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INTELLIGENCEfttiiONAL FOREIGN ASSESSMENT
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Despite growing pressurehange of'government- 'Zsoasrafctp, JtaZy'apolitical parties naychoiae but to keep Primeomething my sisAlcv'to-it^.offie* -thfevgKaHonwide local slectiona. The .Christianand Socialists apparently are reluctant ivovernment crisis and the inevitable confrontation over the eueetion of. including the Coommietsuccessor government until they have reevaluated their relative positions after tiieote. In the meantim, Cossiga.willg^
unable to take.decisive action-to treat the-'country'emany problems.
The "Communist question' once again has become the primary topic of political debate in Italy becauserowing perception among Italians that effective government is impossible without some Communistrime Minister Cosslga has been unable to obtain the parliamentary backing necessary to combat Italy's pressing Institutional, economic and public order problems. The Communists apparently are helping their own cause by mobilizing their constituents to exploit the perception ofgovernmental Impotence and to tout the advantages of an option .including the Comaunists.
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Communist prospects have also been strengthenedajor shift in the policy of the Socialist Party-an -essentialcomponent-of-any
Conrounist majority. Acting under the pressure of their left-wing, whichovernment including the Communists, the Socialists have threatened to bring down Cossiga by refusing to abstain on key parliamentary votes. Despite fears thatrisis could hurt Socialistlectoral chances this spring, party leaders may have no choice but to-follow through on this threat unless the Christian Oemocratsovernment including the Communists at their party congress scheduled to open later this month.
Connunist chancesirect governing role have also been affected by the Soviet invasion ofhas once again "broughtthe-fore the issue of the Italian party's relationship with Moscow. Communist leaders have tried to parry renewed expressions of doubtheir party's "autonomy" by condemning the SovietAt the sane time, in an effort to assuage those party mutants wholearly pro-Moscow line. Communist leaders have criticized US countermeasures and calledlfor European initiatives to dampen tensions anddetente.
Some Christian Democrats reportedly view the Coomunist stance on the Soviet invasion asbreak with Moscow" that removes one of the strongest arguments for excluding the-party from anenhanced^governmentaV role. Continued skepticism, however, among other Christian Democrats probably will permit the party congress only to approve cooperation with-the Communists falling short of inclusionhe government. This concession will be unacceptable to the Communists who have promised their constituents they will accept nothing less than cabinethe Communist stance, In turn, will force the Socialists to act-T"
Socialisttoay out of their-have agreed to interparty "program" negotiationsguided crisis" that would keep Cossiga in place until some mutually agreeable alternative could be found. All the major parties except the Communists have already agreed to these talks; the Communists may decline unless the Christian Democrats and some of the smaller parties concederogram agreement might leadovernment Including the Communists. The proximity of the June elections, however, makes it highly unlikely that any party would makeoncession and risk damaging Its prospects at the polls. If agreedrotracted negotiations probably would avoid charges of Socialist culpabilityrisis, fulfill the Christian Democrats' desire to extend Cossiga's tenure as long as possible, -and allow the Ctmmunists to go Into the electionitting government. In any case, serious negotiations aimed at overcoming the political stalemate will not begin until after the elections.
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Original document.
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