NEAR EAST AND SOUTH ASIA REVIEW

Created: 3/14/1980

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Near East and South Asia Review

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NEAR EAST AND SOUTH ASIA REVIEW0 CONTENTS

India: Gandhi Sets the Tone for RelationsSmaller Neighbors I T

Prime Minister Gandhi has left little doubt in meetings with the rulers of Nepal, Bhutan, and Bangladesh that her return to power signifies the restorationterner approach to these weak but strategically located states. tfM

India: Gandhi Sets the Tone for Relations With Its Smaller NeighborsSJ

In recent meetings between Prime Minister Gandhi and rulers of Nepal, Bangladesh, and Bhutan, Gandhi has left little doubt that her return to power signifies the restorationess conciliatory approach toward these weak but strategically located neighboring states. India does not want its role as the preeminent regional power diminished or challenged and is suspicious of efforts to counterbalance India's overwhelming presence.

While campaigning for reelection last fall, Gandhi criticized the Janata government for going overboard with the "good neighbor" policy she herself adopted toward the end of her previous. She Believed that India's decisive victory over Pakistan1 clearly established India's predominance and permitted her to be more generous in dealing with other neighbors. During itsalf-year rule, the Desai administratic. concluded bilateral agreements with Nepal and Bangladesh that were too generous in Candhi's view. Bhutan,utilized Gandhi's political eclipse to actmore independently,reaty obligation requiring it to consult with India in foreign policy matters, pjaj

At the Nonaligned Conference last fall, for example, the King of Bhutan ignored India's recommendation to acquiesce in Vietnam's invasion of Kampuchea. The King also made arrangements to open an embassy in Bangladesh, and the two countries hurriedly exchanged resident ambassadors before Gandhi's new government took office in January, IJ|

Gandhi's sweeping electoral victory places her in almost absolute control of Indian foreign policy, and she will determine whether India should be tough or permissive toward its neighbors. The regional states are acutely aware of their vulnerability to Indian policy in economic and security matters and realize that running afoul of Gandhi is not in their best interest, tjmm

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On the other hand, the Pakistan-Afghanistan conflict has brought new uncertainties to South Asia, and Gandhi's recent outwardly warm meetings with neighboring rulers may reflect her discomfiture at being the only regional leader to accept Moscow's rationale for the takeover in Afghanistan. India has not found any local support for the conceptegional conference to consider solutions to the Afghan crisis, and Gandhi presently lacks theto speak in behalf of the entire region on the matter.

Nepal's King Birendra, who just returned from talks in New Delhi, is most unlikely to cross Gandhi in the near future, however, because his government is under strong domestic political and economic pressure. Soaring prices on essential commodities and increasing fuelare troubling the Nepalese economy. At the same time, Birendra is cautiously responding to public demands to liberalize his tightly controlled governing system. This delicateIndiaerupt in political chaos at almost any time. Birendra realizes that Gandhi considers Nepal to be within India's security orbit, and many Nepalese expect she may try to influence the political process and even send in the Indian military if Nepal's political transformation ran into deep trouble. Gandhi most likely warned Birendra about the danger of increased Chinese influence in Nepal, but he probably is much more apprehensive about possible Indian intervention.

There are no pressing bilateral issues, but India and Nepal are frequently at odds over trade matters and the adequacy of transit facilities for landlocked Nepal through India. The two sides also disagree overtoward the much needed development of Nepal's eastern water resources. India is opposed to aregional scheme in conjunction with Bangladesh, partly because it feels threatened by almost any effort to strengthen ties among the small countries on its periphery. Emm

Gandhi's assent is crucial to any breakthrough on water sharing. The immediate outlook is not promising, however, because New Delhi has recentlyard line in negotiations with Bangladesh over apportionment of water from the Ganges River. While Gandhi was out of

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Bangladesh agreed to make9 studies ard arrive at an agreement within three years for developing and sharing water re-

thirrt t0 lnv?1Yehere almost a

rLzSmHJfallftt Wa^er ori9-nates. India,anal across Bangladesh, linking thelth GR-Ver In India's Assa2 State.

talkS ended la8tin

r.inflff9 produced the smallest amountin decades, and water shortages this yearrepercussions in both Sy -ry t0 exPloitnterim ^reement, signed when she was

L Se4 in ?rder t0 discredit the Communist govern-

faM ?ftprSLBJh9al State andtrigger its down-ta.il later in the year. ffBfH

trade issues, minor boundaryorde5by tribal insurgents flare up

few Sears"^naS'Ee-"ions in thehUesh President Zia is well aware,anno5 af?ord to irritate Gandhi. He wasily^UOyedJby his talks within January, SttiJSI?nd-resentmentin coloredi-? S ndiaesult of the failure of the latest round of water talks, ffm

year-old King of Bhutan has alsoore realistic picture of Bhutan's limited latitude inrules India. andhi inbruary' the King wasuarded about any revision in9 Indo-Bhutanese J aal"in? relations with China. Lasteeded uP<-ating to remove them Bhutan's agreement to consult with India on foreign policy, pjjm

trade

Gandhi probably extinguished whatevermay have had for establishing diplomaticrelations with China or demarcating theare likely to find

India's heavy hand in their affaire increasingly offen-

IhX'-SJ BhuSan has littleo toe the line

?dia ?" on developing its infrastruc-ture, largely with Indian aid.

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