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National Intelligence Daily
Saturday
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Domestic Unrest
Antigoo*rnr*ent activity in Iraq i* increasing.
Shia dissident attacke cn police and governmentincreased last month in Baghdad and, in some southern provinces. In January and again in early March, Shia saboteurs disrupted traffic on thel Basrah rail line.
Kurdish guerrilla activity haa also picked up. The Kurds, who are more active when winter weather reatricta Iraqi troop movement, probably are being encouraged by Iran undeaser extent Syria. 1
year-old Baathlat regime is not in anydanger, however. President Saddam Husayn and other Iraqi leadera are uaing both repression and welfare programa to combat disaffection among the large Shia and Kurdlah communities. The Baathiata have also tried to deemphssize their secularlam and identify more withvaluea.
IS March ISBG
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