Created: 10/18/1980

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National Intelligence Daily .'



Top Saw

probably hopes to enhance his own political standing in

Iran byardline against Iraq in the Security

Council and by publicly rebuffing any US offer to negotiate

the hostage crisis.

uol Shortages

Periodic sorties against Iraqi targets, including Baghdad, will continue in order to keep the Iraqis off balance and to demonstrate that Iran still has the capa-

bility to strike deep inside Iraq.

Before tho outbreak of hostilities, the Abadanwas the primary source of Iranian jet0 barrels per day. Three older refinoriaa normally producedarrels per day

each. I

However, if one of the two hydro-cracking units at the new Esfahan refinery has started up,arrels per day of jet fuel could be produced. The status of these units is unknown;


While jet engines car. runumber of similar products, severe damage to engines can result from using nonstandard fuels. The availability of additives such as antifreeze could be critical. Given Iran's need toequipment, it is unlikely they would use straight kerosene in their aircraft except in dire circumstances.

Resupply Efforts

Iran and Iraq are attempting to purchase largeof medical supplies suggesting that both sides are preparingrotracted struggle. Neither side was prepared medically for the current conflict and mosthave been depleted, f



Cuba's Foreign Minister Malraierca stopped over loscow between stops in Baghdad and Tehran during his mediation trip earlier this week and was seen off by Soviet First Deputy Foreign Minister Korniyenko, suaaest-ing that the two consulted on the Cuban efforts.

Gulf Shipping

Iraq yesterday officiallynited Nations proposal for evacuation under the UN flag of ships trapped in the disputed Shatt al Arab waterway. Iran on Monday had indicated that it would agree to the proposal if Iraq did so. (u>


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