
u foi o m
Avenge annual popuUbon growth*
Laborhousand persona)
i.
Muxifacturinc and mining
Rural*
445
NA
NA
II NA
) 64 ft)0
0
I960
7X)
zb
U
*b
) 7057
pee capitaUS I) *
Average annual real CDP growth (percent)*
Gross dctacatk product (million US I)
Agriculture
Iter (US >:
ManuiAcrunnc and mining Service*
Value added
Agrtculturr
KUndacruring and rruruog
6
) 27 ft) 22 4 0
44C
0
GDP) .
Apicuiture
Manufacturing and mining
peoductevfty)
Agrvxirure
rtag and aripiaig
Service* t.
Major
C/cex mgarana, race
rijitft* tvf if aJuann wcraj product] Mining bauute
Cdnvaaed UndwetajwaJ CultSaied hectam per agricuhural *orfcer
e.5
APPROVEO FOR RELEASE DATL1
UMfiueii_
labor supply. (Abouterceni of (be population lives along Guyana's coastalesult, there Is no public and little private support for family planning.
Employment ond Labor
Rapid growth in the labor supply in the face of poor economic performance has pushed unemployment in Cuyana to one-fourth of the work force. Increasing mechanization limited the growth of agriculturaltoercent annually0ercent increase in real annual output. With the migration of underemployed rural workers to the city, the productivity of urban workers has fallen slightly.
Oul look
Illegal migration from Cuyana during the next decade probably will be sustained at least at tbe current high level. The spurt in population growth duringill continue to boost growth in the labor supply.-Moreover, -gradual recovery fromconomic trough cannot be expected to absorb fully entrants into the labor force.
APPENDIX F
Borbadot
III small population makes Barbados only the sixth largest source of Caribbean illegal migration to the United States despite the fact that its population density is the region's highest Barbadians, like Jamaicans,took advantage of their country's colonial status to emigrate legally to the United Kingdom Tight British immigration controls2 have diverted most migrants to the Unitedentera smaller number to Canada. Widespread use of contraceptives has cut the birth rate to the lowest level in the Caribbean. The resulting low natural increase in population will restrain and may well decrease illegal migration over the next decade.
Economylonco
Tourism dominates economic activity in Barbados, generating almostercent of national output. World economic difficulties largely caused the sector to stagnategriculture, mainly sugar cultivation, accounts forercent of the GDP. Sugar production fell IL percent5 due to poor weather and has recovered only slowly Moreover, the sharp drop in world sugar prices5 has further cut sugar earnings, limiting construction and investment throughout the economy Local industry,on food processing and export-oriented manufactures, also has been hurt by agricultural problems and world recessionesult, economic growth averagedercent annually37
Population Poflorni
A sharp drop in birth rates and Increased emigration cut growthercent annually during, compared with
ercent In the previous decade. The island's longstanding preoccupation with its high population density encouraged the establishment of one of the first publicly supported birth control programs in thehe Barbados Family Planning Association began operations5 and is largelyforpercent decline in birth rates during. Further declines0 have reduced natural population growth toercent, and emigration has cut actual population growth to nearly zero
Employment ond Labor Ferta
Emigration of many potential entrants to the job market held total labor force growthercent. Very poorarge outflow from the agricultural work force Employment in
MPRQWO FIR RtUASE MTLSIMIII
PopuUtKm (tbouund penoni)
Average annual population growth
Labor force (thomand_
Manufacturing and mining
Service. __
Daily wages (US I)
Urban
verage.
Annual per capita Income (US I)
Average annua) real CDP growth {percent)
I0OS)ft)4 (SO*)
m
5
)6
doenenic product (allboo US
Manuiaetunng and
Value added per worker (US I) -
Apiculture
Manufacturing and mining
7 Oft) Mft)
I960
)8
CDP)
Agriculture
Manufacturing and mining -
Labor productinry}
Manufacturing and raining
Major prodiacu Crop- lugarcane, ihrlmp Manufacturing; refined wgar. pnxeued loodj Mining. Iiirenonr
Cultivated Land (ibousutd bectara)
l hcciaici pet agricultural
191
n
<3
19
SO
2
UPPPDHID FOP REIEASE DATE.1
riot*
miiiPiportiAL.
tourism and light industry grew sufficiently to keep unemployment stable at aroundercent, however.
Outlook
Some easing of demographic pressures in Barbados mayecline in illegal migration over the next decade.he share of the population underears ot age was the smallest in the region. Moreover, falling birth rates should cause that age group's share of the population to continue to decline. With the bulge in the labor force already past, moderately good ormance in industry and tourism shouldreater share of those entering the migration-prone age group.
UPPPQVED FOP REIEASE
DATE.IL.
Original document.
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