The Afghan Refugees: An Irritant to Soviet-Pakistani Relations (c)
resistance efforts ire receiving support from families encamped as
refugees in Pakistan and from related tribes who live in the Pakistani borderlands. Sov;et and Afghan military forces may attempt to curb cross-border activity when weather conditions improve in April and
If retaliatory action is taken against refugee groups in Pakistan, likely danger zones are in the upper Konar Valley in Chiiral District, in Mohmand tribal territory north of the Khyber Pass, and in the area of Parachinar in the Kurram Valley. The Pakistani Government may choose to reduce the strain in Soviet-Pakistani relations by removing refugees from the border at ira H
Morefghan refugees are located in the border areas of Pakistan; most eventually register with government agencies in orderstablish eligibility for relief supplies, andre already registered in camps ringing in sizelmost all the refugees are Pusbtun tribesmen, (u)
Cross-border triba' lies, coinbined with the tendency to travel in extended family units, nave enabled the refugees to survive until now without much government support. The need, however, for food, shelter, and sanitation systems is growing, (u)
The Afghan Refugees: An Irritant to Soviet-Pakistani Rclalio
Support for rebels in Afghanistan by Afghan refugees in the border zones of Pakistan could provoke retaliatory action by Soviet forces in Afghanistan. Afghan male refugees reenter Afghanistan from Pakistan to defend their tribal homelands from what they perceive as lhe godless government in Kabul. They return periodically to Pakistani territory to vita their families, to acquire arms and ammunition, and to seek medical treatment, in effect using the frontier areas of Pakistan as safe havens. Afghan Government and Soviet spokesmen accuse them of being among the "foreign elements' responsible for the widespread dissidence in Afghanistar
Pakistanithorities have tried to discourage activities by the refugees that wouldorder incident and have restricted their official support to relief aid in the form of food, medicine, and ether humanitarian supplies. But they cannot prevent the movement of small groups of people back and forth across the border, which cuts through mountainous terrain in tribal territory over which government forces have never exercised more than limited ccmrol|^B
Apart from rhetoric, the Afghan Government and the Soviet authorities have been lestrained in their reactions to refugee cross-border activities. Last fall the Afghanat the urging of Sovietto defuse the situation byrace period for the return of the refugees without reprisals. Although the period was extended, few refugees accepted theoffcrf
There is some indication that Soviet officials are now willing to consider retaliatory airstrikes against rebel sanctuaries in Pakistan. In addition, the rugged terrain in the border zone would not preclude small cross-border land-based raids by the Soviets, alihough land operations using mechanized equipment would be restricted to three or four major crossing poiits^^A
spring offensive by Afghan and Soviet military lorces in the Konar
Dangerin eastern Afghanistan, which began in early March, increased the
flow of refugees into Pakistan along the section of the border north of the Khyber Pass. Present danger zones for refugee-caused incidents are in the upper Konar Valley in Chttral District and in Mohmand tribal territory. During the pastonths, the Mohmands in Pakistan have actively
The Soviet forces have recently expanded their guerrilla-clearing operations into the provinces south of the Kabul River Valley,rimary danger zone now is the Parachinar area of the Kurram Valley. In this region are concentrations of refugees from the tribes which have been most active in the guerrilla activity in the environs of Kbowst in Pakiia Province. Most of the routes from neighboring Nangarhar, Lowgar. and Paktia Provinces in Afghanistan funnel into the Kurram Valley, which provides access to the Pushtun tribal gun and ammunition manufacturing center at Darra in the hills south of Peshawar. The Kurram Valleyraditional invasion route into Pakistan from Afghanistan; at itsclosest noint, Pakistani territory is only aboutilometers from Kabui.^H
Thecurrent best estimate, morefghan refugees are located in
the border areas of Pakistan, from Chitral in the north as far south and west as Dalbandin in Baluchistan Province. Most are in the North-West Frontier Province; fewerre in Baluchistan. The number in the northern areas has increased as refugees from the current military operations make their way to Pakistan. Most of them entered Bajaur District and Mohmand tribal territory. If Soviet antigucrrilla operations continue to expand, the refugee totals in Pakistan could approach moreillion by May or June, (y)
Most of the refugee influx occurred during the last sixrickle of refugees began to flow toward Pakistan inhe number of 'egistered refugees in camps increased from0 in9nhen doubledyG. Many uncounted Afghans have been absorbed into tribes in Pakistan related to their own. (il)
Currently, there areoose concentrations of refugees, whichroad sense can be considered ccmps. Of these,re in the North-West Frontier Province andn Baluchistan. The size of these encampments rangeshe number fluctuates as refugees move in and out. Most of the refugees not in camps are in the North-West Frontier Province. Many of these are clustered in groups of three to eight families, encamped wherever water is available. Scarcity of water and forage in the arid border zone limits the size of encampments and dictates periodicv)
Compositionclear paltcrn on the composition of the refugee groups emerges. Children
Refugeetoears oldhird to half the total number of refugees, and
in most camps there are twice as many children as women. The ratio of men to women is high in some camps, low in others. The camps with comparatively large percentages of males arc in Pishin and Zhob Districts in Baluchistan. One of the largest of the refugees camps,0 people near Lorahi, for example,pcrcent male,percent female, andpercent children.ot he encampment inroupowithout women and children, saying that the trip would have been too arduous for them. They are seeking weapons, not food and shelter. fxjJ
Cross-border tribal ties, combined with the tendency to travel in extended family units, have enabled the refugees to survive without much government support. The need, however, for food, shelter, and sanitation systems is great. Most refugees eventually register with government agencies in order to establish eligibility for relief supplies, including UN aid administered by the Pakistani Government, (u)
Some clearly arc not refugees in the norma) meaning of the term. In determining refugee status, the Pakistani Government is systematically excluding kuchis, the nomads who annually migrate from the mountains in Afghanistan into the warmer valleys in Pakistan during the winter. Trying to justify their registration as refugees and thus their eligibility for government largesse, the kuchis say that although they arrived as usual last fall, they do not plan to return to Afghanistan this spring because of unsettled conditions there. Most of the kuchis are Ghilzais and are concentrated in Baluchistan and in the Gonial and Tochi River Valleys in Waziristan. (u)
Almost alland nonnomadicPushtuns. In the Peshawar Valley and to the north, they are mostly members of the Safi, Mohmand, Shinwari, and Khugiani tribes; in the Kurram and Waziristan areas, they are principally Jajis, Mangals, Jadrans, Waziris, Mahsuds, and Ghilzais. Most of the refugees in Baluchistan are from seminomadic Durrani tribes. Pushtuns who arrived from urban areas in Afghanistan flocked to Peshawar, the center of refugee activity, and to Quetta; the minority who could afford it moved on to Western Europe and the United States. Those from rural villages are scatteredare generally closeborder. It is these rural Pushtun tribesmen, with warrior traditionsonservative Islamic outlook, who make up the most inflexible and active opposition to Communist rule, (u)
Secret
in theeason for Change
activity in the borderlands resumed in early March with the Afghan-Soviet guerrilla-clearing operations in the Konar Valley. Harsh winter conditions had restricted military activity in Afghanistan'srovinces, confining Soviet and Afghan military forces to strong points along the main roads and at Gardez and Khowst. with the recent increase in Soviet antiguerrilla operations in the provinces south of the Kabul River Valley, the Soviets may try to restrict tribal movements in the vicinity of lhe border in Afghanistan. This could reduce: eliminate cross-border movement between Afghanistan and Pakistan. The nigged mountainous terrain, with hundreds of seldom-used border passes, makes effective patrolling extremely difficult.^
The concentration of refugees in the proximity of the border is an issue in Soviet-Pakistani relations that they attempt to defuse. They may attempt to move the refugees into camps away from the border area to facilitate distribution of relief supplies, to better control the movement of the refugees in the frontier areas, and to reduce the inevitable tensions that will erupt between the refugees and the local population over grazing and water rights and 'ther economically based issues. The refugees haveeluctance to leave the border area near their homelands and may resist thefforts to relocate them; moreover, many are not acclimated to the high summer temperatures at lower elevations in the hill lindsB
Original document.
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