AFRICA REVIEW

Created: 3/11/1996

OCR scan of the original document, errors are possible

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Review

6

Africa Review| I6

le Centrml Africa: Bcricw of Progm*

Ami of Concern'

Six year* after the current wave of democratiution hejuui in Sub-Saharan Africa, the lOcountries of Cental Africaixed record of progress and setbacks that urxfcracofes the frajjilliy of the process. This article, the firstlanned leriei, provide* aof the region'} progress and problem* encountered in the democratic ifi on. I

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Democracy in Central Africa: Review of Progress and Areas of Conccrni

V SoU; This article, the first innapshot of progress Inanil tonsolidation in Central Africa andthat could undermine the prveen inThe cntena used art based onas reported

Readers air cannoned mW the definition of democ-rocy and the assesrsnent of its insniiaionol andcomponents are she subject of considerable debate among politital theorists, who do not agree on any tingle frantworkfor evaluating progress and|

Sii years after the current wave of democratization began south of the Sahara, iheountries of Central Africa1ery mixed recced of progress and setbacks that underscores ihc rragjhry of the process

All but Chad. Rwsndi. and Zaire have heldmultiparty national electiont. AlthoughCameroon and Congoo Centralviiite lus >ei ccmpleiedecond natirnalessential to consolidate initial gains

prmcl

Mopovcnibed Sao Tome and :ipe. cinagTack ofoswoned it*election that had hern scheduled for March untilnd may postpone ll indefinitely.

* In Sao Tboic. rebellions soldsrrshort-lived COOp last August that was reversed by Angolan and Western donor pressure. In addition to poorand living conditions ihe soldiers cited iosti -tudonal failing;eason for their ancmpi.cryptic referencerotracted squabblingeen the President and the National Assembly approved

1 lin^l, CvneroM, CrMnl African Republic, dud.Guinea.nda, Sao Toot *kJrj

Prime Ministeronstitution iatended to limit the former's powers. | [

Eitenston of elected gosemmcntgreater responsibilities lo die local level isslowly. To the chagnn of Cameroon'sBiya regime has appointed- as municipal-govemmcni delegates who function asin eight major urban areas that the oppouDoalast lanuary's local elections, which the rulingit *wept except in the west and north. Ithai Equatorial Guinea held lastvirtually meaningless

1 [municipal councils there arc largely powerless and underfunded, and Presidentarry manipulated the remits in its favor.

Twoandfailed because of ethnic inability to share power. Their transitions were built around constitutions that provided for winner-take all decooos and pres.den ual-domsnaiu umtary slates that made no arrange mem for giving the losing ethniclake in the system, such as through federalism or sharing posts in the cabinet and other rational institutions. Unlike Burundi. Rwanda's transition never made it3 peace accord between if then Hutu government and Tutsialled foe the formationroad based interim government and elections bytut the governmentwiih President Habyanmana's assassination inhe explosion of genocide, aad the takeover by armed Tutsi exiles who promisedelections no earliern Burundi, hostile Tutsi maneuvering has rendered the elected

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Hutu government virtually powerless In4 itercent pnwenhannj; arrangement with the Tutsi minority, which account! for aboutercent of the population but dominate* the armed force*.i

ld Guard Clings On

In the face of domestic and international pressure* for political liberaluation, ihe majority of Central Africa's old-guard leaders haw managed lo maiDtainaccess to the perks of office for theirconoolling the pace and scope of denvscrnbzabotv

leaders wearing dernocratic cloth ia first, hot flawed multiparty presidential election* hive retained office in Carncrooo. Equatorial

nd Gabon. Presidents Deby of Chad and Mobutu of Zaire expect to follow suit

New elected leaders have appeared only in Central African Republic. Congo, and Sao Tome. Burundi's lair President Ndadaye. its first elected Hutu head of sutc. was assassinated3ailed Tutsi coup, three months after taking office.

Opposition parries have managed toroper tionally larger share of seals in legislatures primarily in those states where new leaden also emerged in fini elections. Cameroon's old-guard President, whose ruling parry lacks aa elected parliamentary majority, nevertheless has co-opted two small opposition groups to still dominate the National Assembly, f I

Difficulty Sharing Power

Central African leaders, both old and new. and then political opponents display in varying degree aall mentality that often makes difficult ihe compromise and powershartng that arc essential to functional democracy.

majority of heads of state display limitedfor legal opposition, an seen by their resistance to demands to level the playing field through reform ol electoral rules and machinery.

Opposition dement* ia Fo anion al Guinea andin particular, are subject to frequeni harast-mem by regime *ecurity forces.

Most leaders and ruling group* are willing to accepi atartially free press, but they are reluctant lo permit private radio and TV stations or allow the opposition more man limited access to state-owned broadcast media. In Sao Tome..no rearrictiont cxi*t, but no private radio stations have appeared '

In Central Africa, government concern about the emergence of pnntt broadcastoder scored by Rwanda's and Burundi's experiences wiih ethnically divisive radio. In Rwanda, the former Ttadio Milk Conines- was the Hutu extremists'vrrnck for manor, and directing* mnsv genocide ofn Burundi, the budding radical Hutu insurgency reliesadio station known asVoice of Democracy"Mir support lo Gabon, the main opposition's unlicensed "Radio Liberty" was set up before rlw controversiallection and destroyed two months later Iry security forces. Whilehatet*broadcasts increased political tensions.

Multiparty Ism allowed

rwad ot state contest frcamiir

national election he td

national election completed

local government

meant tolerance of opposition

has seats In elected legislature

or Judiciary show some Independence

broadcast madia permitted

Democracy In Central Africa:

Transition behind achedule

manipulating retornVbocktrscklng

elections

ol Independent election commission

paralysis

party/paramilitary militia

pay. living conditions

groups/civil war

agitation

and Burundi'socrabc transitions are not included.

is trtcJear whether Congo will create an rdepervMnt olotfo-ol commission lor7 elecbons Wr^ partial logisisJrve elections were held3ollowing months of civ* strte. superv&on took place under tr* terms of the3 Libreville Accords by the Cofegeultinational panel ol seven magistrates provided by the EU, OAU. Gabon, and France

Note:ot AppUcabla

Democracy tn Central Africa; Opposition Representation inlim'

Seat) RaHac. Kuiinp Oppodilo"

fartv o (DM orv

rOM)

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39 4*

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Caae-sl Africa

it

Republic

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defused political tensions exacerbated by the3 presidential election that erupted into violent clashes between opposition demonstrators- andity forces inn independentcommission is to be established, followed by local elections by April and legislative elections by May. Meanwhile, the ruling pany dominated National Assembly has passed legislation to replace ihe presidential guardew force that isforbidden to be used against the opposition Three independent radio Marions, including one close lo the main camosjrjoo, are now licensed to broadcast

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isl sentiment among ine Anglophone rninoni) ias grown eaamabcalty in the past year because ofPresident Biya's refusal k. meet demands for federalism and recognition of culturalToken constitutional reforms' rammed through the regime-dominated National Assembly last December provide for elected regional assem-blies with limited power whiletrong presidential, unitary stale. Late President Ahidjo abolished theyear-old experiment with federalism2eferendum dominated by the more populous Francophone East Cameroon.he former Briush administered West Cam croonN plebiscite resulting in its northern portion joining Nigeria and the rest joining cx-French CarMroon ia what is today's indcpendeni

Movement in Central Africa toward create/ dtmocra Oration will remain stow, turbulent, and sabjoct to set backs or reversals. Unlike Africa's otherrude oil reserves in Gulf of GuineaEquatorial Guinea, Gabon. Congo, and Zaire are oilChad add to (he slakes in thestruggle between incumbent ruling and opposition groups. Determination by most leaders to resist any more sharing of power than is necessary, together with weakly performing economics, risks adding to the cynicism of disadvantaged groups about the value of

ixed Signals on Democracy in Central Africa

ihr Wrttem power with ihe max! lubitaniiat Interests in Central Africa', has displayed mixed signals in tuppomng the rrpern's tenuous and often chaaiie democraiiyition proem Competing interests and sncrrartngty limited resourcei cause Pahs loeniouratrmtnl of democracyesire to also maintain liability, protect Us privileged trade and investment access, and avoid the appearance of neocolonial interference:

maintains that each African country must be allowed lo purine political liberalization at itsown pace. Paris has displayed tolerance forelections, as in Cameroon, but refused to provide election obstrveri for Fauatorial Guinea's btuiunity fraudulent presidential election held last February.

Cmtml Afiwm KtpmUH. Chad. Cmga.Cohanftit* tiJm^milApiemiwiorinmrtr mdegndmi nInudJUwm.

Zvia>lnU|w<

Eeaarw! OmUwa.forme' Ijpvuit wW> Kti

the French cvf*aiImMhaclid CFAftani

tone

has sought to path Chad to reorganize and downsize iu bloated armedforcet during the itthere, but has hadliale ntfw.r

France will maintain iismtt-man troop contingent in N'Djamena unlit democratic elections can be completed.

Partisan manipulation, uneven electoral playing fields, and poor economic management pro* vide an environment for military intervention and eruption of civil strife that may encourage the spreat of ethnic militias or add to insurgent and separatist sentiment. I I

Peace pacts in Gabon and Congo will be tested, as rival groups head into second-ever dections this year and neat Fledgling democracy in tbe Central African Republic is threatened by the country's virtualthat could spur military or labor unrest Although calm on theeep divide remains between SaoTome'i military and its fragile elected government with living conditions unlikely to improve substantially. In Congo and Chad, respective efforts to

integrate party militia into the military and tothe armed forces require careful management to avoid potenua! regisne-dweateeung unrest Resistance to meaningful change by recalcitrant leader* inGuinea and Cameroon reduce avenues for peaceful pursuit of reform. q

Difficult and slow-moving transitions in Chad and Zaire may be approach: ag as end stage andmessy first-ever democratic cJectinnv

long prom-

ised cretin ns in Chid dieyoop beforehand or afterward is possible should

Democracy in Central Afrit*:Flection

Manh Chad

June

Sew Tome and

Principe:

referendum on net* constitution, toby schedulingand

Tentaii vr date for second multiparty presidential electionay be June postponed indefinitely. haw-

Cameroon: Second multipartyelection2 to be held.

Congo; Second multipartyelection2 is due.

Congo: Second multipartyelection3 is due.

Ma,

elections due to be held by this dose under4 Pans Accords.

Saaonal legislative elec turn due to be held by this dose under4 Porn Aceordi

July

e

October Cameroon:

deadline for national el*coons lo be held.

Second nttdttparty prtuden -Hal election2 is due

s

upper house, the largely consultative Senate, are due under the4 Paris Accords.

to manipulate his victory in elections that are due by7 unless Ihe transition slips further. If it becomes clear that Mobutu risks losing, he and senior Army officers may refuse lo cede control. Any spillover from neighboring Burundi ofethnic lighting and new refugee Hows could worsen the security and electoral environment in eastern Zaire

f

Original document.

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