Afghanistan: Outlook for the Insurgency During winter
The course of the insurgency will be shaped prioarily by factors that have been central to the conflict since it began inSoviet support, loyalty of the military, and rebel disunity. ttM
effect ofarrived this month in northern and easternthe scale and teicpo of the insurgency will depend on the severity of the weather. Last winter insurgent tribesmen took advantage of unusually mild weather to expand their areas ofin the eastern provinces, currently the scene of the heaviest fighting. MMj
The course of the insurgency during theending in April will be shaped primarily bythat have been central to the conflict since itin the spring ofsupport; loyaltymilitary, and disunity.of rebel forces. Neithernor the rebels ippear capable of gaicing ain the months ahead. Both sides cayon. strengthening their respective*
he.chances this winter are good for further-mutinies in the Army,-and this could bring about the collapse of President Aoin's regime. Unless the Amy turns against the regime and roaches an understanding with the tribes, however, the rebellion probably will drag oninto the spring.
Other factors will transcend weather in detenaining tbe course of the insurgency during the cooing Booths. The rebel effort will continue to be iapeded by the failure of the vatious independent insurgent groups tc coordinate operations. Additionally, unless the rebels
receive nore meaningful military support talHBVBHL^H
than it bas thusantitank and antiair-craftmore financial backing froa Saudi Arabia, their effort to bring the Soviet-equipped Aia> to the- point of collapse may lose momentum.
Original document.
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