CUBA: PREPARING FOR THE FLOTILLA (DELETED) (W/ATTACHMENT)

Created: 3/2/1996

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

for the Flotilla!

The government isautious approach to todaylotilla in an effort to offset some of the damage done by its shootdown of two civilian aircraft last Saturday.

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Foreign Minister Robaina yesterday publicly said Cuba will act with "utmost restraint to avoid any new incidentsHavana, he said, wants to avoid "an escalation promoted by the Cuban-American rightontinuing the theme that Cuban-US citizens, not the US Government, are chiefly responsible for increased tension.

A Foreign Ministry official announced on Thursday that Havana would view the flotilla's presence belowhAir Defense Identificationa "provocation" but would take no action if it remained in international waters and airspace. Havana appears to be preparing to claim credit for restraint even if the flotilla never enters Cuban territory.

Special Analysis

the Shootdown f|

Last July, President Castro described the group's first leaflet drop over Havana as an "extraordinarydding that Cuba's patience could well be exhausted. The Foreign Ministryarning that, if additional territorial violations occurred, intruding boats could be sunk and aircraft shot down.

At home, the economy is beginning to recover from an economic contraction ofercent following the cutoff of Soviet aid

continued

Tup Seerct

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1 As it demonstrated last week in cracking down on the umbrella group Cuban Council, the government has kept dissidents marginalized and off-balance through infiltration, harassment, and imprisonment. BBt

The Castro government doubtlessegative US reaction tobut it seems to have been taken aback by the vehemenceresponse and the widespread international condemnation,

National Assembly President Alarcon and Foreign Minister Robaina were uncharacteristically unprepared while presenting

Limiting the Damagel

At mis point. Havana is trying to forestall any international sanctions and to do what it can tosut the incident behind it

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By painting Brothers to the Rescueogue organization, the Castro government is trying to improve its international image andto put pressure on the US to impose stronger restraints on the group's activities.

Original document.

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