SELECTED ITEMS FROM THE NATIONAL INTELLIGENCE DAILY

Created: 9/6/1995

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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Items From the

National

Intelligence

Daily

5

COPY 1 for release

SOUTH ASIA (continued)

Government Under Siege

Military pressure from the resurgent Taliban movement and its own growing isolation arc threatening the Rabbani government's survival. The regime's offensives against opposition leaders Dostam and Hikmaiyar have stalled; it now controls only Kabulouple of provinces in the northeast. Taliban's capture of Herat deprives ihc governmenirimary source of military supplies, particularly fuel, and aid from abroad will be hard to come by.

On Friday, the opposition Supreme Coordination Council threatened to intercept cargo or passenger aircraft that do not seek its permission to enter Afghan airspace, according to press reports.

Taliban continues to resist Russian negotiatorshartered Russian aircraft and crew it seized lasi month while Ihey were (rying to deliver ammunition to Kabul, press reports say.

The governmenttrong position in Kabul, however, and will not be easy to dislodge if Rabbani can hold his coalition together and keep

commanders frombetween

Rabbani's Islamic activist supporters andhe bureaucracy who are alarmed by the growing influence of the activists, and key commanders in Kabul are divided on which factionupport.

In the past, threats from outside have tended to encourage these elements to cooperate, and Taliban's successes, apparently including the recent ones, have owed more lo Us abilUy to suborn enemy commanders than to Us fighting prowess. It would be no match for the regime's seasoned troopsUched battle for the capital.

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