IRAQ: Political Situation
Although we do not yet know what touched off political turbulence in Iraq, our beatthat Preeident Saddam Husayn overreacted toothers in the leadership that he hold overdueeleetiono to legitimize hie cuccesoion to He have no hard evidence pointing to anplot or coup attempt.
Saddam does not appear to have forced formerBakr to resign, but some senior Baathists used Bakr' retirement to push for elections to the Baath Partycommand that were scheduled for last January. Saddam saw thishallenge and jailed those pushing for elections. He may now be using the episode as ato remove others in tho power structure whosehe doubts. Saddam Husayn seems to have relied heavily during the period of tension on family members, notably his brother Barzan, the acting chief of theservice, and Defonse Minister Talfah, hit trother-in-law.
Speculation about Syrian backing for athe regime continues to aboard in Baghdadthe government's official explanationof accusing the Syrians. econdvisited Baghdad,ier thiswasurther attemrt bv Syrianto assure the Iraqis thatcontacts with
the accused. Some deterioration in bilateral relationsnevitable. Unless it is arrested, it couldthe unified Arab effort to isolate EgyptianSadat.
Saddam reportedly has counseled the special tribunal set up to try the alleged conspirators to be strict with the leading figures but to be discriminating and avoid convicting large numbers on weak evidence. This suggests an awareness that harsh, widespread reprisals could be counterproductive. Saddam also appears to be moving to reduce tho potentialilitary backlash by having the arrested military officers tried by their peersourt martial rather thanivilian tribunal.
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