AFRICA REVIEW -- TANZANIA: ADOPTING AGGRESSIVE APPROACH TOWARD REFUGEES

Created: 8/28/1995

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

Directorate of Intelligence

Africa Review

5

BrPROVlD rOR RElifiSE MTE SiMM1

Tanzania: Arjoptuig Aggressive Approach Toward Refugees

cs Salaam is taking an Increasingly tough line against the rnoecurundian and Kwan-dan refugees camped In wciieni Tin tarda and the TuUl doaunated Burundian Aimed Forces, whxb Oar es Salaam blames lor tornenticg ittatability along tlx border.

Prcsideni Mwmyi. used Tanzania's border with Rwanda and rluxundn earlier this year, maintaining that Tanzania could not tolerate the insecurity and the social and economic coats of the refuge**

Dar ei Salaam increasingly doubts the internaooazJ community's commitmcrit and ability to solve the rtgioua! refugee problem

The gorertuncot bs also sensitive to domesticand demands from within the ruling party to address the refugee issue before Tanzania's first-ever multiparty election is held ir. laic October.

In February, Mwinyi approved "Operation Sweethich called for Tanzaouan military andforces to seal the border, secure all camps,war criminals, and escort repatriating refugeesen late March, Dai cs Salaamlose the border. i

The Mwirtyi government appears committed toits hardenedto Improve the ruliag party's standing before the election, and its attitude wsfl be driven by perceived thrraU of mart refugees and Burundian incursions. In addition, Dar cs Salaam probably views Zaire's recent forcible expulsion of tncjusands of Rwsadaa refugeesotential Tanza-man optica. The gowssrneat could use Zaire's lead as an excuse- to beginwhich would Mna muchdomestic support-1

ramrnt ReeaarusUseWskssssstMat

Tariiania4 acceptedefugees who Red (he violence in Rwanda, andesser client, Burundi. Early this year, however, the govermneni became concert"ed after the UN anxtouaccd thai il cook) no songer manage the large refugee caseload Tanzania has consistently claimed thai theave ruined the local economy, brought biseeuriiy do Or area, errppled the wesson regions' weak infra structure, sad destroyed she eniiionmcni fAafasssVal

In June, (he TPDF fired warning shots atrefugees arternndag to cross ifttoto the press. UN officials claimed thatregulaily harassed and robbedto the press, and it was repelling opof them weekly. i

Mwinyi dispatched more troops in Juneid to prevent more refugees from entering Tanzania, He informed UN Assistant Secretory Genera! Kouyate in July that Tanzania would rxx accept additional refugees oader any circtaristancea.r

ft* bSSfwn) (loads ea "Oprraico Sweetot Taaea

islrict

scriaJ

Kage/4

fn

Tanzania

Ngara.District

Burundi

Kigoma

Questinning International Coinrnitairnt

TbcMwiayi govenimen! iiicreasingly doubulenudooa)omrjutraent to solving the regional refugee crisis The UN publicly announced in June that It might need to reduce ajiimnye to thesignificantly because of funding ihonfalis. A

rYyerm Speaks OUen Rtfugirt

Although formeryerere aahallt refrained from ipeakmg publicly cm iheir call fn June for ate return of all Rwandanmphastud thai the intimailonal community must foster repatriation and thai Kigali miuti FMandtm HhIuj to retw

The government has been criticized by officials in the border area and by members of parliament from affected districts. In May. the National Assembly called on the government to expel alllaiming that districts along the border aretate of war. according to the press.

Burundi Bccoiskbag the Focus of laraaaasssi's In

Arwsed ekassessts- probably- rogue BururadsM Armycrossed into Tanzania on severalthat year in pursuit of Hutu extremists allegedly operating in the wtntern regions Dar es Salaam has said the forays have terrorizedlong the border and destroyed theireess reports. Mwinyi publicly threatened ia

J

st Uun'i OptfaM

Aitrtcvgh Dar e* Salaam's planto lead an intttvcaDon force in Burundi wu hastily conceived and lacks Inicrnaaonal rapport, tbe government may act on lis own if mewed violence in Burundi threatens arcfaacc low. W* also believeuruncLan nsuilar) uKursaonj cOMiaDC. the government may be forced to retaliate. Atminimum. Dar es Salaam would Dpifkaotly increase in deployment! along the borderprevesi atore refugees and me Burundua Army from crossing into

Although massive voluntary repatriation is unrealistic. Dar es Salaam believeswanda nan improved and may seea modest repatriation to disarm its domestic critics. Dar es Salaam almost certainly will continue to pressure Kigali sad the intcraaoonaJ cotrwnoniry gf repatnate refugees. However, if Dares Salaam determines chat Zaire's approach could prove useful, it may unilaterallyimilar repatrin-Don program

Dse e* Salaars Ksi oflerrd to help arrest and bring tol suspected genocide perpetrators, but Kigali and the UN have shown no signs of crnperntion. To accel-crate the process, the government could begin moist-rrmlty io arrest genocide perpeenuors ifthatlan would convince some Rwandan* to return and would force Kigali and the UN to cooper ate. Nevertheless, if Kigali and ihe UN decline to help and if political eoanfCTOom mourn. Dar es Salaam could implement pamotOTtersrlicm Sweet Home to faster repatriation.

Dnr es Salaann aimosi certainly hopes that its rigid stance on the refugee* wiD bwld popular support fa tbe CCM as the October election approaches. There ii widespread popular suppon for rcparriaong all refu gees, ad tbe CCM is trying to use the issue for pobn cat gain. Ahhoogh the increasingly popuuv opposition

has not capital: red on ihe refugee problem for now. tbe CCM warns to burnish its leadership position and preempt opposition criticism.

We believe that the refugee issue and securitywill help define the election, and we Judge that whoever wins, the nowo back downCM victory could leadlight easing of Ms sndrahlgee stance as the pobacal imperative to appear tough lessens, but, if. as wc expect, the oppevooeai&caa* par!laaxnrary seats, it will pressure the new governiutnt to addirsi die economic mad security prc^lein caused by theIT the opposition wins the presidency, however, we believe it may seek to establish its populist crcden Dais by hastening repatriation. Voters will espociactioas from any new regime and the refugees arc an easy target

Original document.

---

---