INTELLIGENCE AGENCY
-NATIONAL FOREIGN ASSESSMENT.
0
ITALY: THF-AN UPDATE
Su.Taaru
Qincejlcst December's pci'liemcntary vote ratifying the Italian government's decision io participate in the TUP izodernisaticn programf tlie prospects fcr Rome foliating thrcz'jh on its pledge hove become uncertain. The oo&hcsthe fragile, political consensus that has kep* Prima minister Cossiga in office eince last August and has helped revive tlio question of CorKunist participationuture government. s nou seeaiepresent government collapcas in tha near future, substantive issues such as TBF are likely to be subordinated to the "Cemmmict question" for the duration cf ihe anticipatedas longc couldargainiiig chip in ths interparty negotiations toovernment.
The Coffjnunist Question
The key to Cosslga's hold on power has been Socialists' willingness to abstain on important parliamentaryThe TlIF voterocess that has called this arrangement into question by precipitating first the reemergence of factional squabbling among the Socialists and then the party's threat to withdraw its essential prop for the governaent. Leftwtng Socialists disagreed^ the eleventh hougwith Party Secretary'Craxi's support for articipation In the THF program, and perhaps half of the Socialist delegation deserted the government on the December vote.
Qhe intraparty dispute continued to grow, andocialist Central CwmiTtee meeting earlier this month, the matter cameead. The party'sg--led by Deputy Secretary Signorfle, former Secretary De Kartino and newly-elected Party Presidentorced Craxi and his supporters to agree to abandon Cossiga if his Christian Democratic Party
oj i'oliticcl Analysts The paper lias been cooratiutied vizn xtie rlationcl Intelligence Officer for Western Europe. Eesecrc'i ucs completed onanuary ISBO. Queztionc and comments may be addressed to
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led at its congress In February,toovernment coalition includingoth.the Socialists.and CoumunistsJ
' Ct is vary unlikely the Christian Oemoerats will decide to yield to Uie
V" Socialist ultimatum! The positions taken at the recently-held Christian Democraticparty congresses seem to indicate that the party will adopt the position
espoused by its own leftby Cosslga, Party Secretary Zaccagnini and formerMinister Andreottl. These leaders maintain that some type of Coionunistparticipation In theof holding cabinetnecessary if the country is to begin to deal effectively with its persistent problems.hristian Democratic moderates and conservatives^ including Senate President Fanfani, Party Vice Secretary Oonat Cattln and Minister of Industry BisagliaJ continue to prefer the eventual formationive party non-Cermintst majority resting on thethough this alternative is rather clearly foreclosed for the time being.
For their part, Communist chief Berlinguer and his-allies, who dominate theireadership, are unlikely to budge froa their demands for direct Communist participation in the government. The Ccnrwnists' experience8 as'part of the parliamentary majority supporting the government generated great dissatisfaction smong the party rank andattitude which was confirmed by the Communists' poor performance in last June's general election. Consequently, it is improbable that Berlinguer would agreeimilarin view of next June's nationwide local electionsTJ
Qt is still uncertain that the Socialists will follow through on theirparty leaders fear their role inrisis would hurtchances in the June elections. However, the combative mood ofleft wing makes it likely the party will back up Us ultfratum
the government does fall, the proximity of the local elections makes it highly unlikely that any party would make the concessions necessary for the formationew government, for fear of damaging its prospects at the polls. In this case, there nay be little choice but to piecearetaker government to last until the vote and the subsequent reassessment of party positions are completed. Only then could serious negotiations on the resolution of the crisis begin. The continued reluctance of the Christian Democrats to meet the Coamunists' demandslear stake in power and of the Communists' to settle for anything less virtually guarantees that any agreement will unfold slowly, probably over the courseear or more.
The Role of TKF
These more pressingof the government and the "Coemunistpushed THF into the background, and it is likely to retrain there at least for the time being. However, the Coraiunists have kept the issue alive to use as part of their litany of attacks on the government and to buttress their argumentsirect governing role. The Ccaroinists' position
on TBi' is very similar to that of many Dutch, Oanisherman Social Democrats who haveix month postponeinent ef the Alliance decision and the suspension ofroduction and deployment by Moscow. The Italian party has maintained that these measures are necessary to facilitate talks between HATO and the Warsaw Pact designed to determine whether an imbalince oi European forces existsreestablish the equilibrium by cutting, rather than increasing, the mcber of missiles.
(ihe Conanists have tried to capitalize on the recent increase'in international tensions to bolster theirarguments against Tiff. They hope to counteract the perception that these developmentse THF modernization even more necessary by exploiting the growing Italian fears over the future ofconcept that has broad popular appeal in Italy as the foundation of world peace and stabllityTJ
For instance, while condemning the Soviet invasion of Afghanistan and calling for the withdrawal of Moscow's troops, the Communists have argued that the move was only the latesteries ofhich the THF controversy must be counted. In their view, if the government were to keep its THF pledge, the result wouldurther blew to detente. The Communist positionis the governmento have been strengthened further by the suspension of the SALT II ratification process and uncertain prospec's for other d'.sarmrent initiatives which collectively were seen by most Italians as essential coap'eeents to the THF program. Qn addition, the go/ernoent will be particularly vulnerable to Connunist claims that by going along with the modernization, Rome will be echoing us policy uncritically; this issue may come up in conjunction with Italian efforts to obtain asystem in the programj
these ciresistances, and given the likelihood that themay te prepared to back the Cuoaunists, it is very unlikely thataeven consider raising the contentiousittt issue in the near futurej Although the government's formal decision to participateemain Intact, Italy's ability to Implement its pledge may remain in Hcbo--perhaps as long as auntil the emergenceore stable governing majority.
Nonetheless.may be tapped to succeed himself as caretaker-remains committed to Italian participation in the TNF programed may be working to obtain at least tacit Communist acquiescence in the government's decision. Me was encouraged by the Communists'to the vote-to resist intense Soviet pressure toougher line and their refusal to exploit nascent popular opposition to the program in Italy. Cossiga may be convinced that he can extract still further concessions from the Communists on issues such as THE by offeringeme what greater role in tt* governing process following the June electionTJ
s possible thathe emerges from the vote wilh hii leadership and policiesprove to be nore flexible than he can be now in negotiations on both domestic and international issues. But his price for cooperation oncould take the form of his party abstaining on any future TNFprobably hinge on the Christian Oemoerats'. acceptancerocess leading to direct Cotmunist participation in the governwntj
Bolstering Italian Support
dp the interim, there arc several areas in which Italian support for TKF can be strengthened. The Italian pressignificant role Inalanced view of the issue prior to the December parliamentary debate; this must be continued if Rome is to follow through on its commitment. Stefano Silvestriuropeo and Eugonio Scalfari of La Repubblica. journalists whose opinions are respected In intellectual and "'socialist circles, can be very helpful in maintaining public approval of Italian participation in the THF program. Silvestri has backed the Alliance decision, while Scalfarialthough agreeing inWte "six month delay" argument in the latter stages of last year's debate^
The defection of left wing Socialists from the government's positionhe December vote creates particular cause for concern about TKF's tuture in Italy. Hen such as Slgnorllc, De Martino, Loabardi and Ciacomo Kon..inf seemed to spearhead the left wing's lest minute refusal to proceed with thea provision were added to reverse Italy's pledge of support if success in disarmament talks madeove practical. The support of this group will be essential if the governmento strengthen its hand on this Issue in tho upcomingavoid theituation of bei.ng sustained on THF only by the neo-fascist Italian Social Movement^
Even the support of some Christian Democrats seems uncertain. For example, the government was expected to command about four hundred votes last December, but It garnered only three hundred twenty eight on the key resolution. It is unclear whichfrom the Socialists--deserted the government, but the strong public support expressed by the smaller parties and the relative silence of the Christian Democrats seem to indicate that aany of the "no-shows" caee from Cossiga's own party. Qtery likely that Zaccagnfni, Andreottl, Guido Badrato and Ciriaco Oe Mita-to speak out forcefully on the issue enabled members of their respective factions to ignore party discipline and abstain from voting. The backing of these leaders and particularly ofhas staked out an ambiguous position on THF to avoid alienating the Communistsis crucial if the Christian Democrats are to remain committed to the Alliance decision^
The Communists are likely to maintain theirAubli3opposUion to the THF program. (However, the party's apparent comitment to demonstrate Us "autonomy"oreign affairs may make it receptive to briefings on the issue. Key Communists concerned with TKF are defense experts ugo Pecchioli and franco Calamanorei. foreign affairs specialist Sergio Segre and Secretariat Berber
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